Mission Accomplished...Again.

Remember when Bush declared Mission Accomplished in Iraq? Well, I don't think so. And now the analysts by and large are pushing the disinflation narrative, a soft landing for the economy and no recession. They should start a public relations firm with Bush. Next.

But yield curves don't lie -- especially in predicting an eventual recession -- personally, I think we're in it already, but recessions are always data-dependent and diagnosed in the rearview mirror. 

Sure, disinflation exists in a few sectors, but by and large, inflation continues to uptick. So...for how long? And is stagflation the elephant that will ultimately come into the picture?

Thank God we still have Powell to further screw up the American economy: this fool is admitting to being data-dependent. The guy was supposed to get ahead of inflation by raising rates and ultimately killing it. Not anymore. Call it a half-pause. The FOMC isn't exactly planning to pause rates, just continue increasing them in smaller increments. In a word, stupid. Wasn't the fight against inflation supposed to last a few years? Not anymore. Hence, the bear market rally that passes itself off as the "beginning" of a new bull market. Right, if you say so. Not in a million years.

So, you guessed it, the retail crowd, largely ignorant of economic, fiscal and monetary fundamentals are all in a buying frenzy. Like every other time, they'll be left holding the bag when the bond and stock markets crash, which they inevitably will. 

But, but, but, this new bull market is different! OK, go with that, at least until the point where you lose almost all your dough in the next severe market downturn. It ain't that far away, and it's coming in spades.