First They Restructure Committees And Then...Comes The Poison Pill To Provoke A Fall Election.

Carney's Liberals are happier than a pig in shit. They have no doubt that Pierre will be around as CPC leader in the fall, and that fills them with glee, knowing that when they engineer the sudden need for an election, the opposition parties will be unable to stop it.

This Prime Minister doesn't want a bare majority -- he wants one in Mulroney territory, and polls show that the Liberals can get it this fall without breaking a sweat. So...the manufactured election will do two things: give Carney a huge majority and, in addition, rid the Conservatives of our leader. No one in this party will want Pierre to stick around after that, having lost by that point two elections in a row. You know what they say about happy but limited silver linings! 

 

Fréchette : Le parcours de Campbell est-il instructif ?

La dernière fois qu’une femme a pris la tête du gouvernement fédéral, c’était en 1993, lorsque Kim Campbell est devenue Première ministre. Au moment de son accession au pouvoir, le Parti progressiste-conservateur recueillait environ 12 % des intentions de vote. L’ère Mulroney avait causé de graves dommages. 

Après avoir été élue à la tête du parti, Campbell a rapidement gagné 7 points, avec un taux de popularité supérieur à 40 %. De plus, elle a laissé Jean Chrétien loin derrière elle, avec un taux d’approbation de 51 %. Elle devançait ainsi largement Chrétien, qui n’enregistrait que 31 % dans les sondages. 

Malgré sa popularité, Campbell n’a finalement pas réussi à traduire son soutien personnel en gains pour son gouvernement. Les libéraux ont pris la tête au cours de l’été, dépassant le PPC avec 40 %, soit une avance de 4 points.

À l'automne et pendant la campagne électorale, cet écart s'est creusé, le PLC formant un gouvernement majoritaire avec 42 % des voix, contre 16 % pour le PPC. Ce dernier, qui détenait auparavant un gouvernement majoritaire de 169 sièges, s'est retrouvé réduit à 2 sièges après les élections. En bref, Jean Charest et Elsie Wayne.

La leçon à en tirer est la suivante : même avec une forte popularité personnelle, rien ne garantit que ce soutien individuel sera à l'avantage de ton parti. Fréchette pourrait devoir faire face à ce genre de scénario, s'il venait à se produire lors des prochaines élections.

Armed Attack at the Washington DC Hilton.

Frankly, I didn't think that Trump had it in him: he behaved with class and moderation when speaking to the press once back at the White House. Three times. Simply incredible. Trump must have been born under a lucky star.

White House Correspondents' Dinner: Did the Gunman have a Plastic Gun?

Wow.

Carney's Canada-U.S. Economic Relations Advisory Committee.

This is pure gold for Carney. It reeks of bipartisanship, much to PP's dismay. Among its members are Charest, O'Toole and Raitt, formerly associated with our party, in one case nominally. 

And there's more: the unintentional but obvious subtext goes in two exquisite directions. It gives the middle finger to Harper and Poilièvre in spades and, even more deliciously, is an unanticipated but apparent vote of non-confidence in Pierre's leadership. So, what else is new?!

Léger : PQ 31%, PLQ 28%, CAQ 17%, PCQ 14% et QS 8%.

Le message suivant, adressé à Charles Milliard, n’a aucun lien avec le sondage Léger mentionné en titre. Bref, Charles, tu me mets vraiment en joli tabarnak ! Tout d’abord, tu dois comprendre deux choses : tu es le chef et c’est à tes députés de suivre la ligne du parti et les directives de ton cabinet. Voilà le premier point. Ce n’est pas ton rôle d’être en consultation constante avec ton caucus ni de céder à ses demandes sur les grands enjeux qui préoccupent le Québec et la population majoritaire. L’autre question concerne le niveau d’engagement actif non seulement dans la défense de la langue française, mais aussi dans son renforcement par le biais de nouvelles politiques linguistiques jugées essentielles par la grande majorité des Québécois. En d’autres termes, promouvoir le français sans en assurer le progrès et son expansion à ce niveau est inacceptable pour la plupart des électeurs francophones, qui sont les concitoyens des anglophones et des allophones. Le niveau d’engagement du PLQ doit, à tout le moins, égaler celui de la CAQ pour être crédible en tant qu’option politique sérieuse. Et j’irais même plus loin : pour remporter les prochaines élections, nous, au Parti libéral, devrons surpasser la CAQ sur la question du français, de sa protection et de son épanouissement. C’est ce qui sera en jeu lors de la prochaine campagne électorale.

