Trudeau: Are The Departure Talks And Negotiations Already Ongoing?

I think so. It feels like the outgoing camp and the likely incoming one are hashing out an agreement leading to Trudeau's departure. It's the opposite of Chrétien and Martin, where the latter's people were trying to bully Chrétien out of the job.

Liberals already know that if they go into the next election with a current cabinet member, that they'll lose spectacularly to the CPC and Poilièvre. Pierre right now is the change agent, so if you're a Liberal, how do you blunt or weaken that factor?

Quite simply, you go with a leader who's not even remotely associated with this disaster of a government. So, at least one candidate is already in the unofficial running. My sense is that it won't exactly be a coronation but more of a handing off of the baton to an almost inevitable successor.

As I said, Trudeau's departure has to be negotiation item one. Ideally, for the incoming group, it would probably be a good idea if Trudeau took his walk in the leaves. That would facilitate the organizing of a leadership race, which more than likely would be a foregone conclusion. A multi-candidate race with a quiet understanding of who is going to win. 

Once Trudeau goes, it's already a new ballgame on the ground, one where the CPC will have to be strategically at their very best to blunt Liberal momentum coming out of a leadership convention. With a new leader running in the next election, there will be no room for strategic error in that campaign. In short, it's very much Poilièvre's election to lose, if he doesn't strategically play his cards right. I think we'll still win under such a scenario, but the huge and perhaps unprecedented CPC landslide will certainly go out the window with a new Liberal leader. Interesting times ahead.

Why The Liberals Can't Win Next Time.

A majority of people would say you can sum it up in two words: Justin T-R-U-D-E-A-U. But that is far too simplistic -- this Prime Minister can hang on so he gets to take the rest of 'em down with him -- but just imagine that HimselfTM leaves, and they go to a convention. If they're foolish enough to choose an establishment government candidate, you know, some fool who acted as a trained seal in the odious Trudeau cabinet, then they're going down, probably for the history books.

However, if Trudeau leaves and a business candidate emerges who's already a star in the sector, not some guy who made his recent money on the government dole, then suddenly, the Liberals are already competitive. So, quite clearly, the next election is for Poilièvre to lose. Personally, I don't think he's actually stupid enough to say something that'll blow him right out of the water in the campaign. In fact, I'm counting on it. 

But what if the next Liberal leader is a business Liberal from the private sector? I still think they'll lose, but if they run a disciplined campaigned with a laser focused message, then we could be reduced to a minority win. Heaven help us if they do. 

This country needs change. We need to get as far away as we can from typical Liberal clubism and cronyism. Only Poilièvre can achieve that by forming government. Pierre IS the designated change-agent, whether you like him or not. 

Johnson: The Fix Is In.

Johnson is not worried about a motion to vacate. He shouldn't be because, quite obviously, he's already cut a deal with Jeffries and the Democrats. They will keep him in office until January. But after that, forget it.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have the best of both worlds: the votes fracture the Republican Party even more as if that wasn't already possible, and all that infighting increases the Democrats' odds of returning as the majority in November. 

Greene and those other fools are cutting their own throats and with gusto. Too funny. Greene, the next Newt who will send the Republicans into one hell of a tailspin. 

Keep an eye on Jeffries. He's clearly on a path to becoming the next Speaker. Republicans blow it again as they tear themselves apart.

Can't wait to see the loser Trump having a fit over Ukraine aid. That, in and of itself, is worth the price of admission. 

Ukraine And Israel Aid Passes!

Johnson came through.

Ukraine passes!

311-112, 1 present.

Yay: 210 Democrats, 101 Republicans
Nay: 112 Republicans

Israel passes!

366-58

Yay: 173 Democrats, 193 Republicans
Nay: 37 Democrats, 21 Republicans

Thank God. This will put off WWIII for a while.

Johnson: Call Taylor Greene's Bluff On Aid.

Look, the time has arrived for Johnson to do what's right intellectually and morally, and that's funding both Ukraine and Israel. Put a bill before the House and let the chips fall where they may. It's clear that Taylor Greene doesn't have the votes to remove Johnson, so her motion to vacate would be a useless parliamentary procedure.

If it comes to a vote, almost all Democrats and a good chunk of Republicans would vote to keep Johnson as Speaker. That's reality. So let her have at it. She won't win. The other thing is the irony of how loyal TG was to McCarthy and how suddenly disloyal she is now. Jeez, I wonder why. Surely, had nothing to do with getting a leadership post then, but not now. Nah. 

The Senate aid bill will pass if brought to the floor by Johnson, especially in light of the Iranian attack on Israel. It's time for Johnson to show that he's got guts. Otherwise, he'll likely go down in history as a failed and weak Speaker. 

Iran Attacks Israel.

Iran has struck Israel with a seeming combination of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. Interceptions have been happening over Jerusalem and likely other parts of Israel. Some have been made by various defensive systems, while fighter aircraft and warships from the United States, Israel and the UK are reported to have been involved.

The Iranian response, to many's surprise, hasn't been proportional. It's viewed as a deliberate escalation in the wake of the destruction of a building near the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. That attack killed seven officers of the Quds Force, including two generals. Israel hasn't claimed responsibility for that attack but is largely viewed as having been responsible.

Let's take a step back and ask why did Israel reportedly attack an Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria? Here's my bet: a direct command and control link between the Quds Force and Hamas before and on October 7th. Nothing else makes sense or probably served as a motive for the Israeli strike. 

But back to the Iranian attack: one might suggest that the disproportionate nature of the Iranian response is an indication of the instability of the Iranian regime. That could be why Iran went big. Clearly, Iran has grossly miscalculated if they expect this attack to be the end of it. 

For her part, Israel has no alternative but to respond in kind with something equally dramatic and probably far more decisive. So, the next shoe to drop is bound to be devastating to Iran. After all, Israel must respond to a de facto declaration of war. Iran, after the fact, wants to tamp things down. They also want the United States and its allies to stay out of it. Not a chance.

Netanyahu will strike back, perhaps later than sooner. It won't be pretty, given that Iran doesn't have the level of sophisticated defence systems that Israel has.

Are these the first innings of a new Middle East war? Probably.    

Trump Hush Money Trial Starts Monday.

As a person who absolutely loathes Trump and always has, I can't believe this trial is going ahead. Seriously, would any other American be placed on trial for allegedly disguising hush money payments to Stormy Daniels as legal bills coming from his then-attorney Michael Cohen?

IMHO, this is more political theatre than anything else. I wonder if any of Bragg's arguments will win the day or be dispositive. Yes, this looks like pretzeled legal reasoning and will only help Trump.

This case stinks and looks relatively weak, to use a common Trumpism. I don't expect even a Manhattan jury to find Trump guilty on any counts. I'll even go further, I expect to see a fallback plan, you know, where a sleeper is placed on the jury to ensure at worst that the jury deadlocks.

So...don't expect any miracles at this trial. All it will likely do is raise Trump's popularity numbers...

God help us.