Jivani in DC: Pick Your Scenario.

Let's start with the least controversial scenario: Jivani and several other CPC MPs went to DC to create further dialogue in hopes of reviving CUSMA negotiations, which of late appear to have stalled. So far, the lead Canadian negotiator, LeBlanc, has been largely unsuccessful in making substantive progress in trade negotiations with the Trump Administration. But this interpretation falls apart for two reasons: the obvious one is the fact that the delegation was not headed by the leader. Secondly, Pierre was caught flat-footed. He and his OLO apparently were not informed about the DC visit. 

The next possibility is the Heseltine scenario: Jivani made the trip to raise his profile and broaden his American contacts because he is biding his time but is intent on challenging Poilièvre's leadership further down the road.  I view this as unlikely given how the last Liberal leadership race went for Freeland. Put another way, he or she who strikes the first blow inevitably doesn't become the leader. Lessons learned in the Canadian context.

The last scenario means setting the stage for the arrival of a black knight who will directly take on Pierre. Under those circumstances, a potential leader like Jivani would support the current one and only join the race if Pierre failed to win on a first ballot. In short, the Major-Hurd example. 

IMHO, this isn't the last act in TheJivaniExperienceTM. It's not a second beachhead, but it ain't nothing either. Likely more to come. Stay tuned.

Léger: Oh, It's Just Eleven Points.

No party has a membership more prone to outright delusional behaviour than mine: the CPC. It's such a hoot listening to your average Conservative supporter or member game the process surrounding a snapshot in time where polls reveal almost universally that the CPC is done as dinner when it comes to winning the next election. I concede that they have a point when the argument is made that methodology is an important factor that may skew poll findings to some degree. Well, yes, but even the pollsters who saw a tighter race did not see a CPC win in April of last year. To put it in elementary terms so that the average Conservative can get it: support wasn't there to win on election night, wasn't there a second time between then and now and won't be there on the next election night. 

Back in the old days of Hollywood, they called Bette Davis box-office poison, and that moniker applies in spades now to the CPC leader. Most potential voters did not like Pierre back when, cared for him even less on election night and don't want to have anything to do with him going forward. So, there you go. 

Caucus knows what they have to do and should just get on with it. Ditch him ASAP so we can have at least a fighting chance in the fall election, which seemingly no one sees coming other than yours truly. But it is coming. 

And for the record: LPC: 48%, CPC: 37%, NDP: 6%, BQ: 6% and GP: 2%. 

First They Restructure Committees And Then...Comes The Poison Pill To Provoke A Fall Election.

Carney's Liberals are happier than a pig in shit. They have no doubt that Pierre will be around as CPC leader in the fall, and that fills them with glee, knowing that when they engineer the sudden need for an election, the opposition parties will be unable to stop it.

This Prime Minister doesn't want a bare majority -- he wants one in Mulroney territory, and polls show that the Liberals can get it this fall without breaking a sweat. So...the manufactured election will do two things: give Carney a huge majority and, in addition, rid the Conservatives of our leader. No one in this party will want Pierre to stick around after that, having lost by that point two elections in a row. You know what they say about happy but limited silver linings! 

 

Fréchette : Le parcours de Campbell est-il instructif ?

La dernière fois qu’une femme a pris la tête du gouvernement fédéral, c’était en 1993, lorsque Kim Campbell est devenue Première ministre. Au moment de son accession au pouvoir, le Parti progressiste-conservateur recueillait environ 12 % des intentions de vote. L’ère Mulroney avait causé de graves dommages. 

Après avoir été élue à la tête du parti, Campbell a rapidement gagné 7 points, avec un taux de popularité supérieur à 40 %. De plus, elle a laissé Jean Chrétien loin derrière elle, avec un taux d’approbation de 51 %. Elle devançait ainsi largement Chrétien, qui n’enregistrait que 31 % dans les sondages. 

Malgré sa popularité, Campbell n’a finalement pas réussi à traduire son soutien personnel en gains pour son gouvernement. Les libéraux ont pris la tête au cours de l’été, dépassant le PPC avec 40 %, soit une avance de 4 points.

À l'automne et pendant la campagne électorale, cet écart s'est creusé, le PLC formant un gouvernement majoritaire avec 42 % des voix, contre 16 % pour le PPC. Ce dernier, qui détenait auparavant un gouvernement majoritaire de 169 sièges, s'est retrouvé réduit à 2 sièges après les élections. En bref, Jean Charest et Elsie Wayne.

La leçon à en tirer est la suivante : même avec une forte popularité personnelle, rien ne garantit que ce soutien individuel sera à l'avantage de ton parti. Fréchette pourrait devoir faire face à ce genre de scénario, s'il venait à se produire lors des prochaines élections.

Armed Attack at the Washington DC Hilton.

Frankly, I didn't think that Trump had it in him: he behaved with class and moderation when speaking to the press once back at the White House. Three times. Simply incredible. Trump must have been born under a lucky star.

White House Correspondents' Dinner: Did the Gunman have a Plastic Gun?

Wow.

Carney's Canada-U.S. Economic Relations Advisory Committee.

This is pure gold for Carney. It reeks of bipartisanship, much to PP's dismay. Among its members are Charest, O'Toole and Raitt, formerly associated with our party, in one case nominally. 

And there's more: the unintentional but obvious subtext goes in two exquisite directions. It gives the middle finger to Harper and Poilièvre in spades and, even more deliciously, is an unanticipated but apparent vote of non-confidence in Pierre's leadership. So, what else is new?!