Trump: The War He Started And The One He Can't Finish.

The plan was to have no plan, to improvise and shoot their shot along the way. Trump, on his best day, is clueless as Commander in Chief, and it doesn't get much better further down the White House and Administration food chain. This is a Keystone Kops war, one where its primary objectives have failed miserably: the Mullahs are still pontificating in Tehran, and uranium enrichment continues unabated in highly fortified caves that U.S. Bunker busters couldn't bust. Meanwhile, Geppetto sits in Jerusalem pulling the strings and calling the tune.

Say what you like about Netanyahu, but no one outdoes this guy when it comes to chutzpah. The cost is closing in on 40 billion, and yet Bibi remains, to put it mildly, unsatisfied with results. I can't blame him. Netanyahu must wish he were commander in chief, but I digress.

18 dead and 624 wounded so far. The Iran conundrum is not an easy one: it only gets solved by American boots on the ground, and Trump, taking his cue from most of the country, isn't prepared to do that. In Rumsfeld-speak, a long, hard slog. But the United States hasn't got the stomach for it, much to the relief of the IRGC. 

Which means a seemingly endless war of tit for tat against both American forces abroad and those of our allies in the region. Trump can't even keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Vessel traffic only reinforces that narrative. So, there's no obvious out, but one thing is decidedly clear: for the Iranians to hold the line so voraciously on enrichment can only mean that at least a bomb is already a reality. No wonder Trump treads so carefully. Netanyahu must be seething.   

UK: Some Will Be Watching Andy. Others, Nigel. I'll Be Following Kemi.

The Burnham Bounce is official, but it's not even a jump. So Labour better not draw too much from it. It's sort of like a conditional peck on the cheek rather than a vigorous liplock. In America, they might talk of road-testing a prime minister because, in essence, we're speaking of exactly that. Burnham has already proven that he's no Starmer and the party and its supporters must be exceedingly grateful for that. But 2029 is a long way off, especially if Andy keeps his word until his next encounter with voters. 

Nigel seems to be coming off as cheap, amateurish theatre, a sort of circular firing squad where the leader keeps firing mostly against his own self-interest. Party support has stalled or slumped, depending on your perspective. So, from Labour's point of view, all seems good, at least for now.

One wonders if voters are prepared to give Kemi a second look? Are Reform's misfortunes an opportunity or merely a reflection of temporary woes? Personally, were I British, I would be Kemi-inclined, especially if Burnham somehow screwed it all up with devastating tax hikes. Call it an opening, if you will. Thatcheresque, she is to some degree, but only time will tell.

In the interim, let's see if these numbers are consequential or indicative of a pending trend:

Kentucky: Will Beshear Call A Special Election?

In short, what's the point given that Democrats are unlikely, to put it charitably, to win that seat. This may be all about McConnell this and McConnell that, but whether alive or dead, the Democrat in a special election is likely to come out of it as just another stiff. 

Abacus Data.

Carney Retains a Clear Personal Advantage

Mark Carney continues to be viewed more positively than

either of the other major federal party leaders.

Forty-nine percent of Canadians have a positive impression 

of Carney, while 32% have a negative impression. His net

impression is positive 17.

Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 37% and negatively by

43%, producing a net impression of negative 6.

Abacus Data.

LPC: 44%

CPC: 38%

NDP: 9%

BQ: 6%

GPC: 3%

Angus Reid: Is A Deal Even Possible?

For the record, I expect no deal. Free trade with the United States is over. CUSMA is dead within a year, or even less if Trump cancels it with six months' notice and a bilateral with Canada is not in the cards. Trump doesn't do win-win.

Angus Reid:

43%

are confident Carney can deliver a good deal, down from 51% in April

75%

don’t trust Trump to stick to the terms of any deal reached

Angus Reid: CUSMA - USMCA.

As most Canadians rebuke Trump tariff threat and call for retaliation, confidence in PM to get a good deal declines

Sorry, Jasmin.

I'm even harder-line than Ford. I not only want tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar, but also more counter-tariffs than American tariffs. This is economic war, and that's all Trump understands. It's not a war we can win, but it's a war we must fight. Our sovereignty demands nothing less.