Trump Thinks He Can Control Ukraine.

Remember how Trump famously said that he could end the Ukranian war in twenty-four hours? Absolute nonsense but that's classic Trump. He goes on and on about his so-called great relationship with Putin and suggests he could easily bring Zelenskyy to heel. Right.

I've got news for him. Ukrainians will fight for every inch of their soil whether Trump enthusiastically backs them or not. The big knock on Putin is if he was capable of winning the war, he would have done so by now. Two and a half years later and the Russians are no closer to a military victory. In fact, it's more or less a stalemate on the ground. Russia has shown itself to be a second-rate military power that does not have the demonstrable leadership required to win militarily. In fact, the upper levels of the officer corps have shown themselves to be grossly incompetent while the ranks are being decimated on the battlefield at an ever-alarming rate. In short, Putin's desperation forced him to accept North Korean troops, some of whom immediately defected upon arrival in theatre. 

Putin's so-called best efforts have only resulted in a military stalemate reminiscent of the trench warfare in WWI. Putin may think that with Trump's return he can provide for that. He may expect Trump to turn a blind eye to further military escalation in Ukraine or potential invasion of NATO territory. No one sees Putin winning under a WWIII scenario but there is plenty of consternation and trepidation in countries such as Poland, Romania and the Baltics. Putin is viewed, at best, as potentially irrational and no one can predict what might happen going forward. 

Meanwhile, Biden has approved ATACMS use against Russian targets in the country. Will Trump actually have the resolve to reverse this decision or the recent arrival of F16s in Ukraine? Time will tell but one thing is certain: should Russia attack NATO, Trump will have no choice but to come to Europe's rescue. In short, you can fight Russians by default on European soil or later on American territory, if it comes to that. Sadly, the fate of the free world rests more with Putin than with Trump. 

KinsellaCast 336.

Warren,

- Parrish and Trudeau must have the same IQ score.

-Mraz says they're sock puppets. But does it make any difference if qualified or unqualified candidates rule the roost because in the final analysis, the moron Trump gets to decide anything that is substantive and even God can't get this asshole to do the right thing on most issues.

-I come at Ukraine differently: if American aid is so crucial and inadequate to this point, why hasn't Putin managed to take Ukraine in two and a half years? That speaks volumes about Russia's actual military capacity and level of professional soldiering. FFS, they need North Koreans to advance their military aims in Ukraine and even that is not a given. So, I remain cautiously optimistic even if Trump tries to end that war to Russia's advantage. 

-Look into Musk's eyes and then you'll be all-knowing about who Musk is.

-Trump: Frum summed it up nicely.

-At least Warren can draw comfort from the fact that his puppy has far more active brain cells than the President-elect of the United States.

-And then there's that unanswered question: are Joey and Roxy jealous?

-The Nutcase Fest that is sometimes TO city council.

-I wish Santa would convince Trudeau to go away with him in his sleigh. 

-Canada Post: only 22%? I guess inflation is higher than we've been led to believe... 

Blackburn: Can He Win?

Following the Liberal convention in Lévis, two waves emerged on the ground: the first revealing that Rodriguez was ahead in the leadership race. But there was also a second: that of followers of the reputed temple of a mysterious ghostly figure that was ever present at the convention. In a word: Blackburn.

Blackburn seems intent on returning to the political scene after his cancer treatments, and his network already appears to be active. And his organization is probably the most impressive of all the leadership candidates. Behind the scenes, there is talk of a possible, but seemingly certain candidacy. It appears that several former ministers and MNAs are ready to join his team. They are waiting for him to formally announce his candidacy. That's it.

The advent of a Blackburn candidacy would be the worst-case scenario for Rodriguez, among others. Coincidentally, the other declared candidates are hammering Pablo on the issue of public finances and his lack of objections. They also criticize his links in Ottawa, given that Rodriguez still sits as an MP. In some party circles, it's hard to understand why Pablo did not immediately sever his ties with Trudeau as soon as his candidacy was announced.

And the contrast between Rodriguez and Blackburn, who heads the CPQ, is striking. The Liberals' message seems to be focused on the economy and public finances, which is not necessarily to Rodriguez's advantage.

Indeed, there is a certain expectation among members that a candidate will emerge who will not necessarily be very spontaneous. The Liberals always have a game plan, even under an interim leader. It's a bit like the arrival of Bourassa in the 70s. Blackburn's future candidacy is not a foregone conclusion, but it seems almost certain.

In short, we're expecting an earthquake in the QLP and it's called Blackburn. It won't be good news for Pablo in particular. To sum up, I'll leave the last word to Abdelfadel:

[TRANSLATION] "He [Blackburn] eventually left the PLQ, but the PLQ never left him, and neither did the people he met there."

Blackburn : peut-il gagner ?

