Sunday, 4 December 2022
Saturday, 19 November 2022
Sunday, 13 November 2022
Sunday, 6 November 2022
In a nutshell, that's the question of the hour. Democrats do well to bring out the heavy guns, Biden, Obama and the Clintons in an attempt to stop the hemorrhaging. Because hemorrhaging is exactly what it is. In a good economy, incumbent presidents tend to lose on average between twenty and thirty House seats and usually up to two to four in the Senate.
But this is a disastrous economy and inflation is rampant: so it doesn't take a genius to see big Republican gains ahead. Could Republicans win fifty House seats? Maybe. Could they also win up to five Senate seats? Maybe. That's how I read it. Frankly, I hope I'm wrong.
But in the end, Biden did this to himself when he renominated Powell. What America needed was a stop to QE much earlier than it happened and rises in interest rates much sooner than they actually happened. When Biden went with Powell, he cut his own throat and that of fellow Democrats across the country.
So, the chips will fall where they may. And Biden will be a lame duck the day after. Some will say no, no, Reagan, Clinton and Obama came back and won two years later. Sure. But none of them had the so-called Biden Inflation. Joe should cut his losses after the midterms and not run again. But don't dare whisper that in Democratic circles, even if that's reality because reality hurts.
Saturday, 29 October 2022
No question about that. Republicans will win big in the midterms up and down the ballot, largely due to independents, who've abandoned the Democrats. This thing has seesawed back and forth, but Republican momentum is now clear and perhaps unshakable: Walker and Oz are proof enough of that.
The generic congressional polls show that the Republican tide may eventually turn into a landslide, but more than likely not a rout for Democrats.
And then there's the terrible attack on Paul Pelosi. People will be appalled, disgusted, but will it ultimately move enough votes to mitigate or reverse the Republican trend? Who knows. It's the only thing not already baked into the cake.
|Poll||Date||Sample||Republicans (R)||Democrats (D)||Spread|
|RCP Average||10/12 - 10/27||--||48.0||45.1||Republicans +2.9|
|Data for Progress (D)**||10/26 - 10/27||1217 LV||49||45||Republicans +4|
|Trafalgar Group (R)||10/25 - 10/27||1089 LV||48||42||Republicans +6|
|Rasmussen Reports||10/23 - 10/27||2500 LV||49||42||Republicans +7|
|InsiderAdvantage||10/25 - 10/25||750 LV||48||44||Republicans +4|
Sunday, 23 October 2022
What an election is ahead: neither Biden nor Trump are on the ballot, but both have negatives above 50%. That will affect results in the midterms.
With roughly two weeks to go, I won't be making any predictions just yet, but I want you to enjoy the last leg of the race.
Here are the two places to go to. Don't miss them.
Saturday, 22 October 2022
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party has come to a close and in public fashion, Xi has put the final touches on the purge -- Hu was unceremoniously escorted out of the meeting allegedly for health reasons -- but seemingly showing resistance to leave, at least at first.
It was a spectacular and dramatic display that sent exactly the right message: Xi's takeover of the party is now complete. Jiang and Zhu were nowhere to be found at the Congress, and Hu's protégée, Li, lost his position as number two on the Standing Committee. That means he'll be replaced as Premier soon enough.
But as they say, live pictures don't lie: just check out the guy who was sitting on Hu's left: the guy is sweating throughout and that says it all. He even takes out a handkerchief to wipe his face. End of story. That's pretty much it.
Of course, all of this has wider implications for world peace: first, Putin and his adventurism in Ukraine and now Xi unchallenged, who could strike at Taiwan at any time without being checked internally. Call it the second leg of the WW III stool. All we need now is the last leg, and where will that come from? Iran, North Korea, or somewhere else? Not good.