Jagmeet Singh: No Rhyme Nor Reason.

Am I full of shit? You see, I back the political conventional wisdom -- the one that says that Singh is a fool for repeatedly agreeing to back the Trudeau Liberals -- and therefore, he should get his head handed to him by the Liberals in the next election. You know how it goes: serial NDP leaders back the Liberals on confidence and end up having their lunch eaten by Liberal candidates in a subsequent election.

But, but, but...what's the thing in the polls about Canadians actually preferring Jagmeet over Trudeau or Poilièvre!? Get this, many of them aren't planning to vote NDP, but they still prefer Singh over the other leaders. Singh to this day is still over 50%. So, what's this wrinkle all about?  Damned if I know.

So, in short, I'm taking it back about NDP MPs pro forma losing their seats in the next election. At a minimum, I have to caveat my political assumptions. My foundational conclusions about Jagmeet and his party may not actually be on target in the end. Imagine that.

Now, politically, if the NDP keeps most of their seats and remains relatively strong, what does that do to Liberal chances under Trudeau or a successor? Can they still come up the middle and win re-election? For sure, not as easily as if NDP support collapsed in an election, but hey, Trudeau might just be able to hang on. Maybe.

That to me is at the very least distressing, if not shocking. Trudeau might win again. Well, that ruins my day and the rest of the year. Fortunately, only one day remains on the calendar.