Permettez-moi également de te rappeler que ce n’est pas le rôle d’un caucus parlementaire de dicter la ligne politique du parti ou la position du chef sur une question qui fait la une de l’actualité ou qui se révèle prioritaire pour le Québec à un moment donné. Si l’un de nos députés n’est pas en mesure de se rallier à la ligne politique du parti et de son chef, eh bien, il appartiendra à toi de trouver un nouveau candidat dans cette circonscription. Prends ta place, sans t'affirmer avec la timidité d’un nouveau-né. Comme on dit en anglais : this is big picture stuff, c’est une question d’ensemble, et si le chef et ses députés ne parviennent pas à rassurer le public sur leur priorité absolue qui est le français et les enjeux qui y sont liés, nous n’aurons aucune chance de former le prochain gouvernement. Les Québécois recherchent un champion. Jusqu’à présent, la population ne te considère pas comme le choix naturel. Câlice, le temps presse. Agis avant qu’il ne soit bien trop tard pour le parti. Le mois d’octobre approche à grands pas.

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Nanos Numbers State The Obvious.

Unless you've been unconscious over the last year, none of this should come as a surprise to you. The latest polls reveal one thing: this polling trend, where the CPC is down, is not recoverable for the party. Pierre is nothing more than a milestone around our necks, and as long as he stays as leader, the lower our polling numbers will go.

Nanos has the Liberals first with 46 percent, a whopping fourteen-point lead over the Conservatives. FOURTEEN points! The NDP number is rising in the wake of their leadership race and now stands at 12 percent, with the BQ polling 5 percent and the GP one point behind. 

It doesn't take a genius to draw your own conclusion. Here's mine: the LPC is holding steady while the New Democrats rise and the CPC stagnates in the low thirties. Couple that with the latest rumour coming out of Ottawa that a polling firm predicts the Conservatives could lose as many as fifty seats if an election were held today. 

So, I remind you again that it's either his ass or most of yours. Pick a lane now and come out publicly against the leader if you want this party to win the next election. Pierre is deliberately hanging on and doesn't give a shit what any of you think. Act accordingly. Dump him now.

Carney: What A Loser.

He won't even get off his ass to reply in QP and admit that he was wrong. How many times will it take before he honours us with an answer? This guy is accountable to no one in his own mind. And of course, the countless dolts will lap it all up and find a million reasons to make excuses for his behaviour. What a fucking joke but sadly, the joke is on all of us.

Sondage Léger : Le PQ en tête.

PQ : 31%

PLQ : 28%        

CAQ : 17%

PCQ : 14%

QS : 8%

Sondage Léger : Meilleur premier ministre - Québec.

PSPP :    23 %

CM :       17%

CF :        16%

ED :        11%

RG :        4%

Ne sait pas :    30%        

POILIÈVRE OUT!: We've Made A Beachhead!

Angus Reid made my day: we are now at thirty percent of past CPC voters who want Pierre out. When it comes to the general public, sixty percent view him unfavourably while forty-five percent blame him for pushing people away [out] of his party. And those are the people who vote. Man, this is great. 

Time is Pierre's most powerful enemy. It will continue to move the numbers against his leadership. We will get him out. It's only a matter of a few months. Each floor-crosser was a vote of non-confidence in the leader. Let's wait and see if there will be any more.

58% of past CPC voters stand by Poilievre’s long-term leadership, but increasing numbers say he should go - Angus Reid Institute

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Now You Know Why Only A Handful Of CPC MPs Defended Pierre.

