Saturday 29 October 2022

Midterms: The Incoming Tide Is Republican.

No question about that. Republicans will win big in the midterms up and down the ballot, largely due to independents, who've abandoned the Democrats. This thing has seesawed back and forth, but Republican momentum is now clear and perhaps unshakable: Walker and Oz are proof enough of that. 

The generic congressional polls show that the Republican tide may eventually turn into a landslide, but more than likely not a rout for Democrats. 

And then there's the terrible attack on Paul Pelosi. People will be appalled, disgusted, but will it ultimately move enough votes to mitigate or reverse the Republican trend? Who knows. It's the only thing not already baked into the cake.


RealClear Politics:

Polling Data

PollDateSampleRepublicans (R)Democrats (D)Spread
RCP Average10/12 - 10/27--48.045.1Republicans +2.9
Data for Progress (D)**10/26 - 10/271217 LV4945Republicans +4
Trafalgar Group (R)10/25 - 10/271089 LV4842Republicans +6
Rasmussen Reports10/23 - 10/272500 LV4942Republicans +7
InsiderAdvantage10/25 - 10/25750 LV4844Republicans +4



FiveThirtyEight:

Generic ballot, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,217LVDemocrat
45%
49%
Republican Republican+4
642LVDemocrat
48%
47%
Republican Democrat+1
1,089LVDemocrat
42%
48%
Republican Republican+6
2,500LVDemocrat
42%
49%
Republican Republican+7
1,014RVDemocrat
48%
45%
Republican Democrat+3

Sunday 23 October 2022

Midterms: The Economy Number One, Inflation Number Two.

What an election is ahead: neither Biden nor Trump are on the ballot, but both have negatives above 50%. That will affect results in the midterms. 

With roughly two weeks to go, I won't be making any predictions just yet, but I want you to enjoy the last leg of the race.

Here are the two places to go to. Don't miss them.


FiveThirtyEight | FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.


RealClearPolitics - Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls


Saturday 22 October 2022

Xi Is Now Dictator.

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party has come to a close and in public fashion, Xi has put the final touches on the purge -- Hu was unceremoniously escorted out of the meeting allegedly for health reasons -- but seemingly showing resistance to leave, at least at first.

It was a spectacular and dramatic display that sent exactly the right message: Xi's takeover of the party is now complete.  Jiang and Zhu were nowhere to be found at the Congress, and Hu's protégée, Li, lost his position as number two on the Standing Committee. That means he'll be replaced as Premier soon enough.

But as they say, live pictures don't lie: just check out the guy who was sitting on Hu's left: the guy is sweating throughout and that says it all. He even takes out a handkerchief to wipe his face. End of story. That's pretty much it.

Of course, all of this has wider implications for world peace: first, Putin and his adventurism in Ukraine and now Xi unchallenged, who could strike at Taiwan at any time without being checked internally. Call it the second leg of the WW III stool. All we need now is the last leg, and where will that come from? Iran, North Korea, or somewhere else? Not good.

Québec Solidaire et le Parti Québécois: refus du serment d'allégeance au souverain.

Pourtant, la Loi constitutionnelle 1982, à l'article 128, est clair: pour siéger, les membres de l'Assemblée nationale doivent porter le serment d'allégeance au souverain, le roi Charles III. Québec Solidaire et le Parti Québécois refusent. 

On cite une décision de la Court of Appeal for Ontario sur la déclaration du serment qui stipule que le serment est plutôt porté envers les institutions démocratiques et le gouvernement. Voilà le raisonnement de Paul St-Pierre Plamondon et les autres.

Premièrement, cette décision est une décision qui porte sur une loi fédérale, mais elle est limitée au territoire géographique de cette province.

Le débat constitutionnel au Québec semble indiquer d'une part que l'Assemblée nationale pourrait adopter une motion en chambre pour changer le serment. Ou, le gouvernement du Québec pourrait préparer un projet de loi dans ce sens. 

D'autres diront qu'il faudra adopter au fédéral un amendement constitutionnel avec un appui de toutes les législatures des provinces.

Pour ma part, je crois, au minimum, que l'Assemblée nationale devra non seulement adopter une motion, mais également une loi à cet effet. De plus, Québec devra pareillement envoyer une demande de renvoi devant la Cour d'appel du Québec. Et si la cour rend un jugement favorable, c'est beau.


Is This It?

The Federal Reserve is scrambling to prop up Swiss banks, via The Swiss National Bank, their central bank. 

