Monday 13 June 2022

Boom!, Down They Go.

The adjusted Ten Year Yield closed at 3.366. That tells you a few things: the actual inflation rate is somewhere between 16 and 18 percent, not 8.6 percent. That means credit markets are well on their way to seizing up and so, stock markets will continue falling -- just wait until Wednesday when the next interest rate hike is likely to be 0.75 or maybe, just maybe, a full percentage point.

The other point is that recency bias won't work this time. How can The Fed choke or reverse course when inflation continues to gallop ahead? So...The Fed incompetents and inflation creators can't do anything but continue raising rates, period.

Remember to cool inflation and hopefully reverse it, the FFR has to be above the inflation rate. That's what Volcker did. Otherwise, QT just won't work. 

The next mine on the road will be whether stagflation, where we are now, throws the economy into a "technical" recession. Normally, that would put us on a deflationary course but that won't happen so long as inflation's trajectory continues to rise. (Sorry, Cathie.)

So what am I doing? I'm buying precious and base-metal royalty companies and moving up the food chain when it comes to large cap, dividend gold, silver and uranium stocks. Buying physical is also a good idea so long as you don't have to pay ridiculously high premiums. 

That's my stock market insurance. We'll see if it works or not over the medium term.


1 comment:

  1. I'll also be buying the Sprott Trusts precisely because they're not derivative-based paper ETFs, not backed by physical metal. In other words, ETFs are garbage. Right now, I only own the Uranium Trust. Don't yet own the Gold, Silver, Platinum or Palladium Trusts.

    ReplyDelete