Biden Is Dreaming.

Israel has agreed to the Hamas-inspired ceasefire. But hey, don't expect an end to the war anytime soon. For Netanyahu to remain in office, the IDF has to clear out all of Gaza and that's precisely what they'll do, not so much for Israel or Israelis but pretty much only for Bibi and his re-election efforts. 

Netanyahu calls the shots, not Gallant or anyone else. And the IDF has no choice but to be the organ grinder's monkey. Doubt they are enjoying it, both in Gaza and at home. 

Biden is stuck still playing checkers while Netanyahu continues to outclass all rivals and opponents on the chess board. God help Israel.

Trump: Convicted Felon. No Kidding.

Now, it depends in part on whether fifteen percent of MAGA and other Republicans will really not vote for a convicted felon. Then Independents, or at least a plurality or majority of them, have to vote Democratic for Biden to win. 

Watch the polling averages first before putting too much stock in individual polls. They'll likely start to move in Biden's direction and if that's consistent, Biden definitely wins the popular vote again and probably the Electoral College if the split is just right.  

So Biden has the wind in his sails as of right now, but it ain't a done deal just yet. We'll probably start to see the outlines of a true picture sometime in the fall. Not before.

入侵台灣？ 理論上是的，但實際上唔係。

中國善於虛張聲勢，越嚟越肯透過台灣被包圍或封鎖嘅戰爭遊戲嚟支持啲。 它看起來令人印象深刻和可怕，但唔好將你嘅最後一美元押喺入侵上。 點解? 坦率地說，习近平可能希望睇到台灣屈服於佢哋不可避免的命運。 呢個叛逆嘅省份將被納入中華人民共咊囯。 但台灣唔打算同意，因此該地區嘅恐嚇和緊張局勢與日俱增。 美國對援助台灣並不熱心，但外交和國防政策係一件奇怪的事情。 問題是，如果北京喺冇任何軍事後果嘅情況下佔領台灣，佢哋接下來會在該地區做乜嘢？ 制裁根本唔會影響內地政策。

預計以英文為主嘅民主國家唔會允許美國獨自承擔軍事負擔。 同樣，習可能已經知道這一點。 將導致中國失去對局勢的控制，中國可能無法發揮其最終的軍事優勢。

睇下普京喺烏克蘭。 佢控制或緩衝烏克蘭領土，但而家佢靜雞雞尋求和平緊。 係中國軍事冒險主義喺東亞可能產生嘅後果嘅現實證明。 你可以把台灣拖進中華人民共咊囯，但你唔可以屈佢哋喝酒。 习近平可能對沖佢最有希望嘅軍事賭注嘅另一個原因係，大多數（如果唔係全部嘅話）職業從未畀侵略者帶來積極嘅結果。 習都知道這一點。

Taiwan Invasion? Well Theoretically Yes But Practically No.

The PRC is great at bluff and bluster and is increasingly prepared to back it up with war games where Taiwan has either been encircled or blockaded. Looks great and is intimidating, but don't ever bet your last dollar on invasion. Why? Frankly, there's probably nothing Xi Jinping would like more than to see the Taiwanese bow to the inevitable, where the renegade province would be integrated into the PRC. But Taiwan isn't going for that, hence the increasing intimidation and tension in the region.

Realistically, could China take Taiwan militarily in 2024? The odds are probably better than 50-50 now, but Xi is no fool. It's one thing to take the island. It's quite another to hold it. That's the PRC's Achilles' heel, and everyone knows it. 

The United States would have no choice but to come to Taiwan's aid.  A Major Non-NATO Ally. And Beijing is perfectly aware of that. There is no great fervour to come to Taiwan's assistance, but diplomacy and defence policy are a strange thing. It's sort of what will Beijing do next in the region if they take Taiwan and there are no military consequences? Sanctions simply can't do that job. 

One would expect that the major English-speaking democracies would not let the United States bear the military burden alone. Again, something that Xi likely already knows. That would lead to out-of-control time for the PRC and would not necessarily work to its ultimate military advantage.

Look to Putin in Ukraine, who holds or buffers Ukrainian territory and yet is now quietly suing for peace. It's a realistic demonstration of what could be in store for China were they to engage in military adventurism in East Asia. You can drag Taiwan into the PRC, but you can't make them drink. One more reason for Xi to hedge his most promising military bets, as most if not all occupations never end well for the aggressor. Xi also knows that.

