Trump, Trump, Trump, Again.

As most of you already know, I think of Trump as a POS, even on his best day. That will never, ever, change, but hey, unlike our Prime Minister, he actually isn't a total idiot: the guy is smart enough never to touch entitlements: Trump did not and will never go anywhere near Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. That's called political smarts. Haley and others are playing with fire, even though it takes guts to talk about entitlements, the retirement age and the rest of it. Another place where Trump is dead-on is when he labelled DeSantis DeSanctimonious. Bingo! Sanctimoniousness goes down great with the red-meat crowd in the party, but with crucial Independents, not so much.

Remember that the biggest lie in American politics is that this is a 50-50 country. Not a chance. Independents are by far the biggest political group, followed by Democrats, with Republicans bringing up the rear. Trump won because he had Independents with him. He lost because Independents went with Biden last time. Trump has learned his lesson. He knows now that Independents are incredibly turned off by preachy sanctimony. 

But this is the Republican Party we're talking about. Trump is beyond thrilled that he likely will be charged in Manhattan. He's calling for protests, you know, the same old MAGA-type garbage. He actually thinks that lightning will strike again in the same place, but it won't, not after January 6th, when Trump basically lost the country. But put it in Republican-speak, that's the way to go for Trump. He needs something big to fight off DeSantis. Let's get real here. DeSantis is going up in the polls, not Trump. So, Trump has cast himself in the role of Jesus Christ. He thinks it will work, but will it? Kind of depends on if your average Republican is big-picture or not. If not, it'll work great and DeSantis is already history, even before announcing. But if Republicans are primarily big-picture thinkers, they will want to go with DeSantis to broaden support in the general. That's the right strategy for '24. Don't get me wrong, DeSantis IS a sanctimonious hypocrite and asshole, but he's the one who can run the table with Independents. For Biden to lose and Republicans to win the presidency, they NEED to run DeSantis. Take Biden out of the mix and Republicans likely lose, unless Harris is the nominee. She has already been sent to Democratic political Siberia by a plurality of potential voters. Life, in and out of politics, just ain't fair. So, Harris is already finished. 

But back to Trump: if most Republicans want to stick with MAGA, which they probably don't, at least to some pollsters, then Trump's strategy is bound to fail. But if in their heart of hearts, they are still pro-MAGA, then Trump can't lose the nomination to DeSantis. Period. This is the scenario I see playing out. Trump gets the nomination, especially if he's indicted, and then gets blown away politically in the general. Even Biden can beat Trump, but Biden can't beat anyone else, not with this economy and this inflation. 

Now, if I was going to nail Trump to the cross with indictments, there's no way that I would lead with this type of small-potatoes. Most people, in similar circumstances, never get charged. It's a misdemeanour, nothing more. So...it's an incredibly stupid hill for a Democratic Manhattan DA to die on. Can they even get a conviction? I have serious doubts. The last thing most people want, even on grand juries, is to see Trump turned into a martyr. They don't want to go back to the hornets' nest. They don't want to see another January 6th. Tying it all up with a bow means for yours truly that Trump will likely be acquitted on any charges. I think Trump already realizes that and that's why he's playing it up as much as he can because ultimately, it will be to his political benefit.

This isn't about heads, it's all about hearts. How the party collective actually feels will determine the result, both for the Republican nominee and in the general election.