PP: The By-election Curse.

One guess as to who will be going down when we lose all of those ridings. No wonder CPC MPs are already shitting their pants... potentially 60 seats down! They'd rather see PP in the unemployment line rather than each of them. Ain't selfish self-centered interest fun? 

It's no longer if. It's now when for the guy preferred as PM by a whopping 18 percent. Can't wait for Harper's return as leader.

The AOC Pivot: Is It Still Progressive, Mainstream Or Just Politics?

How I admire AOC's political chops. Her radar antenna is right on, and she senses where the country is and isn't. Put succinctly, progressive can win nationally, but progressive can't, even at the top of the Democratic ticket. AOC knows how reflexively moderate to conservative the country is. So, she's moving slowly centrist, at least according to appearances. 

This isn't about egg freezing or drowning the rich in a sea of taxes. It's about electability at a higher level and, more importantly, strengthening the donor base. Put another way, to whom much is given, much is expected, and AOC ain't about to screw that up.

Then comes the question of what's next: the obvious choice is a run for president in 2028, but that's likely not the prize she has in mind. For now,  concentrating on a future Senate run seems the more realistic choice.  Or perhaps to put it in more vulgar terms, is she about to primary Schumer? That would surprise me, but no question certain parts of the DC establishment already want Schumer gone, you know, the way of Pelosi. It's that thing about passing on the baton. 

I like AOC's pre-positioning, for something. We know what they say about killing them with kindness -- and smarts. AOC has already got that one nailed down pat.

Was wird Merz tun, um die AfD fernzuhalten?

Ich mag Merz. Er wirkt auf mich wie ein vernünftiger Mensch, aber was wird er gegen die AfD unternehmen, die in den Umfragen bundesweit vor seiner Partei liegt? Und was noch wichtiger ist: Sollte die CDU/CSU nicht wirtschaftlich mehr in der östlichen Hälfte des Landes tun, um den Lebensstandard und die Einkommen anzuheben? Und dann ist da noch die Einwanderung. Kein Wunder, dass die AfD dort noch weiter vorne liegt.

Das ist wie ein Großbrand. Merz sollte ihn jetzt löschen, wenn er kann. Wir alle erinnern uns daran, was letztes Mal passiert ist, als die extreme Rechte an die Regierung kam.

Québec : Je suis dans Chauveau.

À l’approche des élections, il faut retenir qu’en théorie, au moins la moitié des électeurs pourraient changer d’avis avant le jour du vote. C’est un élément crucial pour les partis d’opposition. Pour ma part, je ne voterai ni pour le PQ ni pour la CAQ. Je souhaite un changement de gouvernement au Québec.

Mon problème reste la précampagne de mon chef  – une démarche qui ne parvient pas à convaincre l’électorat francophone… Par conséquent, je vais attendre le jour du scrutin pour voter. Je souhaite voter libéral, mais si la campagne n’est pas à la hauteur, je n’aurai d’autre choix que de voter pour un autre parti. En bref, Milliard doit se réveiller ; sinon, mon vote ira au Parti conservateur, qui, semble-t-il, a de bonnes chances de gagner des sièges dans la région de la Capitale-Nationale.

UK: Nigel Wins.

Clacton-on-Sea has spoken, which means Farage wins in more ways than one. Now, he can rant about a parliamentary witch hunt instigated by his enemies. Sound familiar? Can you say slap on the wrist in the offing, and then the circus will move on.

This is where Burnham has to be Farage's match. He needs to best him and do it quickly, what with polls being described charitably as fluid. One week it's Labour's game, the next week belongs to Reform UK. So, Andy has got his work cut out for him. He would be foolish to underestimate Farage, not to mention his staying power. Reform may be wobbly now, but they're hardly on the ropes. Burnham needs to keep that top of mind.  Reform remains formidable and, as such, remains a considerable political threat. 

Putin Only Has Nine Lives. He Would Be Smart To Go Now.

How ironic that his war has badly turned on him. Russia couldn't take Ukraine, and from their point of view, what a disgrace that is, and it reflects terribly on the guy who amounts to a one-man show.

Ukraine has taken the war to the Russian heartland, not to mention Moscow. Putin would do well to call it quits and go now. Who can he really trust? Not his generals, not those around him and especially not the oligarchs who call the financial tune. Once Putin is seen as working against their interests, it becomes a hot time in the old town tonight. Putin should remember that the better part of valour remains discretion. He should go while the going is still good.

У Путина всего девять жизней. Ему было бы разумно уйти в отставку прямо сейчас.

Как иронично, что его война обернулась против него самого. России не удалось завоевать Украину, и с их точки зрения это настоящий позор, который бросает ужасный отблеск на человека, который, по сути, действует в одиночку.

Украина занесла войну прямо в самое сердце России, не говоря уже о Москве. Путину было бы разумно положить конец всему этому и уйти в отставку прямо сейчас. Кому он на самом деле может доверять? Ни своим генералам, ни окружающим, и уж тем более не олигархам, контролирующим финансовые империи. Как только Путин будет восприниматься как действующий против их интересов, в стране начнутся серьёзные беспорядки. Путину следует помнить, что лучшая часть доблести — это благоразумие. Ему следует уйти в отставку, пока это ещё возможно.