Yahoo News and others are on top of it:



We all heard rumours about Credit Suisse. And what about UBS and other banks?

Thursday 20 October 2022

UK: They Truss No Longer.

Now, this is interesting. We know a few things now that Truss is gone: firstly, that stimulative income tax cuts don't necessarily go with high and seemingly galloping inflation. Secondly, what a disaster her policies have been for the British pound.

But what intrigues me is who was for Truss getting the boot. Was it only a plurality in caucus or was the party membership on the same wave length?

I think there was a psychological divorce there: caucus largely was for her resignation but not most of the party membership. So, expect trouble ahead and that will inevitably affect who becomes the next leader and PM. In short, expect another Johnson loyalist as it appears that Johnson won't be having a go -- he's too busy cashing in apparently on speeches -- or so they say.

Finally, how will this rollercoaster reverberate in our politics? Will it make our leaders more vulnerable to caucus' whims and dictates? I think so. Caucuses at all levels will be feeling their oats, empowered you might say. So, leaders had better tread rather lightly if they know what's good for them.

It could very well even lead to Liberal MPs finally getting religion and ditching their albatross at last, you know, the guy who can no longer get beyond useless minority governments. It might just end with Trudeau taking a hint and finally getting lost. We can only hope. Otherwise, caucus might end up giving him a big and final push out the door. Now that would be humiliating and likely to seriously unswell that head of his, such as it is...

Wednesday 19 October 2022

Will It Be Danielle Smith...

Or, will it be Danielle Smith! That depends mostly on her. You see, context and perspective rightly goes out the window once the drums of war start to beat. Smith learned that lesson the hard way. 

That's what makes this a killer political moment. Can she come back from this? Theoretically, sure but don't bet the farm on it.

Before the war, it was OK, if not misguided, to want Ukraine to remain neutral. That's what NATO wanted -- it's why they turned down membership for Ukraine the first time. Sweden and Finland lived and breathed their neutrality.

But war changes people and especially governments. Today, Sweden and Finland are being fast-tracked for NATO membership while other countries are also looking at joining.

But back to Smith. She seemingly gets it now but will it be politically forgiveable? I don't know but the apology might take the steam out of a potential caucus revolt...might.

As to the nuclear weapons angle, that one is easily forgiveable. Just think back to what Clinton and George W. said before they ultimately learned the foreign policy ropes. You can throw in Obama as well. 

So, this is going to be interesting, to say the very least. Right now, Smith comes off as politically unfit. It's disqualifying, some will say even after the apology. 

I've got my drink and popcorn handy, eagerly awaiting to see how this one turns out. Maybe it's Saint Paul on the road to Damascus but probably not.

Sunday 16 October 2022

Angus Reid: 50 to 37.

This is the way I like to dissect polls: who's ahead nominally and who's really ahead. To begin, this is a huge poll so it needs to be taken extremely seriously. Secondly, there's a debate about AR polls and how they possibly tend to over poll CPC numbers. I'm not qualified to support or refute that statement.

Now, back to the poll: it shows the CPC ahead in the nominal horse race and way ahead among men.

But, but, but, we trail badly with women -- who vote more reliably than men and who are by and large progressives. So, Pierre still has his work cut out for him to move that needle which the CPC hasn't done so far.

A plurality of Canadians support either the Trudeau Liberals or the NDP -- I can understand where diehard Liberals are coming from but geez, why anyone in their right minds would vote NDP after Jagmeet keeps selling himself to the Liberals is way, way, beyond me. But I digress.

So, what does polling generally say about women and climate change, the COVID-19 crisis and trucker protests? Where are women on inflation and a bad economy? I wonder what focus groups will ultimately reveal and whatever it is, we'll have to adjust our policy priorities accordingly in order to have a serious and clear shot at winning. Pierre seems to get that but can he bend sufficiently to make considerable inroads in the 905? We'll see.

So, burn that in our brains: it's 37 percent versus 50 and we need to move those numbers especially with voting women. That's the real big picture, not inflation or a bad economy. Those two issues alone won't sufficiently move those numbers for us. Period. In short, we won't win without women. We need to do what Harper did, at minimum, to win.




Saturday 8 October 2022

What Will Be The Pierre Principle?

This title is the ask of the decade: what will be Pierre Poilièvre's game plan to power, and will it work out spectacularly or blow up in his face? That doesn't depend on Byrne or anyone else. It depends on Poilièvre's own judgment and his strategic ability to play what's right to build further and continuous momentum until an election is called.

