Tuesday, 23 February 2021

Empty Hypodermic: On Panic's Edge.

Over at the Office of the Prime Minister and Privy Council, they aren't exactly all smiles these days. If you can't guess why, then just consider this: you know, they could once again re-name the building and call it what it is -- Empty Hypodermic. The ever dutiful professionals in PCO will do what they can to advise and help out their political masters but even their expertise and competence has its limits, given who's actually Prime Minister. I mean, they don't exactly have a whole lot to work with, now do they?

In any event, now that the PM, Katie and Company and party strategic thinkers have reverted to the mean, that suggests double trouble -- so, in reality, they've only got one possible hope left: they absolutely must bring in Broadhurst full-time to try and turn this vaccine tide. Katie can't do it, nor can Gerry so that leaves only Jeremy to thread this needle.

The funny part will be watching them all in panic mode, most especially Freeland, who will suddenly and rather unexpectedly be looking for a new Chief of Staff. Can even Broadhurst pull it off? I'll be charitable: we'll see soon enough.

A lot more strategic fun and games lie ahead as they try to save HMCS Trudeau. Meanwhile, many Canadians tragically will continue to die while two others rot in a Chinese prison. Dief once said that polls were for dogs. In 2021, the former PM would no doubt have had Liberal Party polls in mind.

Now, they'll all really get to earn their salary trying to save this sinking ship. But the boilers are still burning, so she'll only stay afloat for a while yet. After that, the ship of state will more than likely be transferred onboard HMCS O'Toole.

And so it goes, in federal politics.

Saturday, 20 February 2021

This Is How BOJO Blows It.

Boris with regard to this worldwide pandemic experience was truly blessed by fate: he got COVID-19 and that led to his travelling on the same road as Saint Paul all the way to his own Damascus. He said it himself: the NHS saved his life and his illness gave him new insights, clarity and a better focus on what's truly important in life. It also made BOJO a better person.

But now, Boris is about to face an even more fierce enemy -- one that he and the Chancellor fear and traditionally would not tread on. It's the grand architect of monetary policy known as the Bank of England. The BOE is to economic sanity, stable markets and financial institutions as One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest was to modern mental health services.

The BOE are not simply grievously misguided. In fact they are downright crazy. They have already served notice on the banks that they intend to implement negative interest rates in the next six months. That will not only put a dagger to financial services but will also ultimately destroy the UK's economy. 

The UK will become a meaningless shell of its former self as economic misery takes hold in every quarter of British society. In my book, that's called Japanization of the economy and we all know how that turned out post-1990. But for the Japanese stock market bubble of today, the economy would still be in ruins.

One would think that five years of what I've termed the ECB's Lagarde Lunacy would have been more than enough, but I guess not for the BOE...

So, in short, this is how Boris blows it next time. Some will call a PM's forceful intervention almost unprecedented. But anyone with a brain and some cogent level of strategic insight will call it smart politics instead.

Saturday, 13 February 2021

June 30, 2021 - Bye, Bye, Bond Market.

So, there you have it. That's likely the day that the stock market crashes following the lead of the bond market. And why, you may ask? Quite simply, because another round of The Federal Reserve's stress tests are mandated for most of the largest money-centre banks. Others, are not required to go ahead but do have an option to opt-in.

It's my understanding that the stress-tests will be conducted between April and June and to put it mildly, I'm not an optimistic sort of fellow. Just think back to 2008 when most of the largest banks in the United States were technically insolvent. Thanks to large cash infusions from The Fed, they were brought back to life thereby avoiding a massive bank failure panic almost across the board.

This round of stress-tests will measure bank liquidity in the wake of a computerized algo of a 55% stock market failure -- as some of you already know, Trump got The Fed following intense banking industry lobbying to abolish during this crisis the 10% fractional-banking reserve requirement. For those of you who don't read Fed-Speak or Bank-Speak, that means that up until last March when most of the financial crisis hit, in the wake of COVID-19, financial institutions no longer must have on hand one dollar for every ten dollars on deposit. 

It's doesn't take a genius to tell you where that's going to lead: sudden and unexpected bank holidays where commercial banks, savings and loans and other institutions such as credit unions abruptly close for days or weeks on end due to a lack of cash. And the topper? Either the ATMs don't work or they only dispense $100.00  per day to their customers. That's when bank panics set in with depositors lining up to get their money, on the faint hope that they can.

So, forewarned is forearmed. Keep as little cash as possible in your saving and chequing accounts and don't count on the FDIC in America or CDIC in Canada. And best of luck to all of you.

Saturday, 6 February 2021

Trudeau: No Churchill But On The Way To Becoming One.

Before Liberals start broadly grinning, first a reality check. We all know that this Prime Minister is by no shape of the imagination comparable with Churchill, The Great. Churchill was at his finest when he was in the political wilderness warning Chamberlain and others of the calamity to come. He saw the Nazis rising -- and ultimately proved how Chamberlain was going rapidly down the road to hell -- albeit with good intentions. You can't fault Chamberlain for striving for peace but you can for failing to properly size up his adversary and more importantly, delaying the rearming of the UK as proactively as possible. But I digress.

Now back to our PM: during my ten years of Liberal incarnation -- because I could no longer take Harper's leadership -- I supported Garneau for leadership primarily because those around me who happened to be gifted political strategists all told me the same thing: Trudeau n'est pas prĂȘt.