 

台湾入侵？ 理论上是，但实际上不是。

中国善于虚张声势，越来越愿意通过台湾被包围或封锁的战争游戏来支持这一点。 它看起来令人印象深刻和可怕，但不要把你的最后一美元押在入侵上。为啥?坦率地说，习近平可能希望看到台湾屈服于他们不可避免的命运。 这个叛逆的省份将被纳入中华人民共和国。但台湾不打算同意，因此该地区的恐吓和紧张局势与日俱增。美国对援助台湾并不热心，但外交和国防政策是一件奇怪的事情。问题是，如果北京在没有任何军事后果的情况下占领台湾，他们接下来会在该地区做什么？制裁根本不会影响内地政策。

人們可以預料到，主要的英語民主國家不會讓美國獨自承擔軍事負擔。同樣，習可能已經知道的事情。這將導致中國的時間失控，並不一定能為其帶來最終的軍事優勢。

看看普京在乌克兰。 他控制或缓冲乌克兰领土，但现在他正在悄悄地寻求和平。这是中国军事冒险主义在东亚可能产生的后果的现实证明。你可以把台湾拖进中华人民共和国，但你不能强迫他们喝酒。习近平可能对冲他最有希望的军事赌注的另一个原因是，大多数（如果不是全部的话）职业从未给侵略者带来积极的结果。习也知道这一点。

The Pierre Poilièvre Twins: Which One Likely Will Become Prime Minister?

Pierre is trying to be too cute by half: No, there's no capital gains hike because there's no legislation before the House. So why should he take a position on it or even comment? Sorry Pierre, but that just doesn't cut the mustard with voters, especially those trying to build individual wealth to deal with the crushing cost of living obligations in this inflationary environment where costs and prices do nothing but go up consecutively.

You see, I'm confused. The last time I checked, Conservatives generally were for lower taxes -- that Pierre never met a tax he liked. He's ready to cut them across the board: carbon, energy, alcohol taxes, you name it. He's stimulative to the private sector and bent on an improving economy.

But then there's the other Pierre, his twin. This guy's head of the CPC cop-out squad. No legislation, so nada. As if that makes any credible difference: a genuinely principled conservative will comment on the evils of hell and purgatory, even though neither has been proven in reality. So, this Pierre is playing the Ottawa shuffle. He won't take a personal or party position, but he'll grab the money when it comes. NOT GOOD ENOUGH!

It's the responsibility of the CPC to fight these capital-gains tax increases tooth and nail in the House and everywhere. Period.

Everyone knows Freeland will bring in a stand-alone bill before the House rises for the summer. This tax increase should be an election issue, along with most other tax increases. The first Pierre would be pounding the table against it and voting accordingly. People get ahead in life financially by first saving up and then investing. They build personal wealth thanks to judicious investment decisions and the heavenly magic of compounding. Same thing for small businesses. They create most jobs and often have money left over to invest to help the business prosper. We certainly did that with our company. 

In short, a government has no business getting its irresponsible hands on 66% of anything. Working Canadians, small business owners and investors already know that. But apparently, one of the Pierres doesn't. Silence tends to imply consent. He'll gladly grab the capital gains cash windfall once we form a government. He's got twenty billion reasons. It's up to you, John and Jane Public to get this Poilièvre to change his mind. We aren't Corporate Canada. We're struggling amateur investors and small businesses. 

"Common sense Conservatives will vote against Justin Trudeau's inflationary budget," spokesman Sebastian Skamski said in a statement to The Canadian Press.

Yeah, but maybe not all the bills. A Bait-and-switch approach usually isn't a hallmark of the Conservative Party of Canada. At least one Pierre agrees with that.

سقوط هلیکوپتر ایرانی

آیا رئیس جمهور و امیرعبداللهیان وزیر امور خارجه مرده اند؟ تا این لحظه خبری از نجات نیست. در محل سقوط شب است، بنابراین هر چه بیشتر بدون خبری بمانیم، احتمال اینکه هر دوی آنها همراه با سایرین در هلیکوپتر زنده و احتمالاً مجروح شده باشند، کمتر می شود.

زمان داستان را نشان خواهد داد. اگر ظرف چند ساعت خبری دریافت نکنیم، احتمالاً همه آنها مرده اند. و اگر چنین است، مواضع رئیس جمهور جدید در ارتباط با رهبر معظم انقلاب خامنه ای چگونه خواهد بود؟ آیا سیاست های آنها در مورد فلسطینی ها، حزب الله و حماس تا حدودی تغییر خواهد کرد؟ احتمالا نه.

