CPC: From Protest Vessel To Party Losing Ground.

Welcome to Crunch Time where Pierre's mettle will be sorely tested. He's had a free ride up until now with a two-year consistent polling lead of between twenty and twenty-five points. But the good old days are gone for good now that the Liberals are about to change leader.

The outgoing Prime Minister is also helping them in the polls as he fights TheLunaticTrumpTM. No one ever expected that. So pick your pollster but take all those numbers with a large grain of salt. My focus is on lead shrinkage: IR has us up thirteen while PD has the CPC only ahead by six. If PD is to be believed, we've dropped nineteen points from our base high, or if you prefer, only fourteen points from our recent polling average.

Pierre is another Ford, the type of guy who consistently underpolls his party which isn't good news. Ford foresaw a lead pipe cinch election and yours truly said previously that Ford was full of beans. How will the Liberal afterglow affect Poilièvre once Carney becomes leader? No question that Carney will get a bounce, one that will probably be more pronounced if he can successfully fight Trump. 

So, in the final analysis, the election will only be about which man you want to see in the PM's chair. Carney will get there first. Pierre will either make or break his chances of becoming PM. Right now, we're still in majority government territory. Remains to be seen if we can hold there. Our main problem is that we have no natural dancing partner should it come to forming a minority government. The Liberals have frenemies they can count on when push comes to shove. In our case, having not cultivated constructive alliances, all we can do is yearn for the days when Social Credit was there to possibly bail us out. In this Parliament, the CPC has no-takers now that the Liberals are shopping for a new leader. Not good.