Carney reaffirms Canadian oil and diesel exports to the US in Sunday call with Trump.

Carney folds once again. Tick, tock, tick, tock. That sound you hear is POS Trump roaring with laughter. And the American concessions are? A prized goose egg...they must be really grateful.

Trump Tariffs: What Carney And Poilièvre Won't Tell You.

In short, off-book unfunded liabilities in American dollars equal 120 trillion.  Total aggregate financial obligation of 137 trillion. Total recorded liabilities of 48 trillion. National debt of over 40 trillion. Trump's OBBBA reduced revenue by 5 trillion. A revenue shortfall that is more than 25 times the federal government's annual tax collection. 

So...a world without American tariffs against Canada and other countries is not possible in the future. Whether Trump is president or someone else is, American tariffs against Canada in some form are here to stay.

Canada: Speaking Of Our Dud...

Exactly how many MPs will resign from caucus between now and next spring? In this party, confidence in the leader is decided by a set of feet heading quickly out the door.

Oh, look. Liaison just came out:

I know, let's switch to Équipe Pierre Poilièvre - Pierre Poilièvre Team!!!

BC: Polling Canada.

It's all over the place.

British Columbia provincial polling | Polling Canada

Democratic Tidal Wave In November?

Colour me skeptical, even with polls pegging Trump as the most unpopular modern-day president at 32%, since W's ill-fated 19% during the 2008 financial crisis. Republicans generally, and MAGA particularly, are a curious breed prone to dismiss reality in favour of blind loyalty to the party and the president. Put another way, if you aren't lower-to-middle-class and hurting economically, you're still likely voting for the Republicans. And that isn't an insignificant block of voters.

Trump keeps telling people to act as if his name is on the ballot, and that stirs nothing but glee from Democrats. Sure, in our neck of the woods we're heading for political nirvana, but Trump's call will also rally the comfortable and the well-off. Not just the trillionaire-billionaire-millionaire class.

Then comes the down-ballot: it looks like the Democrats have already locked up the House with projections that they'll win at least 20 seats.  The party must win 4 seats to hold a Senate majority, and that looks doable. The states to watch are Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Maine and Alaska. Either the turnout of the disaffected or the contented will decide these races.

When it comes to state legislative seats, party momentum as a change agent is likely to lose some of its fizz. In the end, down-ballot, a pretty good night for Democrats, but likely not an earth-shattering win. Trump, MAGA and Republicans aren't close to being dead just yet.          

From on high, Donald Trump looks to be in league with James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson and Richard Nixon, but voting-day appearances could be deceiving or disappointing after the polls close.                     

Référendum en Alberta : ne comptez pas sur le taux de participation pour déterminer si le « oui » l’emportera.

Le jour du scrutin, les Albertains auront l’occasion de comparer et de mettre en contraste deux écoles de pensée. La première soutient que les électeurs considèrent l’urne comme un vecteur de changement et que, par conséquent, un taux de participation élevé est synonyme de votes en faveur de la réforme ou du renouveau. À l’inverse, l’argument référendaire suggère que le fait de voter et une forte participation ont tendance à favoriser le statu quo plutôt qu’un changement majeur, voire radical. En substance, la participation peut être un facteur important, bien qu’elle soit peu susceptible de modifier le résultat dans le cadre d’un référendum où le nombre de bulletins de vote est soit moyen, soit élevé.

En Alberta, plus de 80 % des personnes interrogées déclarent avoir l’intention de voter lors du référendum de la semaine prochaine. On s’attend à ce que le taux de participation se situe entre 80 et 85 %; si ces prévisions s’avèrent exactes, la plupart des Albertains admissibles prévoient de faire entendre leur voix aux urnes. Comparons cela aux taux de participation observés lors des deux dernières élections provinciales : 61 % en 2023 et 68 % en 2019.

J’ai fait valoir que ce premier référendum ne devait pas être considéré comme n’entraînant ni conséquences ni risques. Il s’agit d’un vote destiné à envoyer un message à Ottawa, et je pense que ce point de vue favorise les forces du « oui ». Je pense également que le soutien au camp du « oui » est sous-estimé, car certains Albertains ne voudront pas admettre aux sondeurs qu’ils sont favorables à la sécession. J’irais même jusqu’à dire que si tous les éléments s’alignent, le « oui » pourrait remporter une victoire surprise. Bref, un véritable séisme politique.

Et puis, il y a cette question qui fâche : la déclaration de Smith selon laquelle, si le camp du « maintien » l’emporte, les séparatistes peuvent oublier l’idée d’un deuxième référendum. On parle là d’une arme à double tranchant. Ses commentaires visaient à clarifier les choses, mais n’auraient peut-être pas dû être formulés avant le dépouillement des votes. En s’exprimant maintenant, Smith a probablement renforcé la détermination des séparatistes et de leurs alliés. Cela signifie sans aucun doute que, dans une certaine mesure au moins, ses commentaires ont aidé les forces du « oui ».

Et comme si Smith n’avait pas déjà assez de problèmes, plus de 50 % du caucus de l’UCP sont en faveur du « Leave », certains réclamant déjà sa destitution comme cheffe du parti. Aïe! Un retour en arrière vers l’époque de Kenney. Cela pourrait signifier que Smith remporte son référendum, mais qu’elle perd finalement son poste de cheffe de parti et de première ministre. À l’approche du scrutin, les choses ne s’annoncent pas bien pour Smith. Elle pourrait bien finir grande perdante juste après le référendum.

Alberta referendum: don't rely on turnout to determine whether the ‘Yes’ vote will win.

Albertans will have the opportunity to compare and contrast two schools of thought on voting day. The first argues that voters see the ballot box as a change agent and that, consequently, high turnout means ballots cast for reform or renewal. Conversely, the referendum argument suggests that voting and a high turnout tend to favour the status quo rather than major, or even radical, change. In essence, turnout can be a major factor, though it is unlikely to change the outcome in an average-to-high-turnout referendum.

In Alberta, more than 80 percent of those surveyed say they intend to vote in next week’s referendum. Turnout is expected to be between 80 and 85 percent; if these forecasts prove accurate, most eligible Albertans plan on making their voices heard at the ballot box. Let us compare this with the turnout rates seen in the last two provincial elections: 61 percent in 2023 and 68 percent in 2019.

I've argued that this first referendum should be seen as carrying neither consequences nor risks. It is a vote intended to send a message to Ottawa, and I think this view favours the ‘Yes’ camp. I also think that support for the ‘Yes’ side is being underestimated, as some Albertans will not want to admit to pollsters that they favour secession. I would even go so far as to say that if all the pieces fall into place, the ‘Yes’ vote could pull off a surprise win. In short, a veritable political earthquake.

And then there's the real elephant in the room: Smith’s statement that if the ‘Remain’ camp wins, the separatists can forget a second referendum. Talk about a double-edged sword. Her comments were meant to clarify matters, but perhaps should not have come until the vote was counted. By speaking out now, Smith has probably strengthened the resolve of the separatists and their allies. This undoubtedly means that, at least to some extent, her comments have helped the ‘Yes’ side.

And as if Smith didn’t have enough problems already, over 50 percent of the UCP caucus favour ‘Leave’, with some already calling for her removal as party leader. Ouch! A flashback to the Kenney days. It could mean that Smith wins her referendum, but ultimately loses her position as party leader and premier. As the vote approaches, things aren't looking good for Smith. She could end up as the big loser right after the referendum.