Pierre Won't Pivot...

Nothing quite like playing right into the hands of the Ontario PCs. They've got to be happier than a pig in shit. Once we lose, they will move heaven and earth to replace Pierre as leader with...wait for it, you know who!

Why Are Ford And The Ontario PCs Not Helping Pierre In This Campaign?

Apparently, to ask the question is to answer it. People need to sear that into their memory. And why it's happening now.

For Antonio: In Percentage.

Abrasilver: 73

BTW: 11

Bannerman: 593

Cerro: 158

Empress: 7

EMX: 10

Equinox: 18

Erdene: 52

Forsys: 12

G Mining: 518

Greenheart: 560

Hecla: 48

Integra: 56

Lavras: 74

Mako: 14

Maritime: 41

Metals Energy: 19

Orezone: 25

Osisko Metals: 51

Paladin: 15

Plata Latina: 31

Radisson: 59

Santacruz: 98

Stinger: 125

Thor: 91

Uranium Energy: 30

Vox: 38

West African: 837

...and plenty of losers too!

Here's How The CPC Wins.

As posted on WarrenKinsella.com:

All of the above are legitimate concerns and insightful points, but they’re inside baseball and can’t get serious traction. None of them are what we need to win. In short, Pierre has to attack Trump DIRECTLY far more forcefully and frequently when the next round of American tariffs comes on April 2nd. And far more importantly, to change the leadership dynamic in this race and remove it from Carney, Pierre has to pledge that an incoming CPC government will not only match Trump tariff for tarrif but will do what the Liberals refuse to do: make sure that all our reciprocal tariffs across the board are for double the percentage the American tariffs are. If Trump goes from 25 to 50, then a Conservative government goes from 50 to 100. That’s the only kind of strength that Trump understands and RESPECTS, and it’s the only way to get him to back down and prematurely abandon his tariffs.

I Told Pierre To Pledge To Double The Anti-Trump Tariffs.

So far, he's not listening. He's not much of a political strategist.

Is Abacus On To Something?

They have the Conservatives and Liberals tied at thirty-nine percent. If Abacus is correct, it means support for both parties is soft and fungible. The Liberals have to consolidate their support as the leading party. The Conservatives have more of a challenge: they must prove that they are the only change agent and that we can do a better job of getting Trump to eliminate tariffs against Canada as quickly as possible. Carney's approach is to play nice and achieve nothing of substance in tariff relief. This is where Pierre has an opportunity. He needs to talk tough but also come up with tradeoffs that Canada could agree to that would prompt Trump to remove the current tariffs or forego future ones on automobiles and other goods. Put another way, Pierre has an incredible challenge: to win in this fight, he has to be prepared to make substantive concessions to the Americans without going too far. What price will Canadians pay to get to a world without tariffs? If the CPC can figure that out, we could still win this election. However, making trade concessions will always be a double-edged sword for any party that agrees to Trump's demands. There's a thin line between making some concessions or going too far and coming off as a sell-out.

CPC: How Long Will It Take To Ditch Byrne? The Clock Is Ticking.

CPC support has been dropping ever since the Liberal leadership race got underway. Some will say it's because of Conservative policies, but that's incorrect. Pierre had the same policies when the CPC was twenty to twenty-five points ahead in the polls for almost two years. The same thing can be said about the leader: no one loves Pierre, but he is not despised either. People were willing to live with him as an indirectly elected prime minister. So, what changed?

The Liberals got a new leader who is a political neophyte who comes off as a privileged person who thinks that he and his background should not be accountable to the press or Canadians. Carney doesn't want us to know how rich he is or what all his elite connections did to benefit him personally over the years.

Canadians know nothing about this. They see a shiny new penny in the window and like it. However, Carney's repeated gaffes are starting to show that the Emperor has no retail politics skills or mastery of sound government practices. 

Again, why did the wheels come off the Conservative campaign? Simply put, the strategic depth in the CPC war room isn't up to the job. Byrne never should have headed the war room. Byrne is there by default because no one else wanted the job or to work with her in a campaign. Her war room is responsible for those disastrous red ads that deliberately distorted Carney's features to make him look devil-like. Byrne did nothing to pull those ads. Did she even have a role in conceiving them? And even worse, the leader let them air. Those ads are responsible more than anything else for tanking CPC numbers, and the continued decline in support flowed from there.

