Trudeau: Are The Departure Talks And Negotiations Already Ongoing?

I think so. It feels like the outgoing camp and the likely incoming one are hashing out an agreement leading to Trudeau's departure. It's the opposite of Chrétien and Martin, where the latter's people were trying to bully Chrétien out of the job.

Liberals already know that if they go into the next election with a current cabinet member, that they'll lose spectacularly to the CPC and Poilièvre. Pierre right now is the change agent, so if you're a Liberal, how do you blunt or weaken that factor?

Quite simply, you go with a leader who's not even remotely associated with this disaster of a government. So, at least one candidate is already in the unofficial running. My sense is that it won't exactly be a coronation but more of a handing off of the baton to an almost inevitable successor.

As I said, Trudeau's departure has to be negotiation item one. Ideally, for the incoming group, it would probably be a good idea if Trudeau took his walk in the leaves. That would facilitate the organizing of a leadership race, which more than likely would be a foregone conclusion. A multi-candidate race with a quiet understanding of who is going to win. 

Once Trudeau goes, it's already a new ballgame on the ground, one where the CPC will have to be strategically at their very best to blunt Liberal momentum coming out of a leadership convention. With a new leader running in the next election, there will be no room for strategic error in that campaign. In short, it's very much Poilièvre's election to lose, if he doesn't strategically play his cards right. I think we'll still win under such a scenario, but the huge and perhaps unprecedented CPC landslide will certainly go out the window with a new Liberal leader. Interesting times ahead.

Why The Liberals Can't Win Next Time.

A majority of people would say you can sum it up in two words: Justin T-R-U-D-E-A-U. But that is far too simplistic -- this Prime Minister can hang on so he gets to take the rest of 'em down with him -- but just imagine that HimselfTM leaves, and they go to a convention. If they're foolish enough to choose an establishment government candidate, you know, some fool who acted as a trained seal in the odious Trudeau cabinet, then they're going down, probably for the history books.

However, if Trudeau leaves and a business candidate emerges who's already a star in the sector, not some guy who made his recent money on the government dole, then suddenly, the Liberals are already competitive. So, quite clearly, the next election is for Poilièvre to lose. Personally, I don't think he's actually stupid enough to say something that'll blow him right out of the water in the campaign. In fact, I'm counting on it. 

But what if the next Liberal leader is a business Liberal from the private sector? I still think they'll lose, but if they run a disciplined campaigned with a laser focused message, then we could be reduced to a minority win. Heaven help us if they do. 

This country needs change. We need to get as far away as we can from typical Liberal clubism and cronyism. Only Poilièvre can achieve that by forming government. Pierre IS the designated change-agent, whether you like him or not. 

Johnson: The Fix Is In.

Johnson is not worried about a motion to vacate. He shouldn't be because, quite obviously, he's already cut a deal with Jeffries and the Democrats. They will keep him in office until January. But after that, forget it.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have the best of both worlds: the votes fracture the Republican Party even more as if that wasn't already possible, and all that infighting increases the Democrats' odds of returning as the majority in November. 

Greene and those other fools are cutting their own throats and with gusto. Too funny. Greene, the next Newt who will send the Republicans into one hell of a tailspin. 

Keep an eye on Jeffries. He's clearly on a path to becoming the next Speaker. Republicans blow it again as they tear themselves apart.

Can't wait to see the loser Trump having a fit over Ukraine aid. That, in and of itself, is worth the price of admission. 

Ukraine And Israel Aid Passes!

Johnson came through.

Ukraine passes!

311-112, 1 present.

Yay: 210 Democrats, 101 Republicans
Nay: 112 Republicans

Israel passes!

366-58

Yay: 173 Democrats, 193 Republicans
Nay: 37 Democrats, 21 Republicans

Thank God. This will put off WWIII for a while.

Johnson: Call Taylor Greene's Bluff On Aid.

Look, the time has arrived for Johnson to do what's right intellectually and morally, and that's funding both Ukraine and Israel. Put a bill before the House and let the chips fall where they may. It's clear that Taylor Greene doesn't have the votes to remove Johnson, so her motion to vacate would be a useless parliamentary procedure.

If it comes to a vote, almost all Democrats and a good chunk of Republicans would vote to keep Johnson as Speaker. That's reality. So let her have at it. She won't win. The other thing is the irony of how loyal TG was to McCarthy and how suddenly disloyal she is now. Jeez, I wonder why. Surely, had nothing to do with getting a leadership post then, but not now. Nah. 

