Liaison.

LPC: 43%

CPC: 32%

NDP: 13%

BQ: 6%

GPC: 3%

PPC: 2%

Nanos.

Liberals: 46%

Conservatives: 29%

New Democrats: 14%

Bloc Québécois: 6%

Greens: 4%

People's Party: 2%

Abacus.

LPC: 42%

CPC: 35%

NDP: 10%

BQ: 8%

GPC: 4%

PPC: 2%

PP: The By-election Curse.

One guess as to who will be going down when we lose all of those ridings. No wonder CPC MPs are already shitting their pants... potentially 60 seats down! They'd rather see PP in the unemployment line rather than each of them. Ain't selfish self-centered interest fun? 

It's no longer if. It's now when for the guy preferred as PM by a whopping 18 percent. Can't wait for Harper's return as leader.

The AOC Pivot: Is It Still Progressive, Mainstream Or Just Politics?

How I admire AOC's political chops. Her radar antenna is right on, and she senses where the country is and isn't. Put succinctly, progressive can win nationally, but progressive can't, even at the top of the Democratic ticket. AOC knows how reflexively moderate to conservative the country is. So, she's moving slowly centrist, at least according to appearances. 

This isn't about egg freezing or drowning the rich in a sea of taxes. It's about electability at a higher level and, more importantly, strengthening the donor base. Put another way, to whom much is given, much is expected, and AOC ain't about to screw that up.

Then comes the question of what's next: the obvious choice is a run for president in 2028, but that's likely not the prize she has in mind. For now,  concentrating on a future Senate run seems the more realistic choice.  Or perhaps to put it in more vulgar terms, is she about to primary Schumer? That would surprise me, but no question certain parts of the DC establishment already want Schumer gone, you know, the way of Pelosi. It's that thing about passing on the baton. 

I like AOC's pre-positioning, for something. We know what they say about killing them with kindness -- and smarts. AOC has already got that one nailed down pat.

Was wird Merz tun, um die AfD fernzuhalten?

Ich mag Merz. Er wirkt auf mich wie ein vernünftiger Mensch, aber was wird er gegen die AfD unternehmen, die in den Umfragen bundesweit vor seiner Partei liegt? Und was noch wichtiger ist: Sollte die CDU/CSU nicht wirtschaftlich mehr in der östlichen Hälfte des Landes tun, um den Lebensstandard und die Einkommen anzuheben? Und dann ist da noch die Einwanderung. Kein Wunder, dass die AfD dort noch weiter vorne liegt.

Das ist wie ein Großbrand. Merz sollte ihn jetzt löschen, wenn er kann. Wir alle erinnern uns daran, was letztes Mal passiert ist, als die extreme Rechte an die Regierung kam.

Québec : Je suis dans Chauveau.

À l’approche des élections, il faut retenir qu’en théorie, au moins la moitié des électeurs pourraient changer d’avis avant le jour du vote. C’est un élément crucial pour les partis d’opposition. Pour ma part, je ne voterai ni pour le PQ ni pour la CAQ. Je souhaite un changement de gouvernement au Québec.

Mon problème reste la précampagne de mon chef  – une démarche qui ne parvient pas à convaincre l’électorat francophone… Par conséquent, je vais attendre le jour du scrutin pour voter. Je souhaite voter libéral, mais si la campagne n’est pas à la hauteur, je n’aurai d’autre choix que de voter pour un autre parti. En bref, Milliard doit se réveiller ; sinon, mon vote ira au Parti conservateur, qui, semble-t-il, a de bonnes chances de gagner des sièges dans la région de la Capitale-Nationale.