As for the campaign, Byrne must be replaced ASAP by a seasoned operative. Can they convince Teneycke to come over to stabilize a rapidly sinking ship? And will Ford give his blessing? But Teneycke can't do it alone. He will need to bring in an infusion of people.  Without restaffing, this election is already lost. Pierre's strategic abilities aren't up to retooling and rethinking this campaign. He's far too wedded to longstanding party policy and shows no natural inclination towards thinking out of the box. 

In short, drop Byrne now before it's too late. We have one last chance to turn things around. Better make the most of it.

ClunkyTM Leads In Most Polls Since March 15th.

The Liberals keep going up, while ClunkyTM's performance keeps going down. Pierre is doing better and better but we're hardly moving in the polls. Not good.

Angus Reid Is A Disaster For The CPC.

Liberals lead by eight points. Eight points!

So, the Conservative war room is clearly inadequate for the task at hand—winning a majority government. Now, they have two choices: listen to all of us at WarrenKinsella.com or ignore our advice as they've been doing until now. If they keep this up, the LyingAssCarneyLiberalsTM will get a comfortable majority on April 28th, plain and simple.

CR: I'm 1000% With Schumer.

Much of the Democratic Party, especially in the House, are clueless. Pelosi said when she made deals, she always got something in return. Maybe so. She poopooed Schumer and a dozen Democrats and Independents who voted to advance and adopt a CR that had passed the Republican House. Schumer says the Republicans had already signaled that they would not cut a deal while some Democrats claim that's bullshit. Either way, what type of concession could Schumer have got to serve as a fig leaf for voting for the CR? You tell me.

The point being, that a) as Carville put it so well, Democrats have to pick their battles -- and this one ain't it. Why? First off, as in almost all cases, the party that votes against a CR in the Senate gets to wear a government shutdown, no ifs, and's or buts. Schumer knew this only too well going in. 

Remember what happened to Gingrich in the bad old days? And then, b) there's the last Trump shutdown in 2018...well, it's no surprise to anyone. Guess who took the House after that shutdown? In short, the party that didn't cause it, namely, the Democrats.

So, Pelosi and the rest of them are wrong. Dead wrong. If you want to fight a battle in the Senate you do it on a winning issue for Democrats like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, VA benefits, pensions, etc. You don't give Republicans a fucking lifeline by shutting down the government. Schumer got it. A lot of his fellow Democrats, not so much... 

This Prime Minister Is In Over His Head.

By his actions as demonstrated during this past week, our Prime Minister has amply demonstrated that he does not have the royal jelly required to adequately do the job. He is singularly unfit in a way that even Trudeau was incapable of. The man is totally out of his depth and uniquely unqualified for the office he holds. In the fullness of time, that will become apparent to every Canadian. To allow Carney to continue as PM is to put the fate of our country at great risk. The man has no inherent ability to successfully do the job. An election will soon be upon us and it will be imperative that Carney not be returned to office. Way in over his head and simply incapable of navigating that job successfully.

Anand: We're Building A Domestic Resilient Economy.

We're building a domestic resilient economy. Yeah right. They were supposed to start in 2015 but only got around to it ten years later...typical Liberal crap.

Rosie Gets It Wrong Again: On The Carbon Tax.

Poor Rosie, she keeps getting it wrong: Carney did not abolish the carbon tax. He cancelled part of the carbon tax, the one that affects consumers directly on gasoline. The other component, on industrial carbon emissions, remains in place and affects so-called big emitters. I guess nuance and context are not Rosie's strong suit. 

Hillman Is Living In An Alternative Universe.

It's time for Hillman to get candid and realistic: there is NO trust relationship between Canada and the United States. All of that phoney baloney about keeping the same players in place is bullshit. Let me enlighten Carney, his ministers and Hillman - to have a trust relationship, it has to be based on respect and mutual benefit. Trump practices none of that. He has no respect for Canada, our leaders or Canadians. It's about time that Hillman admitted that. Without saying that, she loses all credibility in Canada.

I'm Not A Big Poilièvre Fan But I Want The Liberals Out, So Here I Am.

That's it, in a nutshell.

