Wednesday 23 February 2022

When Putin Shows You Who He Is...

Is a full blown Ukraine invasion in the cards? Sure looks that way. Russian troops and local militias have been on Ukrainian soil for the past eight years and now Putin's forces are in these so-called newly Russian recognized independent republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

So...it's not too much of a leap to expect Russian forces to invade and ultimately occupy the rest of Ukraine, which they will surely do.

And that's when the rubber will finally hit the road for NATO members. Sanctions, even unprecedented ones, are all good and well but they are no deterrent nor sufficient enough to make Putin blink, much less back down. 

That means the local resistence will quickly have to take the form of guerilla warfare and that, at best, to use a Rumsfeldism, risks to be a long, hard, slog.

And then there's the elephant in the room that Biden and the rest of them don't want to talk about, namely, that Ukraine along with Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan and Sweden are NATO Enchanced Opportunities Partners. Put another way, either that means something important or it means nothing. 

Seems to me that NATO will have to quickly take a stand otherwise we play into Putin's hands and all of us who are sentient already know what that would mean in Round Two for the NATO member Baltic states. Because, as sure as I'm breathing, that's where this Russian incursion is going next. Make no mistake, if Putin goes there, that means all out war with NATO, period. But if Putin got away with Ukraine, won't he think he can get away with it a second time? Precisely.

That means NATO has to quickly hold the line in Ukraine, if an all out invasion happens. In short, it will be red-line time and we won't have any other practical choice, unless we're prepared to permit and concede an eventual Russian domination over much of former Soviet Europe. Yup, it is that simple. Fight now, or inevitably fight later over a far larger expanse of Russian occupied territory. There is no other credible way out. Putin has already seen to that.

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