Most of the caucus is angry and frustrated. What party in its right mind would keep a leader who couldn't even win his own seat, a seat he held for TWENTY years? The writing is already on the wall. This will play out over the next three to four months, and in the end, Pierre will be gone. It will most resemble the playbook used against Trudeau: one MP, then a trickle, followed by a half-dozen and finally one-third to one-half of caucus. Once we hit that mark, no one will be able to save Pierre's leadership. He'll be done as dinner. Hopefully, by then, he'll have put his ego in check and have the decency and humility to just go. But I won't be holding my breath waiting for him to leave. So, keep pushing and with each passing week, push harder!

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Nanos Breaks Down The Real Issue Pertaining To Pierre's Leadership.

© Nanos Research.

Preferred PM

52%▼2Carney25%▲2Poilievre14%Don't know4%▲1Lewis3%Blanchet2%May

Nanos Research federal poll | 2026-04-10

PLQ : Sondage Pallas.

Ah, on voit ici se dessiner le début d'une tendance où le PLQ est en tête, mais cette fois avec trois points d’avance sur le PQ. Ce dernier n’obtient que 29 % des intentions de vote. Le PCQ et la CAQ sont au coude à coude à 14 %, tandis que QS est à la traîne avec 11 %.

Avant tout, il est dans la nature même des libéraux de prendre le pouvoir, quel qu’en soit le coût ou l’impact préalable sur leur coalition. Traduction : ce n’est qu’une question de temps avant que Milliard ne se retourne contre les communautés anglophones et culturelles. Peu importe si les anglos sont déjà en révolte au sein du parti, la réplique dans la langue de Shakespeare sera « so what ». 

S'il doit se contorsionner comme un bretzel pour remporter les prochaines élections, je peux vous assurer que Milliard n'y verra que du positif. Après tout, les membres minoritaires de la coalition du PLQ sont déjà pris pour acquis et, en substance, tenus en otage. Ils n'ont nulle part où aller. En bref, ils feront partie de ceux qui subiront des dommages collatéraux à la suite de la prochaine campagne électorale.

POILIÈVRE OUT!: CPC Supporters Will Start Lying To Pollsters.

Act 3

This will be the first pressure tactic used by dissident Conservatives to put pressure on Pierre to go: they will begin deliberately lying to pollsters, telling them that they intend to vote Liberal in the next election to further inflate Liberal gains in the polls. Once CPC numbers reach a negative tipping point, dissidents will have all the ammunition they need to demand that the Reform Act be dusted off.

 

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Pierre Blows The "Very Badly Educated" in Economics Schtick.

Act 2

I can picture Katy rolling her eyes: he just doesn't get it. Pierre should know by now that people are always on the lookout for a reason to dismiss both the leader and his argument, and he played right into that Liberal narrative. First off, in Comm 101, you acknowledge the Prime Minister's degrees from Harvard and Oxford. Then you explain how he's a Keynesian, and only then do you put your main arguments forward while emphasizing at the same time what Austrian economic theory professes and why it is correct in its analysis of the digitization of money and the relationship to increased inflation via what is commonly but erroneously termed "money printing." Finally, you make the case that there's a direct causal relationship between Keynesianism and beyond core inflation historical statistics. 

I imagine there's no hope that Pierrre will ever get this right...

POILIÈVRE OUT! War Room Is Now Live.

Act 1

Once again, I'm on a mission, this time to carry the water for the POILIÈVRE OUT! War Room. My first message is for dissident CPC MPs still sitting in caucus. I suggest you use a two-prong strategy: begin by expressing your views and dissatisfaction with the leader, and see how that goes over in the room. If that isn't sufficient to influence other MPs, then announce that as of "X" date, you will be sitting as an independent.

I urge all of you to put the party first and not cross to the Liberals. We will need each and every one of you to help us rebuild this party in the wake of the next election. You know the Liberals, they want Pierre right where he is so that they can get a huge majority in a snap election, which they'll call this fall. Please don't play into their hands. 

Poilièvre: Some People Have No Honour.

Pierre doesn't give a shit about the party, the electoral prospects of his MPs or anything else. All he cares about is keeping his sorry ass in the leader's chair. Pierre is nothing other than ballot box poison: most people don't like him and wouldn't vote for the CPC with a gun pointed at their head as long as this pathetic guy leads our party.

