Saturday, 28 November 2020

Why QE To Infinity Won't Work Even Under Biden.

Doug Casey calls it The Greater Depression. I prefer The Greatest Depression humankind will have seen to date. And assuredly, it's on the way. Let's start with the why: to begin, if this ongoing financial crisis has taught us anything, it's that you can't deflate the debt with unlimited QE, Yield-Curve Control, MMT, dropping interest rates, negative interest rates or reducing the velocity of money to zero. None of that works, period.

So the debate right now is on whether we are still in deflation or in an escalading inflationary period where prices are steadily rising along with capital input costs. Central banks are pushing for two percent inflation -- all the while they are cooking the inflation books -- not to mention the actual nominal value of how much QE they have already spent since this crisis began. Here's a hint: ultimately, it will be way beyond the few trillions of dollars they'd like us to believe. Just look at 2008: One estimate calculates that The Fed and the federal government spent a combined 498 Billion, with The Fed's portion being 21 Billion. But reality is even more crushing: The Fed actually spent 29 Trillion on Wall Street banks' trading houses and lending money to other national central banks and foreign banks. 

In that sense, today's financial crisis is but an extension of the last one, where in the intervening years, nothing was done to address debt and deficits, banking and corporate investment practices nor the canary in the coal mine known as derivatives and junk bonds-- the satanic instruments of the financial services industry across the globe. In 2008, they pedaled and pushed garbage as it related to mortgages and other securities and they are doing the same now. All that counts for them is greed. They don't give a tinker's damn about the soundness of the American economy, much less the economic welfare of the American people. In a more just society, we would remedy these deliberate deficiencies either with a jail cell or at least on a theoretical plane, a firing squad. Nothing like concentrating a few minds on Wall Street and breaking longstanding investment patterns for the greater good.

And then there's the question of arguing about or ignoring legitimate facts, none of which is greater than the absolute insolvency of the investment and money-center banking community. Its most recent roots can be traced back to September 2019 when The Repo Crisis took shape with The Fed coming in on a white horse to avert disaster. IMHO, that was the beginning of the end if you will, the execution date, largely postponed by Fed monetary clemency.

Powell's initial instincts were at least in partial terms on target: if you're talking about a world that has sound economic, market and money policy. He started to increase interest rates but then was quietly persuaded by the political powers that be to change course, not to mention The New York Federal Reserve, which now, as in 2008, actually runs the show. Three guesses who owns The New York Fed... To put it another way: like in 2008, QE was and is the appropriate mitigating instrument but it's definitely not the cure-all. Rather, in the long-term, it only kicks the can further down the road and intensifies the economic calamity that ultimately and inevitably comes to pass. But there comes a point where QE deliberately intertwined with a steady reduction of interest rates become at best, counterproductive and at worst, increasingly ineffective. In short, the longer QE is in place, the less bang for the buck you get with an inevitable cut-off date in the offing. 

When Biden takes office, he will simply rubber-stamp present monetary policy and call for ever increasing QE, along with further reducing interest rates to net zero. He's won't pursue a policy of negative rates. Thank God.

What the United States needs is increased inflation, a return to a gradual growing of money velocity and slow and steady interest rate increases. Those are the signs of a healing and growing economy. So, you have to think out of the box: you keep QE in place for now and adjust it according to the underlying strength of the economy. In short, you take the economic poison pill now, post-election for two reasons: a) to avert an even greater economic disaster by punting the crash down the road and b) you adjust QE as necessary to buoy an economy that is finally going through hell-rehab but well on its way to growing eventual green shoots of a base for recovery. Like I said, Powell's initial instincts were correct to normalize the economy as fast and as humanly as possible. Help Joe and Jane stay afloat economically but get back to true capitalism, at least as it relates to a market economy, as soon as possible.

Sadly, politicians live in a world of less pain even at the cost of economic gain. That's where the United States is going with an economy that's already DOA and with capitalism long flushed down the dumper. Today's it's only and all about crony capitalism as the top gets richer and the bottom suffers horribly over a record and protracted period of time. 

It could have been otherwise. The days of soft economic landings are now nothing but a pipe dream.

Monday, 23 November 2020

Is It Really About The Trump Brand?

Not on your life. Trump is finally doing the inescapable not because it's right or even overdue, but because once again, it's all about him. Not his brand, not his business empire, HIM.

He knows that pretty well most of his court challenges have been laughed out of court. Trump also recognizes that it's futile to resist any longer. 

It has finally dawned on him that the history books are important -- that it's not in his interest to outshine only James Buchanan, if that's even remotely possible. 

It's not for the country or the Republican party. Nah, it's just about HIM, HIM, HIM. What else is new?

Same old, same old. Seriously, are any of you actually surprised? Not me.

Now, it's all about Ivanka and imposing her as nominee in make Trump look good and keep him still in control of the party going forward.

Trump can't be king so he'll damn sure make sure that Republicans do his bidding, even after leaving office. So, Ivanka is the Trump extension.

You know Republicans. Not known generally speaking for a sliver of backbone. 

