If You Only Read One Of My Posts On This Blog Read This One.

Well, surprise, surprise, the national polls were largely OK in 2016 but regional polls in the battleground states were way off: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump made huge inroads that won him the presidency.

Move forward to 2020: the national polls overrepresented Biden's support level while other polls were off in swing states: Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and also in Republican-leaning states, Montana, Indiana and Missouri.

So, to some extent, pollsters will get it wrong this time too. My money is on an overrepresentation of Trump support in battleground states meaning Trump will do less well, and likely much less well, in crucial states than projected. Translation: that will cost him the presidency.  

Rutte Confirms Ukraine Will Join NATO.

It's about time. I've been arguing for this since February 2022. Thank God the Russians are so inept otherwise, Putin would have overrun all of Ukraine by now. 

NATO is still leading from behind. Set a fucking date and make it happen now.

They're Voting In Advanced Polls Like Mad Because...

They're totally sick of Trump and his face. They want to get rid of Trump for good politically. End of story. That's why the Harris landslide is well on its way.

Harris Shows Her Metal On Fox.

Harris sure gave as good as she got. She didn't back down one inch. This is great news for her campaign. Independents will love it. One more step on her way to an election victory. 

Kalshi Betting.

Trump: 56%

Harris: 44%

Electoral College.

Harris: 226

Trump: 219

Needed to win: 270

Liberal MP Revolt.

Can you say Sean Casey in addition to Wayne Long? Expect more people to say publicly that they back this campaign to oust Trudeau. It's the drip, drip, drip theory in action which means eventually that Trudeau will be G-O-N-E.

It's no longer IF. It's now a matter of when.