He's all about himself and couldn't care less how many MPs will lose their seats in the fall election. But I've got news for him: the pause in floor-crossers is about to accelerate again, given that he refuses to resign. Nobody with a functioning brain wants this bozo still leading the party when we go to an election. 

His leadership will inevitably be destroyed by a hundred cuts. It will take weeks, but there's no doubt in my mind that he'll be gone sooner rather than later. The catalyst will be the polls, where I expect to see the party in free-fall, given his self-centred, selfish obstinacy to stay in the job.

You think the NDP is going nowhere fast. That's nothing compared to where this party is headed if he stays as leader. Pierre may not think so, but it's only a matter of when he'll finally be forced out by caucus. And between now and then, all of you can count on me to stay on the attack. I won't rest until he's gone, politically speaking. 

For those who don't know, my record is pretty good. Only failed against Harper. Got all the other ones. I like those odds!

Push Poilièvre Out Now!

4:46 A.M. - This is a first for me. I literally went to bed seething, and you can imagine how many hours of sleep I've had tonight. About three. For the last hour, I've been tossing and turning, and that's about it.

To no one's surprise, it did not take long for me to conclude that Poilièvre must be removed as leader, and it has to happen now. He's already on the internet and sending bullshit e-mails to deflect responsibility for this humiliation on anyone other than himself. Typical Pierre. He hasn't got the guts to do the honourable and obvious thing: RESIGN. And so that job will fall to what remains of our caucus, those who have not yet spoken loud and clear with their feet.

Pierre is nothing more than a losing appendage, a poor excuse for a leader and Canadians in most parts of Canada want nothing further to do with him. That was made crystal clear on election night when he blew his own riding of Carleton. Put another way, they kicked him to the curb after TWENTY years. Voters finally had enough. We should have gotten rid of him politically then and there, but no, we preferred to make excuses for this guy and allow him to desperately hang on, which he did. He sticks to this leadership like glue because, in his heart of hearts, he knows that prospects are likely dim in the private sector should he go voluntarily or be shown the door by his own MPs. But none of that is our problem. It's his.

From this point, this isn't really about him. It's about us and whether we will continue to make excuses for this dud of a leader -- you know, all that bullshit about moral victories and history will judge. Total garbage that no sane person would buy unless they were a willing supplicant to a political loser. Now, it's about the party and where we're heading. Either he goes or most of our MPs will in the fall election. In essence, the choice has already been made for us. It's up to MPs to do what must be done to give us a fighting chance in the next election. 

The tea leaves are obvious for all to see: another huge stretch on the opposition benches with no chance of forming government, none whatsoever, as long as Pierre remains leader. Done and dusted. He needs to go now, and if he won't voluntarily resign, then it's our MPs' job to remove him. (Worked out just great for the Liberals.) In short, take a hint or be prepared to serve another five years as a hobbled and weakened rump on the opposition benches. The power now is quite literally in your hands. Make the most of it or forget forming a government for the better part of the next decade. His leadership needs to end right now, or a lot of your jobs will when Carney pulls the plug. It's either HIS ass or most of yours.

Terrebonne: The Morons In The OLO Just Gave This Riding To Carney...

How many times did I tell our hopeless leader that the Liberals would win in Terrebonne if the CPC ran a candidate in that riding? And of course, our idiots paid no attention, and now the CPC vote delivered the riding to the Carney Liberals.

So, resign now, you stupid idiot and take your useless fucks in the OLO with you. If this guy stays in his job, we will richly deserve to lose at least forty seats to the Liberals in the general coming this fall. 

Christine Fréchette.

Un bon discours. 

François Legault.

Un homme d'état, un vrai chef. Bonne retraite !

PLQ : Le parti a le vent dans les voiles.

Le sondage Léger révèle que le PLQ devance légèrement le PQ d’un point de pourcentage. Les libéraux recueillent 33 % des intentions de vote. Cela ne reflète pas une tendance, mais c’est un bon début.

