That brings us to the erratic thinking behind Xi's apparent desire to invade Taiwan, which American national intelligence agencies have publicly predicted could occur as early as next year. Xi's motives are apparently two-fold: an argument suggests that he could easily consolidate power during wartime, with the country rallying to his cause if military victory appeared possible over the medium term. The second reason is more personal and dubious: it's my understanding that Xi believes in the search to extend lifespans and that that also comes into the mix. Taken together, it remains likely that an invasion is only a question of when in Xi's mind.
However, Xi's removal of Zhang and Liu did not play out as expected. One needs to understand why Zhang was adamantly opposed to invading Taiwan. He recognized that it was insane, given the American commitment to the island. Zhang knew that the Americans could never opt out, even if already engaged in other war operations at the same time. For Trump, or any other president, Taiwan remains a national-security red line in the Indo-Pacific theatre. The other critical motive behind Zhang's opposition to an invasion is the elephant in the room: the open secret in army circles about endemic corruption in the military leading to inoperable and faulty defence equipment and systems. That sad reality, taken from a Chinese perspective, was demonstrated for all the world to see in Iran. Put another way, Xi can't count on military hardware and systems to operate as designed, or even function at all in a wartime environment. That's the brutal reality that Xi faces. It's somewhat ironic that the incorruptible Zhang was the messenger about all of the rampant corruption that has plagued the military for decades.
Then there are other PLA considerations: it's no coincidence that the likely deaths of Zhang and Liu have not been publicly announced. The longer we wait for news about their fate, the more likely they were summarily executed by national security or police forces. That can only mean trouble for Xi. Eventually, the news will come out, and it won't be to Xi's advantage. When it does, that will seal the deal on the impossibility of invading Taiwan. From that point on, Xi will be at his most vulnerable and could be taken down by the military. In the interim, Xi will undoubtedly do all he can to take back power, but will it be enough?
Finally, keep in mind the role that the CIA is playing in China, not only egging on and likely in some cases fomenting dissent and unrest in the main cities, but also conceivably playing a hand in the explosions heard across China. Those explosions can't be pinned on the PLA, because if the military were the source, they would have moved against Xi by now. No wonder Xi wants Trump in Beijing on March 31st. The end result, from his perspective, is likely to be disappointing to say the very least. It's a red horse year, and it is rapidly galloping further into the distance. That likely portends ill for the future. Wen Jiabao recently asked the trillion-dollar question. All of China and the rest of the world are waiting for the final answer.