Like I said, we end where we began: it's all about Trump. Nothing else.

Saturday, 21 November 2020

The Ivanka And Jared Plan?

Does it exist? I certainly think so for 2024. Remember Trump not so subtly gave away the plan in that Oval Office photo: a broadly smiling Ivanka sitting at The Resolute Desk with a grinning father on one side and Trudeau on the other. A Trump Family Dynasty, à la Bushes.

So, you've got the do or die crowd on one side, headed by himself with a dutiful Don Jr. and Eric in tow. For them, it's at maximum, all about the short game.

Then you've got the far more politically savvy Ivanka and Jared on the other, urging a Trump statesman-like concession -- not so much in the interests of political propriety or a calm and safe transition -- more like in their future best political interests: 2024 will be all about crossover and Ivanka will need every possible vote to win. Poor Pence. Hasn't even got a clue that the fix is already in in Republican circles. In short, what The Old Man Trump wants, The Old Man gets what with most elected Republicans being their usual spineless jellyfish. Right, Mitch? Right, Lindsey?

In short, Trump has already greased the skids for Ivanka and you can bet on it happening, unless she somehow ends up in the slammer post-Trump Administration, which yours truly regards as highly unlikely.

Monday, 16 November 2020

No Biden Economic Miracle Ahead.

Don't get me wrong, I'm way beyond thrilled that Trump was politically dispatched in this election. In fact, I quite literally thank God for that. 

But I'm certainly not expecting an economic miracle in the wake of Biden being sworn in as President of the United States.

I find myself of two minds on this: I favour increased federal government spending on those who've lost everything: businesses, homes, cars, savings and even their ability not to experience food insecurity. So, I welcome the incoming president who will reveal in office that he actually has a heart and sincere empathy for those presently in dire need.

However, the other part of me worries they're not biting the bullet and not taking our bad economic medicine in due course will only prolong and artificially accentuate the economic misery. 

In other words, the actual depression will be far longer and far more cruel, in individual terms, because of The Fed sugar high that quite deliberately keeps zombie companies afloat that should have long gone under, even before the onset of this pandemic. 

This is primarily about economic mitigation on the margins. It is absolutely not about true economic reforms as it relates to fiscal policy or the carte blanche left long ago by Bill Clinton to the financial services industry. They are all about Yes We Can, and they sure have to the economic detriment of the United States. All they care about is making money and spectacularly so, by the derivative poison pill, and quite deliberate rigging of the precious metals market, the commodities market generally and conversely, the artificial propping up of crude oil.

They are, for all intents and purposes criminal banksters with little to no corporate or personal accountability. In short, peanut fines come their way roughly one-tenth of what they make using their criminal strategies and surprise, surprise, no one goes to jail at the very top of these disreputable institutions, just like in 2008.

Governments, be they Republican or Democrat remain the willing handmaidens of the financial services industry. In short, they do their biding and that won't change even with Biden in the White House.

Crony-capitalism will continue to rule the roost as countless millions suffer in their wake. The revolving door from Wall Street into Treasury will also continue, much to the disadvantage of the American people. 

In fact, a new incoming administration changes precisely nothing with the Wall Street vampires continuing to call the tune.

No wonder they remain all smiles over at The Fed. Their corporate masters will still be running the show. Cry America, cry.

Sunday, 8 November 2020

Putting On Your Man and Woman's Pants.

First off, I'll go with the proposition that most Americans, whether they happen to be Democrats, Republicans, Independents or something else believe in capitalism and electoral democracy. That's the first point you have in common.

Now to the second: you are or SHOULD BE AMERICANS FIRST, LAST AND ALWAYS. That means treating each other with respect and giving the other side a fair hearing. You don't have to necessarily agree or even change your perspective but all of you owe each other respect.

Thirdly, both sides have every right to go before the courts if they have political grievances. But they must be based on solid evidence, not staged videos!

Remember that the President of the United States doesn't even know how the courts, he can't go straight to the SCOTUS. He has to go to Federal Court, Trial Division (District Court). If he wins there, then it's on to the Federal Court of Appeal (Circuit Court) and finally, if he wins again to the Supreme Court.

Look at Bush vs. Gore in 2000: Gore conceded to Bush and then took it back. It took three months before the case reached the SCOTUS and they ruled in Bush's favour, who became President.

Democrats didn't like it -- I didn't like it and I'm not even a citizen -- but they did the right thing and accepted it. That's Democracy.

We all know that Democrats and Republicans are not idiots or fools. Neither party wants to take this to civil war 2 and I don't blame them. Killing their fellow Americans, men, women and children is nobody's game. Thank God for that level of sanity across America. Up here in Canada, we fortunately never went down that route.

So...when the court challenges are settled one way or another, it will be up to both sides to put on their Man and Woman's Pants and accept the result.

The United States is a civilized country. That's why Americans basically have no other final option. Remember, God is watching. Please don't make him cry because of rivers of blood in the streets. America is far better than that, and all of you know it.

