Ukraine: Keep The Damned Faith Straight Through To The End.

I have no time for Russian apologists or sympathizers who go on and on about alleged Ukraine corruption and why that should disqualify that country from obtaining ongoing defensive Western military aid. That matter will inevitably have to be addressed internally before European Union membership is ultimately granted. But there's no time for that, smack right in the middle of a Russian invasion that Putin has finally called a war.

Putin, because he's losing and fears above all else potentially losing control at home, is suddenly calling for bona fide negotiations to put an end to the conflict. That won't ever end this war for any number of reasons: first and foremost, this is a clear war between good and evil, just like WWII and those types of wars ultimately end only with unmitigated military victory. That's what will happen here. War crimes have been committed, mostly on the Russian side, and Putin and his entourage seriously risk being the pipers who will pay for that. 

Another reason why the war will continue is because of serial management of oligarchs and other opponents by The Kremlin: poisoning is the soup-du-jour with balcony swan dives as an eventual appetizer, if necessary. Internal opponents have to get lucky once, while Putin and his people arrange things to be serially lucky and brutally effective all of the time. It's that blood-chilling message that keeps him in power and makes damned sure that no fifth column develops internally that could take him out. 

So, like I said, this won't end like Georgia or Ukraine I. This thing goes all the way to the end. Putin is not of a mind to have the West blow Russia off the face of the Earth so the nukes will never, ever, fly. With his intelligence background, he knows perfectly well that it's not in Russia's national security interests to expand this war by attacking NATO. So, that also is a non-starter. In short, Russia is hurting, and its economy is taking a serious battering. There is no winning endgame for Russia, and Putin knows that. He would do well not to take deliberate action that would eventually corner him. How he must regret his personal folly, which is unlikely to lead to military victory, nor to the retention of much of occupied Ukraine. Watch Crimea above all else. What happens there will likely show the way ahead for the rest of the war.

Jagmeet Singh: No Rhyme Nor Reason.

Am I full of shit? You see, I back the political conventional wisdom -- the one that says that Singh is a fool for repeatedly agreeing to back the Trudeau Liberals -- and therefore, he should get his head handed to him by the Liberals in the next election. You know how it goes: serial NDP leaders back the Liberals on confidence and end up having their lunch eaten by Liberal candidates in a subsequent election.

But, but, but...what's the thing in the polls about Canadians actually preferring Jagmeet over Trudeau or Poilièvre!? Get this, many of them aren't planning to vote NDP, but they still prefer Singh over the other leaders. Singh to this day is still over 50%. So, what's this wrinkle all about?  Damned if I know.

So, in short, I'm taking it back about NDP MPs pro forma losing their seats in the next election. At a minimum, I have to caveat my political assumptions. My foundational conclusions about Jagmeet and his party may not actually be on target in the end. Imagine that.

Now, politically, if the NDP keeps most of their seats and remains relatively strong, what does that do to Liberal chances under Trudeau or a successor? Can they still come up the middle and win re-election? For sure, not as easily as if NDP support collapsed in an election, but hey, Trudeau might just be able to hang on. Maybe.

That to me is at the very least distressing, if not shocking. Trudeau might win again. Well, that ruins my day and the rest of the year. Fortunately, only one day remains on the calendar.

He's Still Behind The Curve Jerome.

Jerome Powell has been reborn. Today, he's a natural reflection of his true economic nature, basically, a Volcker-inspired monetarist. How tough it must have been for him to be truly accommodative, pushing forward with QE while knowing that inevitably it would be massively inflationary. Things were chugging along just great straight through 2021 with The Fed Funds Rate effectively at below 1%. 

After all of that, it was almost a foregone conclusion that The Federal Reserve would put blinders on and remain inexcusably dovish. Rates almost imperceptibly began to rise, but remained below the 2% target all the way up to last spring. First, The Fed said that the 2% target would not be breached, and it was. Then they argued that inflation would be transitory, and it wasn't. Now they call it sticky and stubborn.

After the last 50 basis points rate hike, the FFR is now at 4.4%. The consensus among the so-called experts is that a pause in hikes is now in order, with some speculating that rate drops could begin as soon as this spring. 

Talk about pie in the sky: the official inflation rate is now 7.1% having dropped from a high of 7.7% previously. That of course is the cooked number that does not include housing, food or gas. In reality, the unofficial number is more like 15%, having dropped about two points from earlier monthly calculations.

So...The Fed still remains massively behind the curve and has no other choice but to wreck the economy in search of future perceptible inflation drops. People forget that when Volcker came in and got started, the FFR was already at 11%! He finally broke the back of inflation by raising rates all the way to 19.5%.

That means the wrecking ball is already on order and about to be delivered. There's no chance of a soft landing for this economy -- in fact, I expect continued rate hikes at least all the way to the fall, coupled with a sooner than expected recession onset. IMHO, it's only once a recession is confirmed that The Fed will finally begin to pause and then backtrack. Not before.

Put succinctly, a recession is definitely in the cards, along with a steady move up in unemployment. Jerome knows he's still behind the curve, so don't expect Powell to change course anytime soon. Going forward, it's not just inflation that's sticky and stubborn. So's Powell, or at least his mindset. For the foreseeable future, it's still full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes, come what may.