The Senate aid bill will pass if brought to the floor by Johnson, especially in light of the Iranian attack on Israel. It's time for Johnson to show that he's got guts. Otherwise, he'll likely go down in history as a failed and weak Speaker. 

Iran Attacks Israel.

Iran has struck Israel with a seeming combination of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. Interceptions have been happening over Jerusalem and likely other parts of Israel. Some have been made by various defensive systems, while fighter aircraft and warships from the United States, Israel and the UK are reported to have been involved.

The Iranian response, to many's surprise, hasn't been proportional. It's viewed as a deliberate escalation in the wake of the destruction of a building near the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. That attack killed seven officers of the Quds Force, including two generals. Israel hasn't claimed responsibility for that attack but is largely viewed as having been responsible.

Let's take a step back and ask why did Israel reportedly attack an Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria? Here's my bet: a direct command and control link between the Quds Force and Hamas before and on October 7th. Nothing else makes sense or probably served as a motive for the Israeli strike. 

But back to the Iranian attack: one might suggest that the disproportionate nature of the Iranian response is an indication of the instability of the Iranian regime. That could be why Iran went big. Clearly, Iran has grossly miscalculated if they expect this attack to be the end of it. 

For her part, Israel has no alternative but to respond in kind with something equally dramatic and probably far more decisive. So, the next shoe to drop is bound to be devastating to Iran. After all, Israel must respond to a de facto declaration of war. Iran, after the fact, wants to tamp things down. They also want the United States and its allies to stay out of it. Not a chance.

Netanyahu will strike back, perhaps later than sooner. It won't be pretty, given that Iran doesn't have the level of sophisticated defence systems that Israel has.

Are these the first innings of a new Middle East war? Probably.    

Trump Hush Money Trial Starts Monday.

As a person who absolutely loathes Trump and always has, I can't believe this trial is going ahead. Seriously, would any other American be placed on trial for allegedly disguising hush money payments to Stormy Daniels as legal bills coming from his then-attorney Michael Cohen?

IMHO, this is more political theatre than anything else. I wonder if any of Bragg's arguments will win the day or be dispositive. Yes, this looks like pretzeled legal reasoning and will only help Trump.

This case stinks and looks relatively weak, to use a common Trumpism. I don't expect even a Manhattan jury to find Trump guilty on any counts. I'll even go further, I expect to see a fallback plan, you know, where a sleeper is placed on the jury to ensure at worst that the jury deadlocks.

So...don't expect any miracles at this trial. All it will likely do is raise Trump's popularity numbers...

God help us.

Trumpomics: A Path To Total Economic Failure.

The Biden Administration keeps saying that the economy is in very good shape, but that's not what people are feeling on the ground. Hence, Biden's approval rating of roughly 40%. Normally, Biden's re-election would already be a write-off, given that every single American incumbent president who polled under 50% in November in an election year did not get re-elected. Biden's people are cooking the economic numbers, and the business press is largely complicit in that.

So...normally Biden would already be a loser in November, but then there are a couple of things likely to work in his favour: Trump's various trials and then there's a whopper called Trumponomics. Not convinced? Then just look at Trump Media: the stock is tanking, wiping out one billion dollars of Trump's net worth. No kidding. 

In Trump World, four million in revenue is a great achievement, while fifty-eight million in losses is fake news, a distraction and mere detail. And the topper: jackass Nunes gets to keep his six hundred thousand in retention bonus (along with one million dollar salary) while presiding over the stock's swan dive.

Ah, Trumpomics, doing for small investors what he'll do for the rest of you if Trump gets to return as President. The filthy rich can't wait for the Trump tax cuts not to expire as scheduled later this year. But don't worry billionaires and millionaires, Trump plans to cut your taxes even more if he returns to the White House. Comforting for the mega-rich. Not so much for everyone else.

   

Le miracle des F16?

Les forces aériennes du Danemark et des Pays-Bas prévoient de transférer des dizaines d'avions combattants en Ukraine. La première de ces livraisons devrait avoir lieu cet été. Les transferts seront mis en œuvre avec l’aide des États-Unis, qui joueront un rôle clé pour assurer la mise en œuvre réussie du transfert des F16 en temps opportun.

Mais quelle est l’importance de ces transferts? Ils permettront une couverture aérienne limitée, mais ne donneront pas nécessairement un avantage aux Ukrainiens dans le ciel ni une supériorité absolue.

