Canada: What Is Happening In The Polls?

Éric from The Writ has done more excellent work over at his place. His big takeaway is that the Conservatives have a one-in-four chance of not forming a majority government. Given the CPC's consistent two-year lead, this is highly significant. It confirms that the start of the erosion of CPC support is underway. The good news is that we're still at 42% but one region of the country has now shifted to the Liberal camp, namely Atlantic Canada. 

Éric puts it so well when he writes the following:

"Much of the change in the Liberals’ fortunes has taken place in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. At the moment of Trudeau’s resignation, the Liberal seat-ceiling in Ontario was 19 seats. It’s now 50. It went from 22 to 32 seats in Quebec and seven to 20 in Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals are now projected to win more seats than the Conservatives. The region that was looking like a Liberal wasteland now has a lot of Liberal-leaning and toss-up seats in the projections."

The obvious question is why is this happening? There could be two reasons for this: Carney is seen as a shiny new toy with a limited association with the Trudeau government. Under this scenario, he gets a pass for his past involvement with the Justin Liberals. In short, people aren't moving to the Liberals because of Carney's personality, incredible charisma or political ability -- Carney has all the personality and political sophistication of a pet rock. But people are moving his way nonetheless. For part of the electorate, especially former NDP voters, Carney is the only change incarnation they're willing to vote for. That means trouble for the CPC.

Next, comes the other side of the coin scenario that no fellow Conservative wants to discuss: what is Pierre saying or doing wrong that is responsible at least partly for our drop in the polls? Take his position on the carbon tax: he's still hammering that one home when no Liberal leadership candidate is still committed to it... that shows Poilièvre's lack of political sophistication and ongoing stubbornness. We aren't even in an election yet and the country is moving politically but Pierre is still fighting the last war. Not good. So...the question Pierre has to ask himself, if self-introspection is indeed still possible, is what have I done to erode our support in recent weeks? Put another way, the obvious answer is that whatever he has been doing for the past seven weeks has eroded voter confidence in the CPC message and its leader. That is a testimony to the party strategists' limited ability, to put it charitably. Poilièvre needs to see the expanding writing on the wall and counter it effectively. If Pierre can't rapidly do that, the Liberals will likely regain the lead in Ontario and Quebec. And if that happens, it will be all over for the CPC. If the new prevailing political trend is not effectively countered, Pierre will be known as the guy who blew a twenty-five-point lead in an election. That would mean resigning as leader. I said a while ago that Poilièvre would make or break the next campaign. It's all up to him. In the end, he'll be solely responsible for the result. Like Harper was in 2015. Not Carney, not Trudeau, not anyone else.