When Garneau unfortunately fizzled in the race, I turned my attention to electing a Liberal government with not so subtle reservations about the new leader. I chose to give Trudeau the benefit of the doubt thinking that in one aspect, he was another Harper: he would grow in the big job just as Harper did once he came to power. Before that, Harper was a pretty lousy Alliance and CPC leader but he blossomed in power and more than handily developed the capacity to do the job, not just adequately but with real competence and a strong hand on the ship of state. Of course, I remained gone and gladly so, not being able to stomach so much of his political agenda. But again, I digress.

Trouble is that Justin Trudeau never grew in the job, not having even a remote capacity to do so. So like Martin Sheen, he simply played a chief executive on TV.  His acting skills were not altogether unremarkable so he bluffed his way pretty well past a multitude of crisis that would have politically sunk anyone else not fortunate enough to hold the Trudeau brand. And so it went, until COVID-19.

That's when the emperor was finally found to be wearing no clothes. It became a contest to discover who was more incompetent on this file: himself, his PMO or ministers. It was pretty much a draw. In short, when karma finally dealt him the job of dealing with rubber that had hit the road, he was found sorely lacking, to put it kindly.

And as a result, the real possibility of a Liberal rout is suddenly credible once more. Some of us saw it coming in 2006 yes, even with Harper as leader. So, here we are again. O'Toole may be the right man at the right time, just as Attlee was. People are tired, disillusioned, pissed off, mournful and most of all, prepared psychologically for political change. That's why I say the next election is already O'Toole's to lose. 

Ironically, that potentially puts this Prime Minister in Churchill's shoes. The latter won them a war and they still tossed him to the curb. This guy has proven himself to be well below the bare capacity level required to do his job. Like Sheen, he's quite content to play a leader on TV. The only question is, are all of you still willing to let him continue?


Saturday, 30 January 2021

Marco, Cry Me A River!

Political infestations can be hardy, worrisome and relatively long-lasting. Such is the case with the Trump chaos and lunacy: guess what Marco? It seems that the newly domiciled Ivanka (and Jared) are building that there mansion in Miami, given the fact that so many people in NYC can no longer stomach them. That's no big reveal.

So, the dynamic duo are sitting it out in a condo, making big political plans. You guessed it: Ivanka is going to primary Rubio and if I was the latter, I'd start to seriously sweat just about now. Can Trump beat Rubio? Absolutely. Why? Quite simply because there is no widespread Trump repudiation, neither among his supporters nor even surprisingly, in the so-called Republican party.

You know the Republicans, either too stupid, desperate or unprincipled to take on the latest rat infestation otherwise known as That Girl. She is nothing more than an elected domestic terrorist, just like those who invaded Capitol Hill and they all deserve a speedy trial and if convicted, a long stretch in the slammer. In the good old days, they used firing squads for traitors. But most governments are far more civilized now.

May God continue to bless the United States of America and may she continue to effectively deal with domestic terrorists, post Timothy McVeigh.

Wednesday, 20 January 2021

Biden...At Last.

This will be my shortest post ever: Thank God and may he bless The United States of America.

Sunday, 17 January 2021

Apparently, We've Got No Interest In Trump Conservatives Or Their Methods.

I'll say one thing right off the bat: if O'Toole and the party establishment are really of that mind, then it's one hell of a gutsy move. Even in my small CPC world, I happen to have friends who are pro-Trump, even after everything. I wonder just how much of the membership really thinks that way -- Bergen MAGA hat, or no MAGA hat.

Obviously, as a longstanding and permanent progressive conservative, I'm more than delighted if what appeared in The Star is accurate: I'm thoroughly in the RBG column having long ago branded Trump as both a phoney and a faker.

However, didn't see his dictatorial tendencies coming which now are for all to see. Frankly, I'm even amazed that they won't actually have to drag him out of The White House, especially after the Trump-provoked insurgency on Capitol Hill. But I digress.

I've always maintained that O'Toole or MacKay were basically two sides of the same coin. I went with Peter because I know him slightly and in my book, he was comfortable with the Mulroney side of the party. (Of course, not the money in little packets side. LOL.)

I think that Erin's instincts are correct that everyone in the party is deserving of a voice and respect from all. You don't have to agree with them -- or even make policy based on their positions but they are first-class party members just like the rest of us.

Where I draw the line is on the various Proud You-Know-What-Incarnations. They are just fascists under another convenient cloak and I've got absolutely no time for those types. Nor should the CPC.

So, I'm on board for the long haul come what may. I support the leader and the good news is that he doesn't get under my skin like the last two. Basically, with Harper it was no-go from the moment he became Alliance leader and that never changed. Scheer was way out of his depth on Day One but hey, even I, if then a member, would have enthusiastically supported him just to get the maximum dividend possible, you know, keeping You Know Who out.

In the end, it boils down to this: a highly strategic and middle-class focused O'Toole beats a Trudeau one, stuck with far more negative baggage than is good for him, or his re-election chances. Like I said during my ten years of Liberal membership, I supported Marc Garneau for leader. That says it all, I think. I see Marc got a well-deserved promotion and I couldn't be happier. Bonne chance! But once again, I digress.