Saturday 10 July 2021

Why Harper Is Wrong: JCPOA.

I would have thought that Harper had more common sense, not to mention diplomatic acumen but he doesn't...you see we live in a new world now -- in other words, the goalposts have moved and western diplomatic and multi-national defence strategy must reflect that.

Biden and the others will go absolutely nowhere if their objective is to put it back in Pandora's Box because Iran won't. It's all fun and games for sure what with Israel planting explosives under the centrifuges' marble floors and for the United States and Israel to launch multiple successful cyberattacks but that's only successful to a point, it's call the short-sighted game.

You see, this will end in either of two successful outcomes: first, the West will reluctantly agree to Iran's sovereign right to produce nuclear weapons, which they already are not far off from doing and then the masterstroke: the West will impose its red-line containment strategy where if the Islamic Republic cross that redline, it's automatic hot war with all of the Western powers.

The other strategic option is the balance of the nuclear triangle where if diplomatic efforts are not successful then Iran will develop its weapons and the West will provide Saudi Arabia with same. That will bring us to MAD, a nuclear standoff and security parity. In other words, for it to work we need political sanity to flow again like it did in India and Pakistan. India did not seriously contemplate first-strikes while Pakistan by and large kept the peace. Once Pakistan got its own arsenal, that projected us into a world of a standoff but with a cold-peace and there we remain to this day.

So, listen up Biden and the others: it's either A or B. Trying to go back to the old framework agreement and the good old days is dead. Use your brains going forward. 

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