Sunday 26 March 2023

TBTF. Right.

Ask yourselves what's the next shoe to drop that could potentially take down a Too Big To Fail Bank. For my money, it's Commercial Real Estate. Some companies have already stopped paying their leases or abandoned the premises. 

That could be the beginning of a cascading effect and it comes on the heels of a similar phenomenon in Residential Real Estate.

Add to that the lack of confidence in the entire banking sector that seems to be growing and you have quite a recipe for a banking catastrophe.

Money is being pumped into the system by Treasury, The Federal Reserve and the largest banks themselves and still no end in sight for this banking crisis. 

Meanwhile, traditional instruments seen as safe are taking a hit: Treasuries are now less attractive along with corporate bonds. Bitcoin and Crypto are also viewed as somewhat suspect while Gold is the great unknown what with only one-half of one percent invested in it. 

So...what's the next big thing where money can flow as we head into a likely recession? Certainly not stocks.

I guess that means we can now kiss off disinflation, as inflation fails to sufficiently moderate, even after interest rate hikes. Some say, hyperinflation is in the cards next. I doubt that the dollar can be killed off that easily. I'm more a stagflation type of guy.

There also seems to be some worry about Wells Fargo and Bank of America but is that founded? Who knows. But just look at human psychology -- a clearly rattled Yellin and Powell -- tells you all you need to know about what could potentially come next.

It's like the blind leading the blind, with no one having a clear idea of what to do next. It's improvisation at its worse. Comforting thought...the plan is no plan.

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