A Message For Conservative Party MPs.

There are press reports circulating that another ten CPC MPs are considering crossing the floor to sit as Liberals. With respect, and understanding your motives, I urge all of you to stay put and send your message of concern loud and clear to the leader.

It's imperative that you stick around because we need all of our top talent across the moderate Conservative spectrum to put this party back together and win the next election, either under an interim leader who resonates with moderates, centrists and conservatives, or preferably, under a new leader.

We're Conservatives for a reason and we're the only credible alternative to this government. We need all of you to make things happen and change political history in this country. Please remain united in caucus and put your best foot forward in the interest of our country, party and individual Canadians. 

May God Bless the Conservative Party of Canada. 

Pierre, Resign Already.

I don't know about you, but I've finally had enough. It's high time for the leader to quit. We need to be heading into the highly likely November election with at least an interim leader to lessen the hemorrhaging of seats we'll experience if Pierre stays on as leader. 

Perhaps most of you are prepared to lose twenty to thirty fucking seats in that election, but I'm not. So, please, just leave and be quick about it.

Trump: Twenty-fifth Amendment Time!

Trump is so out of it that he revealed classified information that "hundreds" of military personnel took part in the rescue of the military pilot in Iran. He previously also announced publicly that a Member of Congress was dying. That's it, folks. He needs to go now.

And just for fun: if Trump really wants to find "the leaker" simply tell him to turn to his left and voilà. There goes another one.

The Iran War: That Stupid Fuck POS Is Certifiable.

The losses in planes and helicopters are far greater than the Trump Administration has made public. The United States is already losing this war. Incredible. Watch this moron bring in the draft, and America will still lose the war. And to lose to such a horrible regime like Iran. The ultimate disgrace for the United States and those brave and dutiful service people in uniform. May God protect those heroic patriots. This administration will be solely responsible for their deaths and injuries.

Charles Milliard : le prochain premier ministre du Québec.

Il semble que je sois le premier à annoncer que Charles Milliard sera le prochain premier ministre. À mon sens, les dés sont déjà jetés et la situation est tout à fait claire : les élections d’octobre prochain ne seront pas seulement un référendum sur la CAQ, mais aussi sur le PQ et son chef. Et dans ces circonstances, la voie sera ouverte pour que le PLQ puisse gagner avec un gouvernement majoritaire.

Le problème crucial pour le PQ, c’est son obstination, particulièrement l’entêtement de son chef qui veut tenir un référendum sur la souveraineté dès son premier mandat, alors qu’au moins 70 % de la population ne veut rien savoir de cette option. Pour eux, les vieilles querelles entre souverainistes et fédéralistes ont fait leur temps depuis plusieurs années. PSPP ne semble pas avoir la capacité intellectuelle de le comprendre. Pire encore, il sermonne les Québécois à la manière de Harper et de Poilièvre, ce qui aura un effet dévastateur sur les intentions de vote qui, autrefois, étaient non seulement ouvertes à un gouvernement du PQ, mais même fortement disposées à cette éventualité. Ce n’est plus le cas.

De plus, regardons les sondages : je vous rappelle que lorsque Pablo Rodriguez était chef du PLQ, les libéraux avaient réussi à faire une première brèche dans la domination du PQ : ils se situaient à 29 %, le PQ en avance avec une marge de seulement 2 %. Rodriguez était sur la bonne voie, mais à la suite des scandales, le parti s’est retrouvé en baisse de 9 %, le PQ menant avec une marge de 15 %. 

Entre-temps, le PQ a perdu son avance et le parti est désormais au coude à coude avec le PLQ dans un sondage Léger. D’autres sondages situent l’avance du PQ à moins de deux chiffres. Tout cela pour dire que la dynamique des libéraux continuera de prendre du terrain dans les sondages jusqu’en octobre prochain. En effet, Milliard ne sera que partiellement responsable le jour où les libéraux gagneront les prochaines élections. Ce sera surtout PSPP qui fera perdre les élections. Son entêtement et son ton moralisateur, combinés à sa position sur la souveraineté, contribueront à renforcer l’avance des libéraux dans les sondages. En bref, le PLQ l’emportera dans des régions où, jusqu’à présent, ses chiffres dans les sondages étaient négligeables. 

Quelle ironie de voir PSPP devenir le prochain PP,  mal-aimé non seulement pour sa personnalité et son entêtement, mais aussi pour sa volonté de presque forcer les Québécois à adhérer à un projet qui, semble-t-il, ne les intéresse absolument pas. À mon avis, le soir des élections, Milliard, de son for intérieur, devra remercier PSPP du fond du cœur pour cette merveilleuse et largement inattendue soirée électorale en faveur du Parti libéral du Québec.

Why Double Non-Confidence In Pierre's Leadership Is Already On The Table.

In short, Spark Advocacy. This is a large poll of four thousand potential voters. It shows the Liberals with a whopping sixteen-point lead: 46 percent, CPC: 30 percent, the NDP: 11 percent, with the BQ trailing at 5 percent. This is a huge vote of non-confidence in the CPC leader and his front bench. Put another way, likely voters are now finally sealing the deal on Pierre's leadership. This poll couldn't come at a worse time for him, given the fact that the Liberals could win at least two of the byelections being held on April 13th.

Bruce Anderson sums things up regarding the poll here:

Liberals ahead by 16; Approval of Carney government hits 68%

If the Liberals take two of the three byelections, they will have a bare majority, with the speaker potentially losing his job in favour of an opposition member to further cushion that majority. This scenario actually increases the chances of a fall election: Carney will want a formal mandate from voters with an appropriate translation in seats. Imagine the size of the majority that the Liberals could get in a fall election. Think Mulroney territory. 

And if all of that wasn't enough to undermine the level of credibility that Pierre still has in caucus, there are rumblings that several more CPC MPs are going to jump ship post April 13th, using a different strategy: they will show their disapproval of Poilièvre's contuinued leadership by sitting as Independents, thereby sending a strong message to caucus that now is the time to dustoff the Reform Act and vacate the leadership, before Carney can move to an election, which could be held in November, right after the Quebec election. So, interesting times ahead with yours truly remaining skeptical that CPC MPs will really have the guts to put the Reform Act in play. I'll believe it when I see it, but the main point here is that Pierre's leadership becomes untenable right after those byelections. He should go then, but he won't. As for what happens after that, the decision largely rests with the CPC caucus. Leaders are supposed to put party first, but in the cold reality of political self-interest, they usually don't. Expect Pierre to be no different. Remember that, in the Quebec provincial context, Rodriguez's first instinct was to hold on. Unfortunately for him, his caucus had other ideas, and so he resigned in the end. In essence, that was the only realistic and honourable option open to him. 

Is Disbarment In Her Future?

You bet it is! I'm going to enjoy this.