Is It Really About Starmer?

Conventional wisdom would suggest it's all about Mandelson and his purported links to Epstein. People decry the vetting process and Starmer's acceptance of Mandelson's assurances. But is that what this is really about, or is this a simple case of bait-and-switch? It's no secret to any sentient Briton that Labour is drowning in the polls, with Reform UK seemingly headed for victory in the next election. Might I suggest that the Canadian experience could prove instructive: our Conservative Party enjoyed a thirty-point lead in the polls for the better part of two years and then failed to seal the deal in last spring's federal election.

It is not unreasonable to point out that Labour undoubtedly took some note of how things went in Canada. If that is indeed the case, all the manoeuvrings coupled with increasing calls for Starmer to resign might be based on political considerations, namely, saving Labour's ass in the next election. Some may believe that a change of leader could revive Labour's sagging fortunes. Those with that view might also argue that Farage can be well tolerated in small doses, but not if he becomes prime minister. 

So, if I'm on track, this move against Starmer is primarily about keeping power and one-fourth based on Mandelson. Others will say that the best Labour could do is hold off the inevitable with a change of leader: the cases of Thatcher-Major and Blair-Brown being most instructive. In any event, Starmer would do well to go, putting country and party ahead of his personal ambitions. The name of the game going forward must be to stop Farage, bearing in mind that a change of leader, even under Jesus Christ, would not necessarily do the trick. In the end, it may be Farage after all, no matter what Labour does. 

中国：犹豫不决者...

在某些情况下，犹豫不决者注定失败。党内元老和中央军委两位副主席曾以为习近平会遵循既定规范，尊重共产党的正统意识形态和内部机制。然而他却另辟蹊径。他们完全被习近平压制，但这不过是又一次“赢了战斗却可能输掉整个战争”的例证。习近平正日复一日地体会着这个道理。他原计划至少执政至明年，但如今这个目标似乎越来越难以实现。

真正的权力掌握在尚未公开行动的军队手中。他们通过沉默和精心策划的不作为来抵抗习近平。有传言称军队也在保护党内元老——这些元老对下一步行动仍意见分歧。

在这场猫鼠游戏中，双方都在打自己的牌：元老们必须团结起来，否则将面临再次被碾压的风险；习近平则必须巩固已被严重侵蚀的权力。一方靠行动取胜，另一方靠等待制胜。但军队仍是这场权力斗争的决定性力量。若习近平对武装部队采取行动，警察和国家安全机构将难以匹敌统一指挥的军队。习近平需要更多时间和运气。他深知若军警在中国本土爆发战争，自己恐难取胜——甚至可能丧命。

从军方视角看，习近平要么通过与元老及武装力量妥协体面下台，要么在彻底耻辱中消失。

最终，武装力量将决定北京下届政权的存亡。习近平可能已过度扩张势力，除核心圈外政治盟友寥寥——这很可能成为其最终覆灭的根源。

China: The Hesitant...

Under certain circumstances, the hesitant are doomed to failure. Party elders and two vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission had assumed Xi Jinping would adhere to established norms, respecting the Communist Party's orthodox ideology and internal mechanisms. Yet he charted a different course. They were entirely subdued by Xi Jinping, but this merely serves as yet another illustration of ‘winning the battle but potentially losing the war’. Xi Jinping is learning this lesson day by day. He had planned to remain in power until at least next year, but that goal now appears increasingly elusive.

Real power lies with the army, which has yet to act openly. They resist Xi through silence and carefully orchestrated inaction. Rumours suggest the military is also protecting the party elders—who remain divided over their next move.

In this cat-and-mouse game, both sides are playing their cards: the elders must unite or risk being crushed again; Xi must consolidate his severely eroded authority. One side wins through action, the other through waiting. Yet the army remains the decisive force in this power struggle. Should Xi move against the armed forces, police and state security agencies would struggle to match a unified military command. Xi needs more time and luck. He knows full well that should war break out between army and police forces on Chinese soil, victory would be elusive—and his life could be at stake.

From the military's perspective, Xi faces either a dignified exit through compromise with the elders and armed forces or a complete and utterly disgraceful disappearance.

Ultimately, the army will determine the survival of Beijing's next regime. Xi may have overplayed his hand, leaving him with few political allies beyond his inner circle—a circumstance that could well prove the root cause of his eventual downfall.

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我为何认为张友夏和刘振立依然在世。

在我看来，张友夏和刘振立至今仍能活着，原因有二：习近平深知，若处决他们，自己终将面临同样的命运。他清醒地意识到，自己永远无法重新掌控军队。最后，倘若他们真被处决，反习派早就会泄露消息，从而使军队陷入动荡不安的状态，煽动官兵倒戈反习。

Why I Think Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli Are Still Alive.

Two reasons: Xi Jinping realizes that if it's their necks, it ultimately will be his as well. He knows that he'll never regain full control over the PLA. And finally, if they were dead, the anti-Xi factions would have leaked it by now to turn PLA commanders and soldiers against Xi.

Lorsque vous êtes à la tête d'un parti politique...

Être à la tête d'un parti politique implique nécessairement d'assumer la responsabilité de votre conduite et de celle de vos associés politiques et personnels. Vous devez prendre la responsabilité politique des erreurs et des actions discutables des autres, c'est-à-dire des députés, des employés du parti, des membres et des sympathisants. Prétendre que vous n'êtes pas au courant ou que vous ne surveillez pas de près les événements pendant que vous êtes chef, c'est courir à la catastrophe par défaut. Et c'est pourquoi la situation a évolué comme elle l'a fait ces derniers mois.