Kinsellacast 259: A Thing Of Beauty And Thoughtfulness.

Warren Kinsella

Being Transgender.

If Poirot was with us, he would lament the lack of exercise given to those little grey cells by so many people. It's all about what's between the ears and right now, I'm not talking about transgender people.

Good God, do people someone think that gender identity is somehow unknowable, unclear until you turn 18 or 21? Give me a break.

There is no magic starter age: it goes with good old common sense, so it isn't 2 or 3 but it ain't generally 18 and over either...

All my life, I woke up every morning since my preteen years and positively knew without a shred of a doubt that I was a male and fortunate enough to be in my own skin and know it's right. So many others are not that lucky when it comes to gender identity. 

And here's a newsflash: you can't talk someone into gender identification and a desire to personally reassign one's perceived gender. It's already in the mind, in the heart and in your very soul. No one goes through that to be woke, because it's a fad or to be novel.

Imagine how much courage it must take to decide and then act. Going through psychological counseling and then a physical change takes more courage than most people will ever know.

Not 100% of those who change their gender identity will be at peace after proceeding. Fortunately, most people will. 

I'll never forget the talk I had at the office about trans bathrooms. At first blush, my colleagues were reflexively against. But then I broached the subject about trans teens being beaten up and feeling unsafe in both boys and girls bathrooms at school.

Suddenly, the light went on and people were then at least open to hearing more.

That's all I ask. The evolution of society is often glacial and not necessarily based on sound or continuous reflection by the masses. That's how we got slavery, a woman's place is in the home, discrimination based on sex, race, religion, sexual orientation, etc.

In 2023, none of those concepts have any merit or legitimacy. And so inevitably will it be with trans rights and discrimination based on same. It can't happen soon enough for me.

United States: Abortion Restrictions Or Bans.

This is a topic that quite literally fills me with rage. The United States is the new Canada, however in our case, provinces and territories are prohibited constitutionally from regulating abortion. 

But I have to take the emotion out of it to be at least credible: in a country like the United States where states are sovereign to such a large extent, federal abortion legislation needs to be in place in one form or another so that a hodgepodge of state legislation does not create second-class citizens who happen to be women. 

In the wake of overturning Roe v. Wade, twelve states have already banned abortion and others have imposed restrictions. Even legally, this is a mess: some laws brought in by legislatures have been declared unconstitutional by the courts, while in other states the same type of legislation was declared by the courts as respecting that state's constitution. Go figure.

But in the main, legislatures as the duly elected representatives of the people have the power to pass legislation regulating or outlawing abortion, and it's perfectly legal. I say to people that if you like what they did, and now I'm speaking to women, vote all of them back in. But if you don't, mobilize and vote all of them out. This battle takes me back to ERA in the 1970s and 80s, and we all know how those efforts turned out.

What confounds me is how men are so easily not troubled about passing legislation that affects women exclusively and dictates both their rights, to the extent that they exist, and their obligations. And then there's at least the plurality of women who allow all of this to take place without political consequences for those legislators. Women have the power in the end. They need to drop the subconscious victim mentality and coalesce into a political powerhouse. There are more women than men that vote. So, THEY should be calling the tune on abortion, its access, its restrictions and obligations, period.

The last thing we need to see is a return to secret or unprofessionally-performed abortions. Women will quite literally die in those so-called procedures. That's why the fight has moved on to pill-induced abortions. To women, I say, take control and determine for yourselves state positions on reproductive health and abortion services. In short, don't get politically rolled by men, whether they happen to be pro-life or pro-choice. Seize the issue and quite literally make all the political decisions in your state. After all, you are the voting majority in most states.

Jack Teixeira.

Here we go again. Teixeira is accused of leaking secrets that run the gamut from Confidential all the way up to Top Secret SCI or SAP.  He's part of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

If he's convicted, he'll get the book thrown at him. They say he's some kind of a right-winger. Maybe, maybe not. We'll find out at trial.

Some of this stuff is embarrassing: you know, eavesdropping on the Mossad, Bibi or South Koreans while other things are already known by the enemy as in NATO special forces operating in Ukraine. That one was no longer news quite a while ago. Then there's the fun part about Bibi trying to elect Trump, by dishing the dirt on HRC, after getting a promise on the Jerusalem ask. No kidding.

But where my blood boils is when Putin is given a heads up about how deeply his Defense Ministry has been penetrated. You don't really get that with signal intelligence now do you...so the search is now on for traitors and moles which inevitably means some incredibly reliable sources will die. And not just a hand-ful, I'll wager.

That's unforgiveable and in my book should mean a court martial and firing squad, if convicted. Nothing can truly deter domestic traitors but this is the best we've got to serve as an example.

So, this guy will be held accountable if convicted. National security demands at least that.

Powell Will Win The Battle But Lose The Inflation War.

Times of incredible crisis lie ahead. You see, inflation is dropping from roughly 6 percent to 5 and below, but that's temporary in nature. And it doesn't reflect inflation reality: I go with how consumer inflation was calculated in the 1980s and as such, inflation has actually dropped from around 16 percent to about 14. 

Everyone who's sentient knows that to really break the back of inflation, à la Volcker, you have to raise rates above the inflation rate: let's call rates 5 percent with some actually predicting either a pause, a pivot or an actual reduction due to "political" considerations.

Remember that Volcker took rates almost to 18 percent before inflation finally started to steadily go down in good measure. Does that mean that Powell in his heart of hearts wants to do the same? You bet he does, but he can't. He would have to take rates above 14 percent and that will never, ever, happen. So...expect far more incremental increases of 25 basis points, but along the way, a recession -- and not a mild one -- will force a pivot and probably immediate rate reductions, plural. 

That increases the odds of eventual hyperinflation, and that seems to be what gold is beginning to forecast, not as a definite but as a highly likely outcome. Maybe, we'll even see 2200-2300 gold.

It's fashionable these days in and out of Fed circles to shit on Arthur Burns. Wait until we get into the mother of all recessions. Once that happens, Powell might as well change his name to Mudd. Won't be pretty, especially for him, but also for the rest of us.

Mifepristone: National Approval Suspended.

This pill was about to be approved nationally, until a Trump-appointed Federal District judge in Texas suspended its introduction writ large. That ruling will likely go before Circuit judges next, and perhaps all the way to the SCOTUS.

You know my position on abortion rights: the elephant in the room is that abortion vs. right to life is often all about who gets to control women and their bodies -- abortion rights say it's the woman who decides about her body. Right to life prefers to set down judicial touchstones, which they, of course, never describe as judicial activism, when in fact it's nothing but that. They also like when legislatures, where men rule, call the tune in a given state.

The fun part is examining the individual and collective male mindset of right-to-lifers: are their relationships with their likely better halves 50-50? Are they controlling, possessive and directional in tone? You bet they are. In Quebec, we call these women les femmes soumises.

You know me and how much fun I have in describing these men: insecure about and pondering the question of penis inadequacy, trying to boost their individual manliness in the wake of a troubled sexual identity, and the list goes on. 

My own father used to say, never let a woman get over you. I can tell you that he got nowhere with my mother. LOL. But all of you get that mentality, that idea of knowing what is "best" for women is, of course, quite naturally, what is best for men! Unreal. It all goes back to the former honour and obey in marriage vows. 

In 2023, I won't be fighting women's battles for them. I expect they will do that all on their own. And win. And if some men can't accept that, then fuck 'em.

Just Great...The Short Sellers.

Well, the short-sellers are enthusiastically shorting both TD and Scotia, expecting both of them to go belly up, thanks to their American divisions.

Just fucking great. That's all that we need. It's Depression time.