Polls Still All Over The Place: It's What Kinsella Said That Matters.

Warren distinguishes between traditional land-line polls and internet polls. The latter are far more representative but can be massively distorted in one direction. So, IVR tracking has its advantages and disadvantages. Meanwhile, traditional polling tends to be largely unrepresentative of the masses.

Who knows what's really going on? Innovative Research has the CPC up six, Mainstreet Research has the Liberals ahead by two, and Liaison Strategies has them in the lead by four. 

But once more, Warrren nailed it: none of these polls matter anymore. Only the ones post-Carney as PM will tell the tale all the way to voting day.

CANADA: It Will Be A Coconut Cream Pie Election!

Right now, Carney is the filling and Poilièvre the meringue. Pierre has to turn that around so he can once again be the filling while Carney gets to be the meringue.

A tall order for any politician. Glad my name isn't Pierre.

Who's For Voting For The 15 Million Dollar Man?

Not me!

Will Carney Pull The Plug Tomorrow: Sunday, March 16th?

Nope. He leaves for Europe on Sunday and comes back on Tuesday so my bet is next weekend, not to look too deliberately opportunistic.  

The Next Election: In One Sentence.

If you're Laurier, Pearson, Chrétien and even Mulroney, you win. If you're anyone else, you lose.

Carney Renounces His UK and Irish Passports While Poilièvre Goes With The Harris Strategy.

Carney is in the process of renouncing his British and Irish citizenships. He is doing so now that he serves as prime minister. This is a tricky one: perception seemingly requires that Carney stick only with his Canadian citizenship, but perception isn't everything. After all, Carney's wife is British. So, Carney is playing it safe and removing a possible attack strategy against him. For my part, the loyalty test isn't based on what colour your passport is. It should be based solely on what actions an individual takes. A case in point: look at that traitor south of the border. That guy has been in Putin's pocket since Day One.

Moving on to Poilièvre: he's sticking with the Harris attack strategy - which didn't work. I favoured this strategy and was wrong, so now I know better. Harris called Trump everything but the Antichrist, and she still lost. It's rarely a good idea to be your own attack dog. Potential PMs are supposed to rise above the fray most of the time. Pierre's problem is that he loves being the attack dog and sometimes blows it. He said that Carney thinks Canadians are stupid. You never, EVER, say something like that. Why? If you say that, you're indirectly suggesting that voters who want to re-elect the Liberals for a fourth term are stupid. And that's a top NO-NO when it comes to smart politics. But Pierre just can't clue in. It goes directly from his brain to his mouth without qualification or a political filter. And that's why the CPC will likely lose the next election. 

"Captain Canada" Caves And Gets Nothing In Return.

What a fucking joke: Ford said he was going to impose an export tax on electricity exports to the United States. In other words, he played his strongest card. And then, when Trump did exactly as was expected, a) Ford didn't see it coming and b) had no plan to deal with Trump's threatened fifty percent tariff on steel and aluminum. So, Ford C-A-V-E-D and threw away the only effective card he had in the deck. Someone who actually knows what they're doing would have responded like this: OK, the export tax stays on, and if you double the tariff on steel and aluminum, Ontario will double the export tax. That's how you get an asshole to back down, not by throwing in the towel, asking for a meeting at the White House and getting Lutnick and the other sycophants to play nice with you while promising nothing in the way of American concessions. In short, Ford bluffed, and when it didn't work, simply winged it. 

I've got news for Ford: POS Trump now sees Ford as weak and will make damned sure that no concessions are made to Canada and certainly not to Ontario. They'll meet again next week, and no positive outcomes will come out of that meeting either.

Trump must be laughing: he rolled Ford, just like he made chumps out of Trudeau, LeBlanc and Joly. These people haven't got a clue what they're doing. Put another way, Smith has company at the provincial level. All the Trump tariffs are still there and will remain there, Carney or no Carney, Ford or no Ford. And while you're at it, look up brinksmanship in the dictionary.

Carney Is A Lousy Political Strategist.

What was most obvious going into the leadership race: that the winner of the contest would have to make sure that all wings of the party were well represented in cabinet.

And now we find out that Gould is not in. Can anyone be that stupid? Apparently, Yes. Gould is a rising star in the party and represents the progressive wing, which Carney certainly doesn't. But no matter, she's out! It's political strategy like that that can lose you an election. Just ask Poilièvre.

