NATO: Article 5 Needs To Be Invoked Now.

I understood the argument previously made on multiple occasions as to why NATO could not and would not invoke Article 5 to defend Ukraine, a NATO strategic enhanced opportunities partner. NATO also refused to begin the membership process, as doing so would likely widen a regional war into a full-blown war affecting most of Europe.

That was then and this is now. I absolutely disagreed with both those arguments and felt Ukraine's membership should have been put on the fast track, even before the war broke out and definitely following the Russian invasion. 

Unfortunately, even today, NATO can't see the forest for the trees: remember the strongman called Putin? The guy who specializes in poisons and flying oligarchs? Well, I was of the view that Putin's grip on power was never as all-encompassing as most intelligence agencies believed. I suspected that the real politik mentality was far more WWI based than WWII, but that is pure speculation on my part. That's what the gut told me.

But now, circumstances have drastically changed post Wagner and Prigozhin. Seize the moment. By all accounts, both foreign and domestic, Putin is demonstrably weaker and his total grip on power is no longer almost assured. The other problem Putin has is the search for traitors: you know, high-ranking military leaders who were at least sympathetic to Prigozhin, if not low-key allies. Putin has to ask himself how many traitors are in his midst. My guess is far more than he, the GRU and the FSB can weed out. So, Putin could be on borrowed time politically, not to mention related to his current health status.

I wouldn't want to be in Putin's shoes going forward. The road ahead isn't clear and is fraught with both national security and personal landmines. It's been clear for quite some time that Putin is not sure who he can trust 100%. Given the Wagner rebellion, that interrogatory can only be far more substantial now. In short, personal peace of mind has now definitely gone by the wayside.

But back to Article 5: if Ukraine's membership was finally fast-tracked, Putin would suddenly find himself with only two choices: continue the war against all of NATO or begin demonstrable troop withdrawals to limit or preferably end the occupation of Ukrainian territory, actual or previously held. Given the weakened state of Russian forces in theatre, it would be highly advisable for Putin to choose option 2. But NATO sees none of that re: a forced retreat by Russian forces. Some argue that Putin, personally, simply can't go there because he fears an eventual or likely prosecution in The Hague. An interesting argument, but IMHO not sufficiently substantive to deter Putin from ending this war.

Putin knows very well that if it becomes an all-in NATO war, Russia has no chance of winning, period. So, once again, NATO is snatching potential defeat from the jaws of eventual victory. A case in point: just look at F-16s, the link below pretty much says it all.

Ukraine Shouldn’t Count On the F-16 Before 2025: Are There Any Alternatives | Defense Express (defence-ua.com)