Cependant, le véritable problème du PQ, c’est son chef et son entêtement concernant un référendum sur la souveraineté. Soixante-six pour cent des personnes interrogées ont une opinion favorable ou neutre du chef du PQ. Mais regardez le chiffre de Milliard : il s’élève à quatre-vingt-deux pour cent !  

L'électorat québécois passe de la neutralité à une opinion positive, ce n'est pas le cas pour PSPP. En substance, la voie est libre pour conquérir les électeurs « de souche ». Mais avant de franchir ce pas, Milliard devra inévitablement trahir les anglophones et les communautés ethniques s'il veut devenir premier ministre. Ces deux groupes sont une valeur sûre. Ils n'auront d'autre choix que de voter pour le PLQ quoi qu'il arrive. 

Comme l’a dit Lord Acton : « Le pouvoir absolu corrompt absolument », et c’est là la formule magique des libéraux. Le PLQ suivra la voie pour accéder au pouvoir. C’est une certitude. La question de la souveraineté sera l’épée de Damoclès qui assurera la victoire des libéraux. Le PLQ a déjà senti l’odeur du pouvoir dans l’air et fera tout ce qui est nécessaire pour presque garantir son accession au pouvoir lors des prochaines élections.

https://leger360.com/fr/dernieres-nouvelles-politique-quebecoise-lutte-a-deux-entre-pq-plq-caq-peine-a-mobiliser-leger-avril-2026/

Carney's Speech.

It was OK to good if you like that kind of thing. No one does soft-soap better than this Prime Minister. 

A Message For Conservative Party MPs.

There are press reports circulating that another ten CPC MPs are considering crossing the floor to sit as Liberals. With respect, and understanding your motives, I urge all of you to stay put and send your message of concern loud and clear to the leader.

It's imperative that you stick around because we need all of our top talent across the moderate Conservative spectrum to put this party back together and win the next election, either under an interim leader who resonates with moderates, centrists and conservatives, or preferably, under a new leader.

We're Conservatives for a reason and we're the only credible alternative to this government. We need all of you to make things happen and change political history in this country. Please remain united in caucus and put your best foot forward in the interest of our country, party and individual Canadians. 

May God Bless the Conservative Party of Canada. 

Pierre, Resign Already.

I don't know about you, but I've finally had enough. It's high time for the leader to quit. We need to be heading into the highly likely November election with at least an interim leader to lessen the hemorrhaging of seats we'll experience if Pierre stays on as leader. 

Perhaps most of you are prepared to lose twenty to thirty fucking seats in that election, but I'm not. So, please, just leave and be quick about it.

Trump: Twenty-fifth Amendment Time!

Trump is so out of it that he revealed classified information that "hundreds" of military personnel took part in the rescue of the military pilot in Iran. He previously also announced publicly that a Member of Congress was dying. That's it, folks. He needs to go now.

And just for fun: if Trump really wants to find "the leaker" simply tell him to turn to his left and voilà. There goes another one.

The Iran War: That Stupid Fuck POS Is Certifiable.

The losses in planes and helicopters are far greater than the Trump Administration has made public. The United States is already losing this war. Incredible. Watch this moron bring in the draft, and America will still lose the war. And to lose to such a horrible regime like Iran. The ultimate disgrace for the United States and those brave and dutiful service people in uniform. May God protect those heroic patriots. This administration will be solely responsible for their deaths and injuries.

Charles Milliard : le prochain premier ministre du Québec.

Il semble que je sois le premier à annoncer que Charles Milliard sera le prochain premier ministre. À mon sens, les dés sont déjà jetés et la situation est tout à fait claire : les élections d’octobre prochain ne seront pas seulement un référendum sur la CAQ, mais aussi sur le PQ et son chef. Et dans ces circonstances, la voie sera ouverte pour que le PLQ puisse gagner avec un gouvernement majoritaire.

