Saturday 18 April 2020

The Stock Markets: Only For High-Risk Investors.

Would I put money in stocks now? No, other than in gold and silver stocks. But even that is a crap shoot, though the trend is your friend.

It's all about the bear and bull and anyone who tells you we're in a secular bull is downright crazy. Never have we fallen this far this fast, so I don't know of any market indicator that remotely comes close to that.

Take 1929 for example: during the bear, there were five -- count 'em -- five rallies. More importantly, the first one led to a fifty percent gain before ultimately crashing below that level. Doesn't mean that 2020 will be a carbon copy but the road ahead hardly looks promising.

In short, it takes far more guts than I've got to trade this market. My gut is still waiting for the other shoe to fall. Next time, I don't expect a 30-35% retrenchment but rather more like a 60% drop. 

To paraphrase Thatcher: you buy the dips if you want to, but this guy's not for turning.

No comments:

Post a Comment