37.75% Of Liberals Chose The Leader.

What?

The explanation from the party should be interesting, to say the very least. How come so many Liberal members didn't get to vote? How could they have gone with a Canada Post ap?

But 86% is 86%. So, Carney wins hands down.

Liberal Leadership Vote: What A Disaster.

Only 151,000 Liberals have managed to vote as opposed to almost 400,000 party members who were eligible to vote. Not good. The Liberals have really screwed this up. 

There I Said It.

Over at WarrenKinsella.com

I’ve taken my medicine. It helps me to see the true reflection of an individual, you know, a guy who is so totally insecure and inadequate that he has to spend his off-time trying to limit the free speech rights of his fellow Canadians and block their right of expression. A guy who can’t really live up to the job. A third-tier candidate for a first-tier job. At least I will have the quiet satisfaction of watching this know-it-all blow himself right out of the race to occupy the PM’s chair. Maybe you need meds to fix your myriad of self-induced inadequacies. I can pass along my psychiatrist’s phone number since it already shows how much help you need. See you on the election trail!

Will The Liberals Take Off In The Polls Once Carney Has Been Crowned?

Depends very much on Carney's performance. If he does well in the few weeks before he visits the GG, then Yes. But if he does poorly, the Liberal rise in the polls will quickly reverse. So, it's basically wait and see. 

Federal Election: The Ballot Question WON'T Be About Trump.

Simply put, it won't be about Trump or who is better equipped to deal with a deranged lunatic. Conventional wisdom says it will be about Trump, and as per usual, they will be wrong.

The ballot question won't be about who you like. Quite frankly, neither Carney nor Poilièvre are held in any higher esteem than Trudeau is. You can take that one all the way to the bank. No one really likes either one of them. So, the voters will decide who forms the next government based on the lesser of two evils principle: some polls say Carney will win, but most suggest Poilièvre will beat the Liberals.

One of those two polling trends is wrong. Stay tuned!

 

Is The NATO-European Security Trade-Off Dead?

As in all things Trump, he's all over the place on NATO and American commitments to the organization. The original trade-off was a massive American financial contribution in exchange for a common European defence, which would dissuade Russia from moving aggressively against individual countries that fell under the NATO umbrella. In short, European collective security on the American dime. 

Trump's second coming has changed this: he's mused previously about withdrawing from NATO or suggesting that, essentially in its current form, NATO is already dead. Then he moved on to member country defence budgets: first suggesting that each state would have to reach the two percent defence spending ceiling but more recently arguing that each country should pay at least five percent of its GDP on military spending. Most NATO nations aren't close to spending two percent, so imagine what would happen to their domestic economies if five percent suddenly became the order of the day. I get that the United States is tired of paying the freight, and who can blame them? 

Then there's the matter of Ukraine and, more particularly, the view of Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy's argument is essentially two-fold: Young Ukrainians are dying in spades defending their country so that NATO's young people won't have to. The other point is that Ukraine serves as a buffer between NATO and Russia. Were Ukraine to be overrun by Russian forces, that would immediately put Eastern Europe in the crosshairs. It's no secret that Putin's grand ambition is to reconstitute the integrity of the former Soviet Union. If Ukraine falls under Russian control, which country will be next on Putin's list of territorial ambitions?

Zelenskyy has even offered to step down as president if NATO membership were on the table. But Trump doesn't want Ukraine in NATO. Whitaker, Trump's nominee for NATO representative, says Trump's commitment to NATO remains ironclad. We'll see. One suspects that once Whitaker is confirmed, the bullying sessions will immediately commence in Brussels. 

Trump is pushing for a ceasefire and has said previously that he wants to negotiate a deal directly with Russia, extraordinarily enough, without Ukraine's participation. Meanwhile, the United States and Ukraine will meet in Saudi Arabia to iron out the terms of a possible ceasefire proposal. 

The Europeans, for their part, are preparing their own peace deal, which they intend to submit to the United States. It calls for boots on the ground and planes in the air if Ukraine and Russia reach a ceasefire agreement. NATO peacekeepers, instead of independent peacekeepers. That likely would not sit well with Putin, so the European-Canadian plan is probably already a non-starter.