Le problème crucial pour le PQ, c’est son obstination, particulièrement l’entêtement de son chef qui veut tenir un référendum sur la souveraineté dès son premier mandat, alors qu’au moins 70 % de la population ne veut rien savoir de cette option. Pour eux, les vieilles querelles entre souverainistes et fédéralistes ont fait leur temps depuis plusieurs années. PSPP ne semble pas avoir la capacité intellectuelle de le comprendre. Pire encore, il sermonne les Québécois à la manière de Harper et de Poilièvre, ce qui aura un effet dévastateur sur les intentions de vote qui, autrefois, étaient non seulement ouvertes à un gouvernement du PQ, mais même fortement disposées à cette éventualité. Ce n’est plus le cas.

De plus, regardons les sondages : je vous rappelle que lorsque Pablo Rodriguez était chef du PLQ, les libéraux avaient réussi à faire une première brèche dans la domination du PQ : ils se situaient à 29 %, le PQ en avance avec une marge de seulement 2 %. Rodriguez était sur la bonne voie, mais à la suite des scandales, le parti s’est retrouvé en baisse de 9 %, le PQ menant avec une marge de 15 %. 

Entre-temps, le PQ a perdu son avance et le parti est désormais au coude à coude avec le PLQ dans un sondage Léger. D’autres sondages situent l’avance du PQ à moins de deux chiffres. Tout cela pour dire que la dynamique des libéraux continuera de prendre du terrain dans les sondages jusqu’en octobre prochain. En effet, Milliard ne sera que partiellement responsable le jour où les libéraux gagneront les prochaines élections. Ce sera surtout PSPP qui fera perdre les élections. Son entêtement et son ton moralisateur, combinés à sa position sur la souveraineté, contribueront à renforcer l’avance des libéraux dans les sondages. En bref, le PLQ l’emportera dans des régions où, jusqu’à présent, ses chiffres dans les sondages étaient négligeables. 

Quelle ironie de voir PSPP devenir le prochain PP,  mal-aimé non seulement pour sa personnalité et son entêtement, mais aussi pour sa volonté de presque forcer les Québécois à adhérer à un projet qui, semble-t-il, ne les intéresse absolument pas. À mon avis, le soir des élections, Milliard, de son for intérieur, devra remercier PSPP du fond du cœur pour cette merveilleuse et largement inattendue soirée électorale en faveur du Parti libéral du Québec.

Why Double Non-Confidence In Pierre's Leadership Is Already On The Table.

In short, Spark Advocacy. This is a large poll of four thousand potential voters. It shows the Liberals with a whopping sixteen-point lead: 46 percent, CPC: 30 percent, the NDP: 11 percent, with the BQ trailing at 5 percent. This is a huge vote of non-confidence in the CPC leader and his front bench. Put another way, likely voters are now finally sealing the deal on Pierre's leadership. This poll couldn't come at a worse time for him, given the fact that the Liberals could win at least two of the byelections being held on April 13th.

Bruce Anderson sums things up regarding the poll here:

Liberals ahead by 16; Approval of Carney government hits 68%

If the Liberals take two of the three byelections, they will have a bare majority, with the speaker potentially losing his job in favour of an opposition member to further cushion that majority. This scenario actually increases the chances of a fall election: Carney will want a formal mandate from voters with an appropriate translation in seats. Imagine the size of the majority that the Liberals could get in a fall election. Think Mulroney territory. 

And if all of that wasn't enough to undermine the level of credibility that Pierre still has in caucus, there are rumblings that several more CPC MPs are going to jump ship post April 13th, using a different strategy: they will show their disapproval of Poilièvre's contuinued leadership by sitting as Independents, thereby sending a strong message to caucus that now is the time to dustoff the Reform Act and vacate the leadership, before Carney can move to an election, which could be held in November, right after the Quebec election. So, interesting times ahead with yours truly remaining skeptical that CPC MPs will really have the guts to put the Reform Act in play. I'll believe it when I see it, but the main point here is that Pierre's leadership becomes untenable right after those byelections. He should go then, but he won't. As for what happens after that, the decision largely rests with the CPC caucus. Leaders are supposed to put party first, but in the cold reality of political self-interest, they usually don't. Expect Pierre to be no different. Remember that, in the Quebec provincial context, Rodriguez's first instinct was to hold on. Unfortunately for him, his caucus had other ideas, and so he resigned in the end. In essence, that was the only realistic and honourable option open to him. 

