As in all things Trump, he's all over the place on NATO and American commitments to the organization. The original trade-off was a massive American financial contribution in exchange for a common European defence, which would dissuade Russia from moving aggressively against individual countries that fell under the NATO umbrella. In short, European collective security on the American dime.
Trump's second coming has changed this: he's mused previously about withdrawing from NATO or suggesting that, essentially in its current form, NATO is already dead. Then he moved on to member country defence budgets: first suggesting that each state would have to reach the two percent defence spending ceiling but more recently arguing that each country should pay at least five percent of its GDP on military spending. Most NATO nations aren't close to spending two percent, so imagine what would happen to their domestic economies if five percent suddenly became the order of the day. I get that the United States is tired of paying the freight, and who can blame them?
Then there's the matter of Ukraine and, more particularly, the view of Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy's argument is essentially two-fold: Young Ukrainians are dying in spades defending their country so that NATO's young people won't have to. The other point is that Ukraine serves as a buffer between NATO and Russia. Were Ukraine to be overrun by Russian forces, that would immediately put Eastern Europe in the crosshairs. It's no secret that Putin's grand ambition is to reconstitute the integrity of the former Soviet Union. If Ukraine falls under Russian control, which country will be next on Putin's list of territorial ambitions?
Zelenskyy has even offered to step down as president if NATO membership were on the table. But Trump doesn't want Ukraine in NATO. Whitaker, Trump's nominee for NATO representative, says Trump's commitment to NATO remains ironclad. We'll see. One suspects that once Whitaker is confirmed, the bullying sessions will immediately commence in Brussels.
Trump is pushing for a ceasefire and has said previously that he wants to negotiate a deal directly with Russia, extraordinarily enough, without Ukraine's participation. Meanwhile, the United States and Ukraine will meet in Saudi Arabia to iron out the terms of a possible ceasefire proposal.
The Europeans, for their part, are preparing their own peace deal, which they intend to submit to the United States. It calls for boots on the ground and planes in the air if Ukraine and Russia reach a ceasefire agreement. NATO peacekeepers, instead of independent peacekeepers. That likely would not sit well with Putin, so the European-Canadian plan is probably already a non-starter.
Finally, in light of growing European tensions, the EU and von der Leyen have proposed spending billions to rearm Europe. This new trend is reassuring or menacing, depending on your point of view. Where will Trump come down on this? It's anyone's guess.
