The sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference are currently underway.

As with all state affairs in China, the rumours circulating throughout Beijing and indeed the entire nation could set a world record – some true, others false, but most impossible to verify. In the realm of political intrigue, none can rival the Communist Party, whose masterful strategizing leaves the CIA trailing in its wake. They remain an enigma within another enigma, a mystery shrouded in riddles.

Attempting to discern precisely who is in favour and who has fallen from grace is futile. Despite Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli having been purged by Xi Jinping, the Two Sessions lists still include them as delegates. This indicates the military is awaiting the final verdict on their fate, and that waiting period is drawing to a close. Their fate remains unknown, yet whatever outcome unfolds portends ill for Xi Jinping. Had they been executed, why delay announcing their deaths? Xi likely fears that the military might stage a coup to overthrow him if the generals perished at the hands of his own security forces or police.

Xi Jinping, still in power, appears precariously vulnerable: his decision to sit alongside Party delegates at the opening ceremony of the Two Sessions signals his political fragility and uncertain future. Compounding this, Xi has ceased leaving Beijing, reportedly holed up in a reinforced bunker, exposing his palpable anxiety.

The reformist faction, led by Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Liu Yuan, appears to have lost its nerve. They have forgotten the iron law that hesitation leads to demise, a lapse that could prove fatal. The failure of both reformists and the princelings to strike decisively constitutes a grave error. Prioritizing the Party's survival above all else is tantamount to inviting Xi Jinping to execute another flanking manoeuvre. This time, opposing Xi may cost them their lives. The conservatives share equal blame—rumours suggest Zeng Qinghong is privately mediating the rift between Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping, effectively offering Xi a lifeline. Can Xi outmanoeuvre his opponents and consolidate power? Time will tell, but the brutal reality is that time is the enemy of the reformists. Xi will fight for survival at any cost—the stakes for him and his family are simply too high.

And what of Li Qiang? Has he begun distancing himself from Xi Jinping? If so, this would be a perilous game indeed. He would do well to remember the fate that befell Li Keqiang while swimming.

全国人民代表大会和中国人民政治协商会议的会议正在举行。

如同中国所有国事，流传于北京乃至全国的传闻足以创下世界纪录——有虚有实，但多数难以求证。在政治阴谋领域，无人能出共产党之右，其运筹帷幄之高明令中情局望尘莫及。他们始终是谜中之谜，谜团裹挟着谜题。

试图准确辨别谁得宠谁失势实属徒劳。尽管张友夏和刘振立已被习近平清洗，但两会名单仍将他们列为代表。这表明军方正等待对其命运的最终裁决，而等待期已近尾声。无人知晓他们生死，但无论结果如何，都预示着习近平将遭遇厄运。若二人已遭处决，为何迟迟不公布死讯？习近平恐怕担忧，若将领死于其安保部队或警察之手，军队可能发动政变推翻他。

仍掌权的习近平看似岌岌可危：他选择在两会开幕式上与党代表同席而坐，昭示其政治脆弱性与未来的不确定性。雪上加霜的是，习近平不再离开北京，据称蜷缩在加固的掩体中，暴露了其显而易见的焦虑。

以胡锦涛、温家宝和刘源为首的改革派似乎丧失了胆识。他们忘记了犹豫者必亡的铁律，这一疏忽可能致命。改革派和太子党未能果断出击，构成重大失误。将党的生存置于一切之上的做法，无异于邀请习近平再次实施侧翼包抄。这次，反对习近平可能要付出生命的代价。保守派同样难辞其咎——传闻称曾庆红正在私下调解胡锦涛与习近平之间的矛盾，实际上为习近平提供了救命稻草。习近平能否智胜对手并巩固权力？时间自会给出答案，但残酷现实是：时间对改革派而言是敌人。习近平将不惜一切代价求生——对他及其家族而言，赌注实在太高。

李强又如何？他是否已开始与习近平保持距离？若真如此，这将是场危险的游戏。他最好记住李克强游泳时遭遇的命运。

Carney Shows His True Colours And Likely Voters Are Busting Down Doors To Support That Cynicism.

What a pathetic joke. Carney has once again shown his real political inclination: he, like every other living and breathing federal Liberal, is only about power, getting and holding on to it by using every trick in the book. Hence, the byelections in University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne will take place on April 13.

The party of no principles has reached a new low by recruiting a former Ontario NDP deputy leader, Doly Begum, as their candidate in Scarborough Southwest. Some people are calling this turn of events shocking. Not me. I know exactly who the federal Liberals are: willing to send Mom and Dad down the river just to stay in power. Naked political ambition is all they think about. Typically Liberal.