Il est beaucoup plus important d’acheminer l’aide américaine à l’Ukraine par l’intermédiaire du Congrès. Il est absolument nécessaire d’appuyer l’aide américaine à l’Ukraine pour assurer la liberté et la démocratie dans le monde. C’est presque un trésor.

L’éléphant dans la pièce est le fait que les gouvernements américains et d’autres gouvernements font face à un choix de gouvernance. Nous pouvons soutenir la démocratie ukrainienne dans sa lutte contre la Russie, ou nous pouvons créer des conditions en Ukraine et dans d’autres pays européens qui, en fin de compte, exigent la participation active des forces américaines et de l’OTAN pour assurer la démocratie sur le continent européen. En d’autres termes, nous pouvons combattre la Russie par l’intermédiaire du représentant ukrainien ou échouer dans notre défense de la démocratie, ce qui conduira à la participation active de l’OTAN au soutien des démocraties libérales en Europe. Compte tenu du programme de Poutine en Europe, nous pouvons combattre Poutine maintenant à travers l’Ukraine ou inévitablement le combattre plus tard dans une guerre à part entière sur le continent européen. Mais dans tous les cas, la Russie doit être restreinte, ou la plupart de l’Europe peuvent tomber sous la domination russe. C’est un aperçu que les républicains du Congrès ignorent à leurs risques et périls. 

The F16 Miracle?

The air forces of Denmark and The Netherlands plan to transfer dozens of fighters to Ukraine. The first of those deliveries is expected to take place this summer. Transfers will be implemented with the help of the United States, which will play a key role in ensuring the successful implementation of the timely transfer of F16s.

But how important are these transfers? They will allow a limited level of air coverage, but will not necessarily give Ukrainians an advantage in the air, namely, superiority in the sky.

Much more important is getting U.S. aid to Ukraine through Congress. Supporting U.S. assistance to Ukraine is an absolute necessity when it comes to ensuring freedom and democracy around the world. It's almost a treasure trove.

The elephant in the room is the fact that the American and other governments face a choice of governance. We can support Ukraine's democracy in its struggle against Russia, or we can create conditions in Ukraine and other European countries that ultimately require the active involvement of American and NATO forces to ensure democracy on the European continent. In other words, we can fight Russia through the Ukrainian representative or fail in our defence of democracy, which will lead to NATO's active participation in supporting liberal democracies throughout Europe. Given Putin's agenda in Europe, we can fight Putin now through Ukraine or inevitably fight him later in a full-fledged war on the European continent. But in any case, Russia must be restrained, or most of Europe may fall under Russian domination. It's a big picture that Republicans in Congress ignore at their peril.

Диво F16?

Повітряні сили Данії та Нідерландів планують передати Україні десятки винищувачів. Очікується, що перша з цих поставок відбудеться цього літа. Трансферти будуть реалізовуватися за допомогою США, які відіграватимуть ключову роль у забезпеченні успішної реалізації своєчасної передачі F16.

Але наскільки важливі ці трансфери? Вони дозволять обмежений рівень покриття повітря, але не обов'язково дадуть українцям перевагу в повітрі в небі.

Набагато важливішим є отримання допомоги США Україні через Конгрес. Підтримка допомоги США Україні є абсолютною необхідністю, коли йдеться про забезпечення свободи та демократії у всьому світі. Це майже скарбниця.

Слон у кімнаті - це той факт, що американські та інші уряди стоять перед вибором управління. Ми можемо підтримати демократію України в її боротьбі проти Росії, або ми можемо створити умови в Україні та інших європейських країнах, які в кінцевому підсумку вимагають активного залучення американських і натовських сил для забезпечення демократії на європейському континенті. Іншими словами, ми можемо боротися з Росією через українського представника або провалитися в нашому захисті демократії, що призведе до активної участі НАТО в підтримці ліберальних демократій по всій Європі. Враховуючи порядок денний Путіна в Європі, ми можемо боротися з Путіним зараз через Україну або неминуче боротися з ним пізніше в повноцінній війні на європейському континенті. Але в будь-якому випадку Росія повинна бути стриманою, або більша частина Європи може потрапити під російське панування. Це велика картина, яку республіканці в Конгресі ігнорують на свій страх і ризик.

Bill 56: A National Disgrace.

The problem in Quebec isn't really equality between men and women. The real problem is Quebec's politicians. In Quebec, the collective power of women politicians is ignored. There is no women's caucus that goes beyond party caucuses. A monumental error on the part of the women who sit in the National Assembly. 

