Why Double Non-Confidence In Pierre's Leadership Is Already On The Table.

In short, Spark Advocacy. This is a large poll of four thousand potential voters. It shows the Liberals with a whopping sixteen-point lead: 46 percent, CPC: 30 percent, the NDP: 11 percent, with the BQ trailing at 5 percent. This is a huge vote of non-confidence in the CPC leader and his front bench. Put another way, likely voters are now finally sealing the deal on Pierre's leadership. This poll couldn't come at a worse time for him, given the fact that the Liberals could win at least two of the byelections being held on April 13th.

Bruce Anderson sums things up regarding the poll here:

Liberals ahead by 16; Approval of Carney government hits 68%

If the Liberals take two of the three byelections, they will have a bare majority, with the speaker potentially losing his job in favour of an opposition member to further cushion that majority. This scenario actually increases the chances of a fall election: Carney will want a formal mandate from voters with an appropriate translation in seats. Imagine the size of the majority that the Liberals could get in a fall election. Think Mulroney territory. 

And if all of that wasn't enough to undermine the level of credibility that Pierre still has in caucus, there are rumblings that several more CPC MPs are going to jump ship post April 13th, using a different strategy: they will show their disapproval of Poilièvre's contuinued leadership by sitting as Independents, thereby sending a strong message to caucus that now is the time to dustoff the Reform Act and vacate the leadership, before Carney can move to an election, which could be held in November, right after the Quebec election. So, interesting times ahead with yours truly remaining skeptical that CPC MPs will really have the guts to put the Reform Act in play. I'll believe it when I see it, but the main point here is that Pierre's leadership becomes untenable right after those byelections. He should go then, but he won't. As for what happens after that, the decision largely rests with the CPC caucus. Leaders are supposed to put party first, but in the cold reality of political self-interest, they usually don't. Expect Pierre to be no different. Remember that, in the Quebec provincial context, Rodriguez's first instinct was to hold on. Unfortunately for him, his caucus had other ideas, and so he resigned in the end. In essence, that was the only realistic and honourable option open to him. 

Is Disbarment In Her Future?

You bet it is! I'm going to enjoy this.

Les sondages devraient faire le bonheur de Milliard et du PLQ.

Si j’étais stratège au Parti québécois, je commencerais à paniquer, et j’aurais de nombreuses bonnes raisons de le faire : tout d’abord, j’ai un chef qui refuse de revenir sur la position du parti quant à la tenue d’un référendum au cours du premier mandat d’un gouvernement du PQ. Cela va probablement faire chuter le soutien au PQ parmi les francophones. Personne dans la rue ne veut subir une campagne référendaire si le PQ arrive au pouvoir. Deuxièmement, le PQ a un problème plus subtil, à savoir la personnalité et les positions de son chef. Une raison de plus pour les non-partisans inconditionnels de se tourner vers d’autres horizons.

Cela nous amène au PLQ : un parti qui se forge discrètement une image compétitive, sans prendre position sur les enjeux majeurs du Québec ni sur les questions secondaires. En théorie, si Milliard s’exprime très peu, les chances du parti de remonter dans les sondages seront étrangement accélérées.

En substance, toute avance que les libéraux pourraient gagner dans les prochains sondages, si elle se concrétise, se construira petit à petit. Le dernier sondage Léger place le PQ et le PLQ au coude à coude à trente-trois pour cent. Parmi les électeurs francophones, les libéraux ont gagné quatre points et s’établissent désormais à vingt-trois pour cent.

Je suivrai de près les prochains sondages. Mon point d’interrogation reflète le pourcentage de francophones qui soutiennent le PLQ : j’ai hâte de voir les sondages de cet été. Je pense qu’ils seront décisifs pour déterminer l’écart entre le Parti québécois et le Parti libéral du Québec. À suivre !

习近平正在为生存而战，他的偏执已达到顶峰。

必须承认习近平的非凡特质：他是一个不择手段的斗士，为了保住自己在中国共产党内的地位，他将不惜一切代价。对习近平而言，目的再次证明了手段的正当性。一旦他察觉到哪怕一丝不忠或公开倒戈的迹象，他就会利用反腐运动，将对手和盟友一并边缘化或清除。

与此同时，中国的谣言工厂正热议着一种猜测：习近平的一些最亲信的助手和密友要么已经倒戈，要么正处于倒戈的边缘。可以理解，这让习近平感到不安——这还是轻描淡写的说法。当然，我们不应过分轻信谣言。然而，如果那些与军工复合体有关联的人突然在神秘情况下死亡或失踪，也不会令人感到意外。据说，习近平对出售给伊朗的武器系统的表现感到非常愤怒。这彻底打乱了今年入侵台湾的宏伟计划。在这起丑闻之后，习近平深知大陆在这样的战争中胜算并不大。

在政治领域，据称近期接连爆出的腐败丑闻与习近平身边的亲信有关。地方官员似乎被当作替罪羊。这些免职与近期在解放军、国家安全或警察部队内部发生的案例形成了鲜明对比。这些倒台者既有保守派，也有改革派。这无异于给习近平一记响亮的耳光。再加上温家宝的突然公开露面，足以说明当前权力斗争的严重程度。即便处于攻势，习近平也不可避免地被迫转入守势。以下比喻最能说明这一局面：试想习近平及其盟友是“萨德”、“箭”式、“大卫投石索”、“爱国者”或“铁穹”等导弹防御系统的化身。他们必须完美无缺，而“太子党”、改革派和保守派只需一次决定性的胜利。难怪有人说，习近平的神经如今已绷紧到了崩溃的边缘。

Xi Jinping is fighting for his survival, and his paranoia has reached its peak.