Thursday, 5 November 2020

Trump Supporters: Society's Litmus Test Awaits.

Let me start off by saying that I've always gone out of my way not to bucket Trump supporters by automatically or reflexively labeling them as morons or simply unprincipled.

I've given them the benefit of the doubt that yes, they do indeed know right from wrong, they are honorable people who actually have ethics and are basically honest in their love of country.

You can have no greater quality than having the ability to put your country first and look out for the economic and political best interests of the American people.

Now, for all practical purposes,  the election is over. It's time for Trump supporters to face society's litmus test by stepping up in the national interest for what is right, decent, honest and downright American.

Donald Trump, post-election, has shown himself to be unprincipled, indecent, a liar and worst of all, a traitor not only to the rule of law but also to the democratic best interests of the American people.

That piece of shit is seemingly on television or on Twitter practically every day making baseless and uncorroborated allegations that he knows in the first place are both lies and factually groundless. There's no massive -- or even minimal -- election fraud taking place during this election. Trump is nothing more than a stinking liar who has zero pieces of evidence to backup his completely bogus claims of election fraud. In other words, that asshole is quite deliberately choosing to not put up nor shut up. In short, the man has absolutely no evidence of election fraud but he puts it out there anyway.

So, Trump supporters you have a choice: you can continue to support him and believe his lies or you can say enough is enough. Let all the votes be counted and may the chips fall where they may. 

The plain truth is simple enough: the last serious or widespread voter fraud occurred during Kennedy vs. Nixon. There's been nothing else proven since!

So, society's litmus test awaits: you can stand on the side of honesty and the facts, or you can stick with Trump and his lies. If you're a person of principles and ethics, you can show it now or do the opposite and continue to support Trump. It's put up or show time now. Will you help save American democracy and electoral integrity, or will you simply destroy your own country?

You can be Barry Goldwater, Hugh Scott and John Rhodes, or you can reduce yourself to the level of Donald J. Trump. Make your choice and then take a good long and hard look in the mirror. I hope you'll like what you see when all of this is over and done with because one way or another, you'll have to live with what you did, or didn't do, when America was in crisis and in need of your help.

Please don't fail the United States in her time of need. Be the best that you can be and stand up for what is right and decent in your country, or just be yet another Trump...

Wednesday, 4 November 2020

Boy Was I Ever Full Of Shit. LOL.

But Kinsella put it best: a win's a win. And in that vein looks like it's going to be like this:

BIDEN: 271

TRUMP: 262 (At best.)

Tuesday, 3 November 2020

Election 2020: Here it Is!

For sure, it will either be egg on my face time or champagne time.

Here you go:

Biden: 310
Trump: 228

Senate: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
House: Democrats +25 Seats than at Dissolution

Sunday, 1 November 2020

Trump vs. Biden: It's Not That Simple.

Yes, you bet I'm still uneasy as hell. My stomach remains unsettled. Given this economy and the way that Trump has mishandled the COVID-19 emergency, at least in theory we should be heading for a monumental Biden blowout. It should be no contest for Biden but will it be?

Sure, the polls are, by and large, underrepresenting Trump's support: remember when Kinsella initially raised the shy Trump voter? Well, no question, that's still very much in play coupled with the fact that people want to be politically correct to pollsters and may not necessarily voice their support for Trump. 

Another key issue that shouldn't be is BlackLivesMatter -- but it is, not because of how protesters have behaved, mostly peacefully but because Trump has so skillfully distorted reality and lumped this sacred cause in with Antifa and other anarchist groups. No question, this will hurt Biden perhaps more than I realize at the polls. Unfortunately, it shows you that in politics, if you repeat a lie strongly and frequently enough it gets serious traction even if you've pretzeled the facts beyond sane recognition. In short, to some extent, as yet unmeasurable, Trump has been and is still entitled to his own facts and that's patently unacceptable but nonetheless reality.

Then there's the elephant in the room that no one wants to address: the WE, or if you prefer, TheWomen'sEquation: think back to Ferraro and Palin as VEEP candidates, and of course, Hillary's two presidential runs. Notice how they all lost, with their respective tickets going down in flames. Coincidence? I don't think so. People are finally starting to seriously address subtle racism in the United States but no one seemingly is looking into subtle sexism as it relates to a presidential party ticket. They should be. And believe me, it isn't only men that are enthusiastically into the latter.   

I'm very much for Biden but I'm quite frankly worried that a Biden-Harris ticket won't cut a lot of mustard in some voting areas across the United States. I'm still predicting a Biden win but am seriously concerned that this could end up as another Kennedy-Nixon race.

I don't see a Trump win but I'm also not prepared to discount it entirely. Nixon was serially lucky to have the so-called Silent Majority in his corner. God help America, not to mention all the rest of us across the globe, if Trump has even half of the support that Nixon had.

In short, I'm confident of a Biden win but still not sleeping that well at night. That's why I'm impatient to know the results yesterday because this is nothing short of emotional torture. Let the chips fall where they may and hopefully it will be in the best interests of all of the American people.