À la suite du congrès des membres libéraux à Lévis, il y a eu deux vagues sur le terrain : la première montrant que Rodriguez était en avance dans la course à la chefferie. Mais il y en avait aussi une deuxième : celle des adeptes du temple réputé d'une mystérieuse figure fantomatique omniprésente au congrès. En un mot : Blackburn.

Ce dernier semble vouloir revenir sur la scène politique après ses traitements contre le cancer et son réseau semble déjà actif. Et son organisation est peut-être la plus impressionnante de tous les candidats au leadership. En coulisses, on parle d'une candidature possible, mais plutôt certaine. Il semble que plusieurs anciens ministres et députés soient prêts à rejoindre son équipe. Ils attendent qu'il annonce sa candidature. Tout simplement.

L'avènement d'une candidature Blackburn serait le pire des scénarios pour Rodriguez, entre autres. Comme par hasard, les autres candidats déclarés martèlent Pablo sur la question des finances publiques et son manque d'objections. Ils critiquent également ses liens avec Ottawa, alors que Rodriguez siège toujours comme député. Dans certains cercles du parti, on ne comprend pas pourquoi Pablo n'a pas immédiatement rompu ses liens avec Trudeau dès l'annonce de sa candidature.

Le contraste entre Rodriguez et Blackburn, qui dirige le CPQ, est frappant. Le message des libéraux semble être axé sur l'économie et les finances publiques, ce qui n'est pas nécessairement à l'avantage de Rodriguez.

En effet, les membres s'attendent à voir émerger un candidat qui ne sera pas nécessairement très spontané. Les libéraux ont toujours un plan de match, même sous un chef intérimaire. C'est un peu comme l'arrivée de Bourassa dans les années 70. La future candidature de Blackburn n'est pas gagnée d'avance, mais elle semble presque certaine.

Bref, on s'attend à un tremblement de terre au PLQ et il s'appelle Blackburn. Ce ne sera pas une bonne nouvelle pour Pablo en particulier. En résumé, je laisse le mot de la fin à Abdelfadel :

"Il [Blackburn] a fini par quitter le PLQ, mais le PLQ ne l'a jamais quitté, pas plus que les gens qu'il y a rencontrés".

Next Federal Election: Warren Is On Target!

Warren views a Trump return to the presidency as transformative for our political matrix and I've come to agree with him. Simply put, the more Trump goes batshit crazy and morphs into an authoritarian ideologue, the more Trudeau will enjoy serial political orgasms. 

As Kinsella predicted, our next election will be all about the deranged American president and his authoritarian imposition on American democracy. He's not even in office yet and most of his cabinet nominees are either unqualified or unworthy. The more Trump goes off the right-wing deep end, the more that helps the Liberals in their quest to weaken and reverse the Conservative two-year lead in the polls.

That puts Pierre in a difficult place: to maintain and perhaps increase the CPC polling lead, he has to stick to centre-right issues and not embrace anything that Trump has proposed or is doing. If Poilièvre embraces one inch of Trump's policy, it will be the beginning of the end for the CPC. As of now, Warren thinks Liberals can make gains but not reverse the Conservative lead. I'm not so sure. Trudeau is a big zero as prime minister and Liberal leader but he's both progressive and centrist -- an exact reflection of a plurality of Canadian DNA. So, expect him to lie and distort CPC positions with relish in the coming campaign. The more Trump goes whacko, the better the chances are for some kind of a Liberal comeback. This isn't 2016 or the 2016 Trump. This dipshit is far worse now than he ever was before. 

In essence, if Pierre has nothing to do with Trump's policies, the CPC should be able to maintain its lead all the way to the next election. But if Poilièvre comes off as sympathetic to Trump, or his despicable agenda, then Trudeau will be right there to take maximum advantage of it. 

That's why Trudeau is staying. He expects an American DemonSeedTM agenda coming down the pike and in his mind, that will be enough to reverse the current polling trend and return Trudeau and his party to power in the next election. 

Trump And His High Quality Cabinet Scumbags.

No wonder dipshit wants and will later order recess appointments. Trump knows he can't get most of these kooks or scumbags fifty Senate votes. I think enough of the Republicans actually have the balls to defy this nutcase of a future president. I'm OK with Rubio but little else. 

So, at least one and probably more will be voted down in committee, or later on the Senate floor. POS is likely to drop dead long before his four-year term ends. Trump separation anxiety may not be fatal after all. Watch Collins and others.

I royally blew this election prediction but here's a new one: Wiles will be so disgusted with the Trump White House that she'll likely be gone within three to six months after taking the job as Chief of Staff. TrumpCrazyTownTM is well on its way! 

Retailers Gouge Consumers?

Well, Yes and NO. If we're talking groceries, the answer is largely No. The profit margins in food are infinitesimally small so they tend not to jack up prices. Instead, they rely on their suppliers, who more often than not use ShrinkInflationTM to increase their profit. I've seen it with food, snacks, soap bars, etc.