It seems that Quebec City's politicians remain vehemently opposed to the concept of legal equality between the sexes in the Civil Code, particularly in the Code's Family Law chapter. Interestingly, every other jurisdiction in North America substantially settled these issues by the 1980s. What an embarrassment for Quebec and its citizens. 

Once again, the problem lies between the ears of politicians: what a motley crew: re: chiropractors, optometrists, paramedics and the list goes on. In Quebec, unlike other jurisdictions, there was an eternity of debate before the province reflected the reality of the 20th and 21st centuries. 

Returning to Bill 56, such an opting-out mentality for common-law partners is not only embarrassing for Quebec society, but also fundamentally discriminatory. What's more, women who have no children and those living in blended families have no additional rights...what a ridiculous and senseless legal situation. 

It doesn't take the intellectual capacity of a MENSA member to understand the result of these exceptions: a loss of rights for women, which from the outset were only conditional and arbitrary. It's not unreasonable to conclude that when there's trouble in a couple, more often than not, the male spouse is likely to move on, i.e. "change" spouse. 

This worrying political reality in Quebec does not reflect the reality on the ground. A survey conducted by INRS and the Université de Sherbrooke shows that seventy-two percent of Quebecers are in favour of legal equality between married and common-law spouses. Seventy-six percent of non-married spouses also agree. Among women, the figure is seventy-five percent, compared with sixty-eight percent for men. In short, Quebec society is already politically au rendez-vous. Politicians in Quebec City, NO. 

Given the cowardice of the Supreme Court of Canada's decision in the Lola case, it becomes imperative to change our politicians in Quebec City. Without a major reform of those who sit in the National Assembly, Quebec City will remain a representation of mixed parental rights. 

Over to you, the voters!

Le projet de loi 56 : une honte nationale.

Le problème au Québec n'est pas vraiment l'égalité entre les hommes et les femmes. Le vrai problème, c'est la classe politique québécoise. Au Québec, le pouvoir collectif des femmes politiques est ignoré. Il n'y a pas de caucus des femmes qui dépasse les caucus des partis. Une erreur monumentale de la part des femmes qui siègent à l'Assemblée nationale. 

Il semble que les politiciens de la ville de Québec restent farouchement opposés au concept d'égalité juridique entre les sexes dans le Code civil, en particulier dans le chapitre du Code de la famille. Il est intéressant de noter que toutes les autres juridictions d'Amérique du Nord ont substantiellement réglé ces questions dans les années 1980. Quel embarras pour le Québec et ses citoyens. 

Une fois de plus, le problème se situe entre les oreilles des politiciens : quelle équipe hétéroclite. Chiropraticiens, optométristes, ambulanciers, et j'en passe. Au Québec, contrairement à d'autres juridictions, il y a eu une éternité de débats avant que la province ne reflète la réalité des 20ᵉ et 21ᵉ siècles. 

Pour en revenir au projet de loi 56, une telle mentalité d'exclusion des conjoints de fait est non seulement embarrassante pour la société québécoise, mais aussi fondamentalement discriminatoire. De plus, les femmes qui n'ont pas d'enfants et celles qui vivent dans des familles reconstituées n'ont aucun droit supplémentaire... Quelle situation juridique ridicule et insensée. 

Il ne faut pas avoir la capacité intellectuelle d'un membre de MENSA pour comprendre le résultat de ces exceptions : une perte de droits pour les femmes, qui n'étaient au départ que conditionnels et arbitraires. Il n'est pas déraisonnable de conclure que lorsqu'il y a des problèmes dans un couple, le plus souvent, le conjoint masculin est susceptible de passer à autre chose, c'est-à-dire de "changer" de conjoint. 

Cette réalité politique inquiétante au Québec ne reflète pas la réalité sur le terrain. Un sondage réalisé par l'INRS et l'Université de Sherbrooke démontre que soixante-douze pour cent des Québécois sont en faveur de l'égalité juridique entre les conjoints mariés et les conjoints de fait. Soixante-seize pour cent des conjoints non mariés sont également de cet avis. Chez les femmes, le chiffre est de soixante-quinze pour cent, contre soixante-huit pour cent chez les hommes. Bref, la société québécoise est déjà politiquement au rendez-vous. Politiciens à Québec, NON. 

Devant la lâcheté de la décision de la Cour suprême du Canada dans l'affaire Lola, il devient impératif de changer nos politiciens à Québec. Sans une réforme majeure de ceux qui siègent à l'Assemblée nationale, Québec demeurera une représentation des droits parentaux mixtes. 

À vous, les électeurs !