Is Disbarment In Her Future?

You bet it is! I'm going to enjoy this.

Les sondages devraient faire le bonheur de Milliard et du PLQ.

Si j’étais stratège au Parti québécois, je commencerais à paniquer, et j’aurais de nombreuses bonnes raisons de le faire : tout d’abord, j’ai un chef qui refuse de revenir sur la position du parti quant à la tenue d’un référendum au cours du premier mandat d’un gouvernement du PQ. Cela va probablement faire chuter le soutien au PQ parmi les francophones. Personne dans la rue ne veut subir une campagne référendaire si le PQ arrive au pouvoir. Deuxièmement, le PQ a un problème plus subtil, à savoir la personnalité et les positions de son chef. Une raison de plus pour les non-partisans inconditionnels de se tourner vers d’autres horizons.

Cela nous amène au PLQ : un parti qui se forge discrètement une image compétitive, sans prendre position sur les enjeux majeurs du Québec ni sur les questions secondaires. En théorie, si Milliard s’exprime très peu, les chances du parti de remonter dans les sondages seront étrangement accélérées.

En substance, toute avance que les libéraux pourraient gagner dans les prochains sondages, si elle se concrétise, se construira petit à petit. Le dernier sondage Léger place le PQ et le PLQ au coude à coude à trente-trois pour cent. Parmi les électeurs francophones, les libéraux ont gagné quatre points et s’établissent désormais à vingt-trois pour cent.

Je suivrai de près les prochains sondages. Mon point d’interrogation reflète le pourcentage de francophones qui soutiennent le PLQ : j’ai hâte de voir les sondages de cet été. Je pense qu’ils seront décisifs pour déterminer l’écart entre le Parti québécois et le Parti libéral du Québec. À suivre !

习近平正在为生存而战，他的偏执已达到顶峰。

必须承认习近平的非凡特质：他是一个不择手段的斗士，为了保住自己在中国共产党内的地位，他将不惜一切代价。对习近平而言，目的再次证明了手段的正当性。一旦他察觉到哪怕一丝不忠或公开倒戈的迹象，他就会利用反腐运动，将对手和盟友一并边缘化或清除。

与此同时，中国的谣言工厂正热议着一种猜测：习近平的一些最亲信的助手和密友要么已经倒戈，要么正处于倒戈的边缘。可以理解，这让习近平感到不安——这还是轻描淡写的说法。当然，我们不应过分轻信谣言。然而，如果那些与军工复合体有关联的人突然在神秘情况下死亡或失踪，也不会令人感到意外。据说，习近平对出售给伊朗的武器系统的表现感到非常愤怒。这彻底打乱了今年入侵台湾的宏伟计划。在这起丑闻之后，习近平深知大陆在这样的战争中胜算并不大。

在政治领域，据称近期接连爆出的腐败丑闻与习近平身边的亲信有关。地方官员似乎被当作替罪羊。这些免职与近期在解放军、国家安全或警察部队内部发生的案例形成了鲜明对比。这些倒台者既有保守派，也有改革派。这无异于给习近平一记响亮的耳光。再加上温家宝的突然公开露面，足以说明当前权力斗争的严重程度。即便处于攻势，习近平也不可避免地被迫转入守势。以下比喻最能说明这一局面：试想习近平及其盟友是“萨德”、“箭”式、“大卫投石索”、“爱国者”或“铁穹”等导弹防御系统的化身。他们必须完美无缺，而“太子党”、改革派和保守派只需一次决定性的胜利。难怪有人说，习近平的神经如今已绷紧到了崩溃的边缘。

Xi Jinping is fighting for his survival, and his paranoia has reached its peak.

One must acknowledge Xi Jinping’s exceptional qualities: he is a fighter who will stop at nothing, and he will spare no expense to retain his position within the Chinese Communist Party. For Xi Jinping, the end once again justifies the means. The moment he detects even the slightest hint of disloyalty or open defection, he will use the anti-corruption campaign to marginalize or eliminate both opponents and allies alike.