One must acknowledge Xi Jinping’s exceptional qualities: he is a fighter who will stop at nothing, and he will spare no expense to retain his position within the Chinese Communist Party. For Xi Jinping, the end once again justifies the means. The moment he detects even the slightest hint of disloyalty or open defection, he will use the anti-corruption campaign to marginalize or eliminate both opponents and allies alike.

Meanwhile, China’s rumour mill is abuzz with speculation that some of Xi Jinping’s most trusted aides and confidants have either already defected or are on the verge of doing so. Understandably, this unsettles Xi Jinping—and that is putting it mildly. Of course, one must not place too much credence in rumours. However, it would come as no surprise if individuals with links to the military-industrial complex were to suddenly die or disappear under mysterious circumstances. It is said that Xi Jinping is furious over the performance of the weapons systems sold to Iran. This has completely derailed the grand plan to invade Taiwan this year. In the wake of this scandal, Xi Jinping is acutely aware that the mainland is not guaranteed victory in such a war.

In the political arena, the recent cascade of corruption scandals is reportedly linked to confidants close to Xi Jinping. Local officials appear to have been made scapegoats. These dismissals present a stark contrast to recent cases within the People’s Liberation Army, state security or police forces. Those downfalls bear the hallmarks of both conservatives and reformists. They constitute a direct slap in the face for Xi Jinping. Coupled with Wen Jiabao’s sudden public appearance, this is sufficient to illustrate the full extent of the current power struggle. Even whilst on the offensive, Xi Jinping has inevitably been forced onto the defensive. The following analogy best illustrates the situation: imagine Xi Jinping and his allies as the embodiment of missile defence systems such as THAAD, Arrow, David’s Sling, Patriot or Iron Dome. They must perform flawlessly, whilst the ‘Princelings’, reformists and conservatives need only one decisive victory. No wonder it is said that Xi Jinping’s nerves are now stretched to the breaking point.

Maïté Blanchette Vézina rejoint le PCQ.

Eh bien, oui et non. L'ancienne ministre de la CAQ, députée de la circonscription de Rimouski, sera la candidate conservatrice dans La Peltrie. C'est un faux pas. La Peltrie recouvre une partie des circonscriptions fédérales de Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier et de Louis-Hébert, la dernière comptant une population plus élevée. Traduction : Blanchette a de très bonnes chances de perdre dans La Peltrie si Milliard et le PLQ font un retour en force. D’un autre côté, il faut noter qu’à l’heure actuelle, le PCQ est en tête dans La Peltrie, selon les sondages. Il aurait été plus judicieux de la présenter dans la circonscription de Chauveau ou de Portneuf. 

Dans la région de la Capitale-Nationale, ce n’est pas un hasard si les dix circonscriptions où le PCQ a obtenu ses résultats les plus impressionnants lors des dernières élections sont représentées par des députés du PCC au niveau fédéral, à l’exception d’une partie de Louis-Hébert et d’une section de Beauport-Limoilou.

D’après les sondages, on évoque la possibilité de remporter entre cinq et quinze sièges dans cette région et ailleurs. Cependant, tout dépendra du résultat de la CAQ. À moins d’un désastre pour le parti au pouvoir, le PCQ risque de ne réaliser que des gains minimaux à l’Assemblée nationale. Pour obtenir le statut de parti, un parti doit remporter douze sièges ou obtenir vingt pour cent des voix lors des élections. Le PCQ recueille entre quatorze et dix-huit pour cent des intentions de vote dans la plupart des sondages. Cela confirme que Duhaime a encore du travail à faire pour faire entrer le parti à l’Assemblée nationale avec le statut de parti. Il devra nécessairement mettre le paquet lors de la prochaine campagne électorale. 

Sur une note personnelle, en l’absence d’une forte vague de soutien pour le PCQ dans la région métropolitaine de Québec, je pense que Blanchette Vézina ne sera pas élue dans la circonscription de La Peltrie. La vraie question est : qui l’emportera, le PLQ ou même le PQ ?

NDP: The Liberals Are Writing Off Avi Lewis.

You know what I think about conventional wisdom. Most of the time, it's at least partially wrong or total bullshit. The Liberals, masters of hubris, have already discounted the NDP. They'll continue the seduction campaign aimed at the party's MPs. The argument goes like this, to no one's surprise: the newly elected Avi Lewis is far too left to lead the NDP back to party status.

I don't share that view. A fresh face can do wonders in politics, provided that the average Joe and Jane do not consider the party's positions as being way out there or plain whacko. So, do I expect Lewis to mostly hold the line and not go full Leap Manifesto? Yes, I do.

Lewis knows that for the NDP to become relevant again, not to mention regain party status, pragmatism has to be at least the order of the day over the short to medium term. So far, Carney has been more sizzle than steak, which creates an opening for the NDP. No question that if Carney gets a renewed trade deal with the United States, it will be a tough go for the NDP to regain party status. However, I don't see many new or improved paper-based trade agreements. So, there's an opportunity there. Look to Lewis to go against his basic instincts and make the most of it. After all, the party's political survival likely depends on that, especially given that thirty percent of eligible voters did not cast a ballot in this leadership race.