Sunday, 30 March 2025

Is Abacus On To Something?

They have the Conservatives and Liberals tied at thirty-nine percent. If Abacus is correct, it means support for both parties is soft and fungible. The Liberals have to consolidate their support as the leading party. The Conservatives have more of a challenge: they must prove that they are the only change agent and that we can do a better job of getting Trump to eliminate tariffs against Canada as quickly as possible. Carney's approach is to play nice and achieve nothing of substance in tariff relief. This is where Pierre has an opportunity. He needs to talk tough but also come up with tradeoffs that Canada could agree to that would prompt Trump to remove the current tariffs or forego future ones on automobiles and other goods. Put another way, Pierre has an incredible challenge: to win in this fight, he has to be prepared to make substantive concessions to the Americans without going too far. What price will Canadians pay to get to a world without tariffs? If the CPC can figure that out, we could still win this election. However, making trade concessions will always be a double-edged sword for any party that agrees to Trump's demands. There's a thin line between making some concessions or going too far and coming off as a sell-out.

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