The Poilievre paradox: Voters agree with everything he says but can't bring themselves to support him.

From: MastermindQuotes.com

The Poilievre paradox: Voters agree with everything he says but can't bring themselves to support him

Why CUSMA Is Already Dead And What Should Come Next.

I thought I would bring you up to date on what's really going on with CUSMA, which will be referred to as USMCA going forward. USMCA was negotiated by the first Trump Administration as a replacement for NAFTA, which, at the time, Trump called the worst trade deal ever negotiated by the United States. That comment should have told us all we needed to know about how Trump handles trade disputes: he mostly complains but also bullies to get his way and moves the goalposts at will, and that's precisely what the Administration is doing now. The formal USMCA renewal date is July 1, 2026, with Trump having three options to choose from: the United States can cancel USMCA on six months' notice; it can be reviewed annually over ten years, or it can be renewed for the next sixteen years. 

Anyone who is even mildly sentient already knows what Trump will do because he has telegraphed it multiple times: he wants a bilateral with Canada similar to one already being negotiated with Mexico, but only on a win-lose basis where Canada caves and gives in on supply management, cultural industries, Chinese EVs and a host of other issues. Trump probably already knows that no self-respecting PM could possibly agree to such terms, so, in essence, there goes the potential bilateral. 

So, what should Canada do next? Given the fact that Dom is a lousy negotiator and his boss lives up to the nickname CluelessCarneyTM, from the bottom of my heart, I'll show them the way forward in this country's best interests: under the WTO's GATT trading principles, Canada should put our industries first when it comes to low-cost imports. All tariffs, with the exception of those on our national security industries, should be dropped unilaterally to 0% to serve as a mechanism to cushion Canadian businesses in this new world where there is no longer a trade agreement with the United States. In crucial areas such as steel, aluminum, lumber, auto parts, pork, and canola, the definitive tariff rate would be negotiated between Ottawa and industry representative lobby groups. In short, the rate should be whatever they can live with while still making a respectable profit. These rates would not affect anti-dumping or countervailing duties already in place unless both industry and the government agreed to modifications. 

Broadly speaking, under MFN rules, these 0% tariffs would apply to all WTO member nations except for countries subject to a specific exemption or in cases where an exemption is proposed by the federal government.

Alberta Referendum: Why The Separatists Will Win!

Let’s start with one of the questions, the one concerning separation:

Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta initiate the legal process provided for in the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should secede from Canada?

I want to make it clear and confirm my support for Smith’s decision to organize this initial referendum. Like her, I believe that Albertans must be heard and that, had the government blocked this initiative, the consequences for national unity would have been both immediate and disastrous. 

Let us now turn to the reasons why I think the separatists will win. They start with 35 percent support for their option. Add to that a vague question, which does not require constitutional negotiations on separation to take place immediately after the referendum, and the final outcome will be chaotic, to say the least. 

 I think the separatists will urge federalist Albertans to send a message to Ottawa by voting ‘Yes’, and if they play their cards right, it won’t be too difficult for them to secure the 15 percent plus one vote they need to get a win. People will be told that it's ‘risk-free’ to vote ‘Yes’ now, and then vote ‘No’ later. This will be a distortion of the well-known refrain that ‘the West wants in’. 

If the ‘Yes’ vote wins, the danger to the Canadian federation will grow rapidly: we know Trump and what he is capable of. I expect his Administration to maintain, at the very least, close ties with the Alberta separatists. Trump has his eye on Alberta’s oil and gas; he might therefore suggest that an independent Alberta could benefit from a fast-track process to achieve statehood, which would pose a problem for the ‘remain’ option. If such a scenario were to unfold, I think Albertans would probably welcome this offer and might, in the end, accept Trump’s offer.

 But let’s get back to the question: if the ‘Yes’ vote wins, it will mean that Smith must resign as UCP leader. Let’s not forget that, on the face of it, she is the head of the federalist camp and its principal advocate in the province. Her party’s members are split into two equal camps on this issue. So… if the ‘No’ vote loses, there's no way Smith can stay on as Premier. 

To sum up: I have a sinking feeling that the ‘Yes’ vote will win. And as a result, this vote will change the course of history in Alberta and in the other Canadian provinces and territories. 

Time To Ratchet Up The Pressure.

You can count on me. Fresh off Rodriguez and now PP is next. God bless the CPC. Time to win again without Pierre keeping us in the ditch.

UK: Starmer Is G-O-N-E!

Now, at least, Labour will have a fighting chance. I prefer the Conservatives but can live with another Labour win if that's what it takes to keep Reform out. No offense, Nigel.

UK: Oh, Christ.

From: The Daily Mail.

An Opinium poll:

He [Burnham] recorded a net acceptability score of +8, ahead of John Healey (-8), Al Carns (-10) and Wes Streeting (-16).

But Mr. Burnham's standing [with the public] has fallen by 12 points since May, representing the largest decline among Sir Keir's possible replacements.

And then there's this: 

When asked who would be the best PM, voters narrowly chose Mrs. Badenoch over Sir Keir by 23 per cent to 22 per cent, while Mr. Farage also maintains a narrow lead over Sir Keir (27 per cent to 26 per cent).

In both cases, around four in ten respondents choose neither option.

But look at voting intention: 

PCC : Réveillez-vous, bande de poltrons !

Je suis désolé de devoir énoncer une évidence, mais le caucus conservateur s’est, dans l’ensemble, montré lâche. Non seulement avons-nous déjà perdu QUATRE élections d’affilée – comme si cela était acceptable pour un politicien du PCC sérieux et réfléchi –, mais même cette réalité ne suffit pas à inciter nos députés à s’opposer à notre chef. 

Je tiens à vous rappeler à tous que la machine du Parti libéral est l’organisation politique la plus efficace du monde occidental. Lorsqu’ils étaient en difficulté dans les sondages à l’automne 2024, ils savaient exactement quoi faire pour conserver le pouvoir : s’inspirant du courage de Long et s’appuyant sur cela étape par étape, l’opposition au chef s’est accélérée et finalement fait boule de neige jusqu’à ce qu’ils parviennent à forcer la main de Trudeau. Trudeau n’avait aucune intention de quitter, tout comme Poilièvre, mais son caucus lui a clairement fait comprendre que s’il ne démissionnait pas, un vote de non-confiance irait de l'avant pour le destituer. C’est pourquoi Trudeau a annoncé à contrecœur, en début de janvier, qu’il démissionnerait de son poste.

Il est tout à fait ridicule qu’un simple membre du parti – insignifiant, inconnu et sans importance – doive servir d’outil aux dissidents. Je n’arrive tout simplement pas à croire qu’aucun député n’ose s’opposer publiquement à Pierre. Votre comportement est bien plus que honteux. Contrairement à vous, les transfuges passent pour des saints. De toute évidence, vous vous fichez complètement de notre parti. Si ce n’était pas le cas, vous lui accorderiez la priorité et feriez tout ce qui est nécessaire pour être dans la course lors des élections surprises de fin d’automne, qui auront lieu juste après le référendum en Alberta et les élections au Québec.

Je terminerai avec une citation de Heseltine :

« La politique, c’est comme le jardinage : il faut être impitoyable. »

Alors, passons à l’action. Débarrassons-nous de PP maintenant.