Chuck, Nancy, Dumplings.

Yes, I watched it on CNN and thought it was great fun,  especially when Nancy said a family intervention was required. Dead on but ultimately hopeless IMHO. Trump is his own worst enemy. No one else even comes remotely close and that's saying something.

Unlike both of them, I've broken with Biden. Sure, he has accomplishments some of which are not insignificant but hey, Joe totally blew it on the economy and inflation. So, he needs to go, period. Same with Trump.

I want to see a new generation of leadership in both parties. As much as I like and admire Nancy, I'm glad she's going too. Frankly, she should have taken responsibility in 2020 and left then.

So, 2024 could be interesting. My first choice in 2020 was Kamala and later Pete. The country is too sexist and misogynist for her to win a general so I hope Pete gets in again. I'm definitely not for Newsom. Nope, no thanks.

On the Republican side, DeSantis is not the great savior people make him out to be. So, others could emerge and I don't mean Paul, Cruz or any of the other usual suspects. They need a breakthrough nominee to win big and DeSantis ain't it. 

In the end, it could potentially go either way. But frankly, it isn't in the cards for Biden and probably not Trump, if an A-lister can be found.

But as 2022 showed all of us, predictions are now but the folly of fools. 

Pierre Poilièvre: I Just Don't KNOW!

My God, I've just got to write this out, you know, as a form of political and psychological therapy: I mean, Pierre's leadership is like exploring the dwarf planet Pluto. I've got no strong conclusions, convictions, or even keen insights about where this leadership will go and worse than that, I have no reference points in my mind and frankly, it's driving me fucking bananas!

I've never, ever, seen this before with any politician: in other cases, I started out either liking, loving or hating them, mostly from the get-go and my political feelings and instincts took it from there. Most of the time, luckily, I was on target but sometimes I completely blew it: think of the POS known as Trump. 

But back to Pierre: got absolutely no firm idea where this is really going. It's like it's up to the fates rather than us mere mortals -- I don't sense a train chugging along either to victory or defeat -- it's like I'm in a void, some kind of a black, empty space where I simply can't get my political bearings. Like I said, in 61 years, it's never, ever, happened before and it positively blows my mind. 

So, I've just got to continue writing it out as it flows. One senses that both God and humans have already had enough of Trudeau at the helm but is that, in and of itself enough to lead to regime change in Ottawa?

Damned if I know. Not at all. In short, don't count on me next time for precise analysis, inductive reasoning, insightful break throughs or anything else because for the first time in my life, I just don't know. Talk about an ego crusher and riddle that deflates previous political pride at mostly getting it right. 

So there you have it for whatever it's worth; if it's worth anything at all. And it didn't involve my psychiatrist which is great because he's already overworked within the system.

Willie Sutton Never Said It: 'That's Where the Money Is'.

The legend based on nothing is a good starting point for discussing Sinema: one would think it's obvious why she's ditched the Democrats when for many people it won't be. It's all about holding on to her job and increasing her chances of re-election, which was probably unlikely had she remained a Democrat. 

So...clearly, it's a play for future independent votes, of which there are many, and this Democrat won't be shitting on her for that. I'm a what's good for the goose is good for the gander type of guy. If it's OK for Bernie or King, then it's fine with me. Maybe it'll save her, and perhaps she'll go down fighting anyway.

Downside, it's still a 51-49 Senate but being even more accommodating to Sinema's views (and Manchin's) will require clever stick handling as we say up North. Otherwise, Harris will be in for a very long and tiring two years. 

Biden Is So Lucky That 2024 Isn't Tomorrow.

As a Democrat, I'm amazed that Biden actually wants to run for re-election. Let's face it, Biden would be an unusually weak candidate for re-election, and everyone knows it. It's no news to Joe: his polling ain't great, with approval ratings running from 36 to 45 percent, and those aren't solid re-election numbers. No other incumbent president with numbers like that has ever won re-election, period.

Then there's the implicit self-admission by The White House that Biden cannot or likely will not win re-election under the current caucus and primary system. That's why Biden is proposing change: you know, making South Carolina a first-in-the-nation primary, followed by Nevada and Iowa, then Georgia, Michigan, etc. Let's face it, if Biden is president, he can largely thank Jim Clyburn for that. So this looks like payback, in a good way, and it's cynical as hell. 

No one expected the midterm results, other than a very few. Biden seems to think that those results can be extended all the way to 2024. I don't think so. Biden's only hope is Trump. If any other Republican becomes the nominee, then Biden is unlikely to win. Every Democrat already knows that. So, it's either pray for Trump or go thru the motions straight to defeat. 

In short, I like Biden, but he's definitely not strong enough to practically assure re-election. So, Biden needs to do an LBJ, both for the good of the party and the country. He likely won't significantly improve his odds by monkeying with primaries and caucuses. As I said before, these proposed changes are an admission of Biden's weakness as a candidate. Only fools would go into a general election with such a vulnerable candidate. Shades of McGovern, or Dukakis, all over again...