Gaza: The Palestinian State Off Ramp Will Happen But Not Peace In Gaza.

Macron and other proponents have it ass-backwards. They argue that recognizing a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly will lead to a ceasefire and the return of Israeli and other hostages. Wrong. Trump agrees with this except for the Palestinian state part, but everyone is full of shit. 

There won't and can't be a permanent ceasefire in Gaza because that would mean returning all hostages to Israel, and the Hamas terrorists can't lose their life preserver. They need to keep some hostages forever, or until they die, otherwise Netanyahu goes full-bore against Hamas to kill every single Hamas fighter and then run the organization into the ground. Hamas knows this only too well, so a genuine, comprehensive ceasefire will never happen. Bibi can kill every Hamas member, but you can't kill an idea, however loathsome it is. Hamas will eventually reconstitute and regroup under new leadership and with scores of new young fighters. So, so much for that, Netanyahu.

My objection to a Palestinian state is one of timing. What kind of message does this send to the families of twelve hundred dead Israelis and other Jews? It's simply monstrous to go ahead with statehood now. However, any intellectually honest person knows that one day a Palestinian state will become inevitable. But, its territory has to be based solely on the West Bank. 

So, like it or not, and definitely, Netanyahu is raging, the domino theory will make it happen. It's kind of ironic that the same thing resulted in Western governments recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, after Trump got the ball rolling. 

France will go first, followed by the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada. It's nuts in the current geopolitical context, but hey, what can I say?

Free Trade: Trump's Bullshit Is Going Full Tilt.

Now, Trump is playing bad cop himself, saying there probably won't be a trade deal with Canada. English translation: he expects Carney to cave 100%. Carney won't do that, so in the end, it will be no deal, which in reality is the last thing that Trump really wants. Good going, moron. Par for the course, Trump.

Carney Ain't All Bad.

He's sort of like Harper, a guy who listened only rarely to what I proposed. But I did get three out of Harper: automobile bailouts, then ministers of state and changes to the national war memorial. Carney, so far, only one: the Council of the Federation. I've been advocating for this for ages, arguing that it should be at least one annual meeting with the Prime Minister. Genius Trudeau, of course, or should I say Telford, knew better than I did. Right.

Politicians Who Did Not Block Our Individual Free Speech Rights.

Fortunately, for Canadians, the partial list is long:

Clark

Chrétien

Martin

Harper

Trudeau

Scheer

O'Toole

Carney

2025: Your Natural Resources Stock Portfolio.

I'm twenty-five percent beta and the rest alpha. But as Rick would say, don't confuse a bull market with brains and a self-induced delusional stock-picking genius. My TFSA is now at +126%, having enjoyed at least on paper two previous gains of +500%, in 2018 and 2020. Guess who did not sell both times. LOL.

Meanwhile, the RRSP is the clear laggard: still at -12%, having previously risen to +47% in both 2018 and 2020. The Cash Account is currently at a modest +7%, while it gained +20% in 2016, +29% the next year, +82% in 2021.

So, the moral of this story is to start out with the best of the best producers and royalty/streaming companies to build your initial nest egg. Then go with people who are serial money makers over multiple decades and countries. Next, move down the quality trail and buy the highest quality intermediates, developers and explorers that you can find. If you do the work, you can't help but be well rewarded. As an example, I sat on Shamaran Petroleum, a Lundin vehicle, for five years before it finally started to move. I'm up in two accounts +294% and +142% respectively. Still holding every single share.

Trump: Doing Everything He Can To Send Bolsonaro To Jail.

The American moron is back, cancelling visas for Brazilian Supreme Court members and demanding that Bolsonaro's trial be halted. What an idiot. As Lula pointed out, the judicial system is independent of the government. He stated that the Executive would not interfere in Bolsonaro's trial.

Meanwhile, federal police raided Bolsonaro's home and party offices, claiming he was obstructing justice and planning to flee the country. Bolsonaro vehemently denies this, arguing that the trial is nothing more than a sham and an attempt to permanently bar him from holding political office. 

Ironically, Trump's continued intervention in Brazilian politics and its legal system is hurting Bolsonaro more than helping him. It has not gone unnoticed that the American president is fighting more vigorously for Bolsonaro than the former president himself.

It is no surprise that, given this reality, the federal police have concluded that Bolsonaro poses a flight risk, likely to the United States, where he would receive, at the very least, refuge, if not asylum. That is why Bolsonaro now wears an electronic ankle cuff.

If Trump had any sense, he would leave Bolsonaro's defence to his lawyers. He is only harming Bolsonaro's case with his constant interference in Brazilian judicial affairs. Bolsonaro needs to tell Trump to stay out of it. If only that were possible. With an ally like Trump, who needs sworn enemies...

Trump: Fazendo tudo o que pode para mandar Bolsonaro para a prisão.

O idiota americano está de volta, cancelando vistos para membros do Supremo Tribunal Federal e exigindo que o julgamento de Bolsonaro seja encerrado. Que idiota. Como Lula apontou, o sistema judicial é independente do governo. Ele afirmou que o Executivo não interferiria no julgamento de Bolsonaro.

Enquanto isso, a polícia federal invadiu a casa e os escritórios do partido de Bolsonaro, alegando que ele estava obstruindo a justiça e planejando fugir do país. Bolsonaro nega veementemente, argumentando que o julgamento não passa de uma farsa e uma tentativa de impedi-lo permanentemente de exercer cargos políticos.

Ironicamente, a intervenção contínua de Trump na política brasileira e em seu sistema jurídico está prejudicando Bolsonaro mais do que ajudando-o. Não passou despercebido que o presidente americano está lutando mais vigorosamente por Bolsonaro do que o próprio ex-presidente.

Não é surpresa que, diante dessa realidade, a polícia federal tenha concluído que Bolsonaro representa um risco de fuga, provavelmente para os Estados Unidos, onde receberia, no mínimo, refúgio, se não asilo. É por isso que Bolsonaro agora usa uma tornozeleira eletrônica.

Se Trump tivesse bom senso, deixaria a defesa de Bolsonaro a cargo de seus advogados. Ele só está prejudicando o caso de Bolsonaro com sua constante interferência nos assuntos judiciais brasileiros. Bolsonaro precisa dizer a Trump para ficar fora disso. Se ao menos isso fosse possível. Com um aliado como Trump, quem precisa de inimigos jurados...