Iranian Helicopter Crash.

Are President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian dead? So far, no rescue news. It's nighttime at the crash site, so the longer we go without news, the slimmer the odds that both of them along with the others on the helicopter can be found alive and possibly injured.

Time will tell the tale. If we don't get news within hours, they all are likely dead. And if that's the case, what will the new incoming president's positions be, in conjunction with the Supreme Leader Khamenei? Will their policies change to any extent regarding the Palestinians, Hezbollah and Hamas? Probably not.

Taylor Greene: A Perfect MAGA Representation.

You know, I wish Trump would choose Taylor Greene as his VEEP. After all, she's a perfect mini-representation of Trump! It's almost as if they were blood-related.

Anyway, that cat fight in the House Oversight Committee covered no one with glory. That's for sure. But hey, it's not like AOC or Crockett started it. But in the final analysis, TG wanted them to take the bait, and they did. Came off as nothing more than bitchy. It made all of them look stupid and petty.

Crockett says TG is a racist, but that charge gets diminished by the Crockett-inspired T-shirt. That was also a mistake if you're trying to claim and hold the high ground. 

At least they didn't come off as clueless and rudderless: that award goes to Comer, who seemingly needed to learn to quickly reign all of them in. 

What a disgrace...

Is Trudeau Still Going?

I'm torn. Like Warren said, all the signs are there, so the head logically expects Trudeau to go, eventually. But the gut still has its doubts. Instead of growing weaker, as in Kinsella's case, my feeling is growing stronger with each passing day that he plans to stick around. Sure, they're telegraphing a future run for all to see by LeBlanc, but will Dominic really rock the boat or push for a departure date? I don't think so. Wonder what his other best friend thinks. You know, Butts. (Mulcair also thinks Trudeau is leaving.)

To my surprise, the PM is up on the Palestinian file. He's engaged and well briefed, something we don't often see from him. He's committed to policy and defending this government. Again, does this still sound like a guy planning on leaving? And then there's the Poilièvre thing: does Trudeau still believe that he can take Pierre in an election campaign? If he does, why would he leave?

Mind you, Warren is a true politico and has all the interesting government and party contacts. Moi, not at all. But hey, don't strictly rule it in that it's an absolute cinch that Trudeau is going. Stranger things have already happened in politics.

Rex Murphy, R.I.P.

This is a great loss for journalism and public discourse. Rex was one of the greats, as he amply demonstrated on Cross Country Checkup. Once he left the CBC, he became known for his conservative positions. One can't help but wonder if he was a conservative all the time, or only came to embrace Canadian conservatism in his later years.

I don't mind his conservative bent in later life, but I do feel that journalists have a special obligation to analyze political and other events across the spectrum of ideas. You can be a conservative or liberal or even a social democrat in private, but as a journalist or broadcaster, you need to be able to move beyond your own preconceived notions and outright opinions. I would have liked to see Murphy do a bit more of that in later life. 

But again, none of that takes away from the fact that Rex was a great journalist and commentator. He will be sadly missed by so many, and journalism is undoubtedly diminished by his departure. My condolences to his family, colleagues and friends. 

Trump Hush Money Trial: Can You Say Weisselberg?

Hum. Does Merchan want to hear from Weisselberg? Now, that's the rub for Trump and his attorneys. The prosecution alleges that keep-quiet payments have already been planned for Weisselberg, as long as he stays silent.

Be that as it may, if Weisselberg is brought in to testify, it likely would not be a good day for the defence. He would probably take the 5th, and that wouldn't help the defence much, at least as far as perception is concerned. 

I still think this case is headed to a hung jury: the pretzeling of expired statute of limitation misdemeanours into felony counts is a legal stretch, although seemingly it's often used by prosecutors, sometimes successfully.

This thing smells as if a plant has already been placed on the jury. Someone who plans on stonewalling during jury deliberations. I see Weisselberg's involvement as giving a boost to any plans to deadlock the jury. And then there's the other thing: Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee and a former president. I just don't see how that passes conviction muster. It's like impeachment, a purely political process. You can impeach all you want and have -- Trump was impeached twice -- but you don't dare convict at trial for fear of sparking a civil war. So, for all of those reasons, I don't expect a conviction.