Saturday, 5 September 2026

Qc125: Electoral Projections.

338Canada Quebec | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Qc125 : Projections électorales.

Qc125 | Sondages et projections électorales

Vote-Scope: All 127 Quebec ridings, redrawn for 2026.

Quebec provincial ridings — Vote-Scope

Vote-Scope : Les 127 circonscriptions du Québec, redessinées pour 2026.

Circonscriptions provinciales du Québec — Vote-Scope

To Be Fair: Mulcair Has Already Called It.

Tom expects an ECF minority win, propped up by the provincial Conservatives.

Fréchette Is In My Test Tube.

Most of them said I was full of shit when I argued that at least ninety percent of PP's woes are due to his personality and likability deficit. I argued that if no one wanted to go have a beer with you, then you were already done. In response, all I got was Trump, Trump, Trump, and that's bullshit!

So, I don't mind proving that I'm right in another context: this isn't yet a prediction. For now, it's only a supposition: I expect the PQ to lead in the polls, probably until E-day. But I also think Fréchette's personal numbers will be better than PSPP's, and therefore her party could pull off a surprise come-from-behind win.

Let's wait and see.

 

Carney's Next Move.

Our next move: counter-tariffs come into effect on Tuesday. But that isn't enough. We need to give the United States a deadline for reaching a deal. If we fail to reach an agreement by that date, then 150% counter-tariffs should apply to non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles, up from the current 25%. And here's our ace in the hole: 100% counter-tariffs on CUSMA-compliant vehicles if Trump manages to get the entire American automobile industry to return all production to America. That's what I call effective hardball.