So here are the Liberal plans: they will put unprecedented resources into Terrebonne, knowing that if they take that riding, they will have secured a majority, provided that the next speaker is not a Liberal. Terrebonne will be a referendum on Carney and Blanchet. Quebecers will decide whether the Liberals get a majority. The party that turns out its vote best will win. My money is on the Bloc. In addition, if Outhouse is worth his salt, he'll convince Poilièvre not to run a candidate in the riding, thereby increasing the chances that the Liberals won't win. You know what they say: the enemy of my enemy is at minimum a temporary ally. 

If the LPC lose Terrebonne, they will pick up the pace to try and get more Conservative floorcrossers. And this time, they will go after former CPC cabinet ministers. In short, they will do an Emerson, offer it to anyone who agrees to sit as a Liberal. 

Finally, if neither of these options bears fruit, they will create the circumstances that lead to a fall election. It could be a poison pill or simply a call on Canadians to give the Liberals a majority. 

A three-pronged strategy to get that majority. Carney won't give up until he controls the Commons. And so far, few voters are prepared to storm Parliament Hill to prevent it. 

PP Has To Contend With Bipolar Political Disorder.

Poor Pierre, it can't be easy dealing with bipolar politics. It all started with the euphoria that followed Calgary, once it became clear that the membership was united. Then came the divisions within the caucus and the recent departures that Conservatives consider a betrayal. That's true, but each departure had a snowball effect and showed everyone that the leader's relationship with the caucus was not always harmonious. The OLO often had its thumb on the scale, which irritated dissident MPs, some of whom have now left and others who are still considering their political future. 

Let's dare to look at the polls: yours truly has poopooed the prevailing political wisdom that the last election and the next one will be mainly, if not exclusively, about Trump. In a word, that's bullshit. Canadian electoral trends are almost always linked to likability and strength of character. That's how recent giants like PET, BM, JC and SH won elections. You either liked them or you didn't, but you had confidence in their ability before checking the box.

That's where Pierre fails: many voters don't like him or his anti-woke agenda. They see it as disrupting the mosaic of national politics. You know, the Canadian way of going along to get along. Is this a fair assessment of PP? Perhaps not, but ultimately, politics is about perception, not reality. The Pierre I know and see has mellowed: he is much more confident since getting married and becoming a father, and the sacred sacrament has done wonders for him: he smiles easily now and, with age, no longer takes himself as seriously as he did when he was pegged as Pierre the bomb thrower. Family life has done him good. He is also much less hostile and antagonistic towards the mainstream media, those feared and biased enemies of most conservatives. So... is this perception entirely accurate? The obvious answer is no. But that's how politics works. In short, Pierre is waiting for Carney to slip up, screw up or blow up. And yes, that could still happen, but ultimately, you can't count on that to win an election. Time isn't yet up for the leader, but it is running out fast in the hourglass. Pierre needs to rethink his strategy if he wants to win. He will have to dig deep within himself to find qualities and fresh inspiration leading to a winning formula. Outhouse can't win the next campaign for him. Only he can do that. Over the medium term, we'll see if he can make the most of the situation.

CPC: very slim chances of forming the next government, according to the Léger poll.

Carney's Liberals climb to 49% and lead by 14 points - Leger

PCC : très faibles chances de former le prochain gouvernement, selon le sondage Léger.

 Politique fédérale : écart de 14 points entre le PLC et le PCC - Léger

Léger : Un seul sondage ne signifie pas le début d'un bouleversement.

Le dernier sondage Léger montre que l'avance du PQ n'est plus que d'un point : trente et un pour cent, le PLQ est à un point derrière, le PCQ à quinze pour cent, la CAQ à treize pour cent et QS à neuf pour cent.

Ce qui m'intéresse, c'est la répartition parmi les francophones à travers le Québec, et à cet égard, l'écart est désormais de vingt points entre le PQ et les libéraux, avec trente-neuf pour cent pour le Parti québécois. Cependant, le PLQ mène de neuf points avec trente-neuf pour cent des voix parmi la population âgée de 55 ans et plus. 

En résumé, plus le PQ mobilise son électorat dans les différentes régions du Québec, plus il a de chances de remporter les élections. À ce stade, le PLQ ne peut pas faire la même observation, étant donné que le parti est surreprésenté dans la région métropolitaine de Montréal.

Comme son prédécesseur, Milliard devra faire campagne sur le terrain et démontrer ses profondes convictions. Les électeurs auront à évaluer la stature du chef et son programme. Ils rechercheront un soutien inconditionnel au Québec et une stratégie qui permettra le renouveau et le développement séquentiel de la nation. Ils rechercheront leur champion, ce qui signifie que la confiance sera probablement accordée à un homme plutôt qu'à un parti. Les récentes performances de PSPP à cet égard ont peut-être ouvert la voie à Milliard. Il devra jouer habilement ses cartes pour gagner la confiance des francophones. Ce n'est pas impossible, mais pour l'instant, la tâche semble presque titanesque.