Saturday 4 February 2023

Chinese Spy Balloon: China B, United States C+ and Canada F.

The Chinese spy balloon is not good news for any of the countries involved: it was sent over the U.S. mainland to flyover each of the three links of the strategic nuclear triad: missile silos, bomber bases and submarine installations. So, it's great news for the Chinese military, but not so much for President Xi Jinping. It derailed the visit of Secretary of State Blinken, and Beijing is no doubt not thrilled about that. For Xi to be out of the loop on this one is extraordinary, but seemingly he was. 

So, China gets a B, while the United States gets a rather unremarkable C+, given that this balloon's flight path took it initially over Alaska, and it appears that it was not detected there. Canada, as usual, comes off as the laughingstock of security intelligence: the balloon flew over Yukon, British Columbia and Alberta and was not detected. Period. Prime Minister Trudeau is trying to hide behind the NORAD fig leaf, but that just doesn't cut the mustard. The Canadians and NORAD were caught napping, at least until it entered Montana's airspace. 

This is disastrous in national security terms because the balloon is slow moving and follows a trajectory set by wind currents -- imagine if it had been a supersonic, or worse yet, a hypersonic missile -- it would have got us where we live before we had time to bat an eye. Heads are going to have to roll in Canadian military intelligence and at NORAD. In short, their performance was pathetic. This balloon should have been detected as soon as it entered Alaskan airspace. 

So, it's all smiles over at Chinese military intelligence. For everyone else, not one bit.

UPDATE: American officials now say that the balloon was being tracked by the United States Northern Command from the moment it entered American airspace in Alaska. Thank God for that.

UPDATED AGAIN: There is now reporting that NORAD was tracking the balloon from the moment it first appeared over the Aleutian Islands. So, they DID DO their job. Thankfully, for all of us.

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