No doubt about it, Pierre is smiling right now: those ascending poll numbers are primarily based on two things: a crashing economy and increased inflation. Add to that Trudeau Fatigue, to put it politely, and you have the baseline for solid polling advances. But here's another factor that Team Poilièvre will never admit -- practically no one knows Pierre, who he really is and what he stands for -- he's basically a blank canvas in the minds of most Canadians, especially likely voters.

So, this is where things become politically dangerous: who gets to ultimately paint the canvas before and during an election, Pierre or the Trudeau Liberals? We need to get out front on that and solidly paint that picture ourselves. And far more importantly, we need to paint a picture that a Liberal room will find difficult or next to impossible to counter in Canadians' minds.

Do I see that solidly taking shape so far? Not really. Most of it will come from the totality of policy, and some from the company that the leader keeps. Pierre already knows that some of his policy will lead to the big payoff politically, while others need to be jettisoned yesterday as they already serve as a counterweight to his political momentum. Namely, truckers and vaccines. Opposition to vaccine policy and support for truckers are definitely not issues that will win us government. Far from it. Add to that the company he keeps at his rallies and events. Those attendees need to be seriously vetted before PP goes anywhere near an individual at an event. Know who the most prominent people are beforehand and know what makes them prominent, good or otherwise. In short, protect the leader from potential PR disasters that build anti-PP photographic momentum. And then comes putting aside one's own pride and ego and allowing the leader to publicly distance himself from the wrong people in a timely and definitive manner. That's crucial to putting out Liberal war room fires before they seriously get going.

Now, let's take a look at polling numbers: our party has been continuously ahead since the second week of August. I wasn't expecting that. Most polls have us in the lead between one and eight percent. And far more importantly, the three pollsters with the best consistent track record put us somewhat out front: Nanos by three points, Ipsos by five and Léger with a six points advance. That's momentum that's building.

Finally, I need to address conventional wisdom where supporters of a strong NDP jump ship to the Liberals in a campaign to STOP the Conservatives. It has happened repeatedly before. Again, much of this will be based on the look that PP will have built between now and the next vote. Right now, Pierre gets to shape the clay of his political face, or he can let the opposition parties do it for him. Scheer and O'Toole didn't get that. What about Poilièvre? 


Tuesday 4 October 2022

Legault Wins.

This result is almost unprecedented: it's a super majority for the CAQ and that's never healthy for democracy.

Expect the CAQ to be increasingly arrogant and anti-democratic. You know, my way or the highway.

But the results are not fair to QS and the PQ nor to the PCQ to a lesser extent.

However, the voters are always right even if sixty percent of voters find the end result disgusting.

Sunday 2 October 2022

Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon: The Best Campaign.

This guy is a natural campaigner who, unlike the others in this campaign, actually sweats authenticity. What you see is what you get, and Quebecers liked what they saw. The PQ progressed from a low of seven percent to a high of fifteen in the last Léger poll.

Yes, Plamondon will hold on to a few vulnerable seats, but will his party breakout elsewhere? We likely will see little boomlets in several regions of the province. So, this election is a win for the PQ.

QS and the Liberals are stuck with no final momentum to speak of. For their part, the PCQ has joined the big leagues and has the luxury of being likely supported by many voters who won't disclose their allegiance to pollsters. So, I expect polls to undercount PCQ support.

However, with three parties basically tied and the PLQ seemingly going nowhere, who will form the Official Opposition? The Liberals, perhaps and perhaps not.

And then there's the elephant in the room: the grand presumption by almost all political analysts that the CAQ will win another majority. I'm not so sure. I've got doubts creeping in, but that could be nothing more than wishful thinking.

Saturday 1 October 2022

Ukraine: NOW It Makes Sense.

A lot of people have been puzzled, wondering how Ukraine has managed to turn the tide and inflict such serious damage on Russian forces, not to mention regaining control of lands previously in Russian hands.

Well, knock me over with a feather -- surprise, surprise, it seems that American and British special forces are in Kviv to serve as military advisors to Zelenskyy -- no kidding, didn't see that one coming at all.

Couple that with logistics support and target spotting for the Ukrainians with satellite reconnaissance, and suddenly this thing becomes attention getting from a tactical point of view.

And then there's the other interesting new wrinkle: the apparent sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. It wasn't the Russians who did that, now was it. Biden smiles a bit too broadly these days, but I digress.

Sounds like an escalation and a likely widening of a regional war. Putin's partial mobilization is proof enough of that, and of his political desperation. Despots do strange things when cornered.

As Churchill said: This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”