Finally, in light of growing European tensions, the EU and von der Leyen have proposed spending billions to rearm Europe. This new trend is reassuring or menacing, depending on your point of view. Where will Trump come down on this? It's anyone's guess.

 

Smith Endorses Poilièvre.

Smith. In short, a surprise to no one. Now, what will Ford do? Will he speak now or watch the polls instead. To be continued. 

Ekos: Liberal Lead.

LPC: 41

CPC: 36

NDP: 13

GP: 3

BQ: 5

PPC: 1

Are The Polls To Be Trusted: They're All Over The Place.

Hopefully, we're not in another Harris moment: I like Léger and Nanos.

Léger:

CPC: 43

LPC: 30

NDP:13

GP: 4

BQ: 6

PPC: 2

Nanos:

CPC: 37

LPC: 34

NDP: 15

GP: 4

BQ: 8

PPC: 2

A Not At All Sharpie Using A Sharpie.

Pretty much sums it up nicely!

Who The Fuck Is Aged Fifty-Five And BETTER???????????????????????????

Bizarre.

If Trump Wants War With Russia All He Has To Do Is Leave NATO.

That will do it in a New York minute. Putin will start by invading Eastern Europe and, if there is no significant NATO opposition, will move on to Western Europe. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, BibiBrainTM Trump. 

USMCA-CUSMA: Make No Mistake About What Trump's Grand Plan Really Is.

Trump wants to kill USMCA, period. That's it in a nutshell, and he's using everything else as cover to accomplish this.

Fentanyl: Rosie Drops The Ball Again.

Rosie was interviewing O'Gorman from CBSA and not a question about what the RCMP and CBSA are doing to close the illegal fentanyl labs that are operating in Vancouver and Toronto...

UPDATE:

The precursors used to produce fentanyl, namely, phenethyl bromide, propionyl chloride and sodium borohydride are illegally imported into Canada and then combined at the illegal fentanyl labs. CBSA is charged with stopping those imports.  

Ipsos: YIKES!

The leaderless liberals are now ahead of the CPC:

LPC: 38

CPC: 36

NDP: 12

GP: 4

PPC: 3

BQ: 6

It's not looking good.

That Little Weak Man Wants An Apology From Zelenskyy.

What a joke. The raving lunatic's ego has been bruised. Poor baby. Trump has got such low self-esteem, not to mention self-awareness that boo hoo hoo, he needs an apology to feel good.

I've got news for Trump: You won't be getting it anytime soon. So, don't hold your breath because you'll likely go from orange to mango!

Ukraine: Wants Security Guarantees But Already Has Them Thanks To Starmer.

This is all the proof needed that the UK expects WWIII in the short to medium term. Starmer went to Khiv and signed security guarantees last January. So you know what that means: remember the German invasion of Poland in 1939. The Poles had previously signed security guarantees with the UK and France, so when Chamberlain declared war, both countries were, by default, automatically right in it. 

In the final analysis, it doesn't particularly matter if Trump provides security guarantees in exchange for the rare mineral deal because if Russia pushes across NATO borders or tries to overrun Ukraine, the UK will be smack in the middle of it -- that will bring in the rest of NATO and then Trump will be between a rock and a hard place.

As a result, Trump's fun starts as soon as Putin gets going. All those Russian troops mobilized on the Polish and Baltic states' borders aren't there just for show. Put another way, when Putin shows you who he is...  If Putin moves in Eastern Europe, it'll be fireworks and certainly not in a good way.

CPC Anti-Carney Ad Misses The Mark.

Pierre is focused on the wrong target to attack Carney effectively. The CPC went with their stupid carbon tax approach—you know, the tax that every single leadership candidate says is going the way of the Dodo bird. And to add insult to injury, they ran it with that atrocious red colour, which more than effectively negates any positive effects the ad would otherwise have had.

As usual, they are clueless, so I'll have to tell them how it's done: You portray Carney as the Sun King and keep in the shot a luxurious location with champagne, organic gourmet chocolates, strawberries, oysters, etc. You make sure that the ad is in vivid, vibrant, 5K-8K colour. And that's just ad one. For the second ad, you use Carney's serial appearances at the WEF in Davos. And so it goes, ad after ad.