Trump: Convicted Felon. No Kidding.

Now, it depends in part on whether fifteen percent of MAGA and other Republicans will really not vote for a convicted felon. Then Independents, or at least a plurality or majority of them, have to vote Democratic for Biden to win. 

Watch the polling averages first before putting too much stock in individual polls. They'll likely start to move in Biden's direction and if that's consistent, Biden definitely wins the popular vote again and probably the Electoral College if the split is just right.  

So Biden has the wind in his sails as of right now, but it ain't a done deal just yet. We'll probably start to see the outlines of a true picture sometime in the fall. Not before.