Meanwhile, China’s rumour mill is abuzz with speculation that some of Xi Jinping’s most trusted aides and confidants have either already defected or are on the verge of doing so. Understandably, this unsettles Xi Jinping—and that is putting it mildly. Of course, one must not place too much credence in rumours. However, it would come as no surprise if individuals with links to the military-industrial complex were to suddenly die or disappear under mysterious circumstances. It is said that Xi Jinping is furious over the performance of the weapons systems sold to Iran. This has completely derailed the grand plan to invade Taiwan this year. In the wake of this scandal, Xi Jinping is acutely aware that the mainland is not guaranteed victory in such a war.

In the political arena, the recent cascade of corruption scandals is reportedly linked to confidants close to Xi Jinping. Local officials appear to have been made scapegoats. These dismissals present a stark contrast to recent cases within the People’s Liberation Army, state security or police forces. Those downfalls bear the hallmarks of both conservatives and reformists. They constitute a direct slap in the face for Xi Jinping. Coupled with Wen Jiabao’s sudden public appearance, this is sufficient to illustrate the full extent of the current power struggle. Even whilst on the offensive, Xi Jinping has inevitably been forced onto the defensive. The following analogy best illustrates the situation: imagine Xi Jinping and his allies as the embodiment of missile defence systems such as THAAD, Arrow, David’s Sling, Patriot or Iron Dome. They must perform flawlessly, whilst the ‘Princelings’, reformists and conservatives need only one decisive victory. No wonder it is said that Xi Jinping’s nerves are now stretched to the breaking point.

Maïté Blanchette Vézina rejoint le PCQ.

Eh bien, oui et non. L'ancienne ministre de la CAQ, députée de la circonscription de Rimouski, sera la candidate conservatrice dans La Peltrie. C'est un faux pas. La Peltrie recouvre une partie des circonscriptions fédérales de Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier et de Louis-Hébert, la dernière comptant une population plus élevée. Traduction : Blanchette a de très bonnes chances de perdre dans La Peltrie si Milliard et le PLQ font un retour en force. D’un autre côté, il faut noter qu’à l’heure actuelle, le PCQ est en tête dans La Peltrie, selon les sondages. Il aurait été plus judicieux de la présenter dans la circonscription de Chauveau ou de Portneuf. 

Dans la région de la Capitale-Nationale, ce n’est pas un hasard si les dix circonscriptions où le PCQ a obtenu ses résultats les plus impressionnants lors des dernières élections sont représentées par des députés du PCC au niveau fédéral, à l’exception d’une partie de Louis-Hébert et d’une section de Beauport-Limoilou.

D’après les sondages, on évoque la possibilité de remporter entre cinq et quinze sièges dans cette région et ailleurs. Cependant, tout dépendra du résultat de la CAQ. À moins d’un désastre pour le parti au pouvoir, le PCQ risque de ne réaliser que des gains minimaux à l’Assemblée nationale. Pour obtenir le statut de parti, un parti doit remporter douze sièges ou obtenir vingt pour cent des voix lors des élections. Le PCQ recueille entre quatorze et dix-huit pour cent des intentions de vote dans la plupart des sondages. Cela confirme que Duhaime a encore du travail à faire pour faire entrer le parti à l’Assemblée nationale avec le statut de parti. Il devra nécessairement mettre le paquet lors de la prochaine campagne électorale. 

Sur une note personnelle, en l’absence d’une forte vague de soutien pour le PCQ dans la région métropolitaine de Québec, je pense que Blanchette Vézina ne sera pas élue dans la circonscription de La Peltrie. La vraie question est : qui l’emportera, le PLQ ou même le PQ ?

NDP: The Liberals Are Writing Off Avi Lewis.

You know what I think about conventional wisdom. Most of the time, it's at least partially wrong or total bullshit. The Liberals, masters of hubris, have already discounted the NDP. They'll continue the seduction campaign aimed at the party's MPs. The argument goes like this, to no one's surprise: the newly elected Avi Lewis is far too left to lead the NDP back to party status.

I don't share that view. A fresh face can do wonders in politics, provided that the average Joe and Jane do not consider the party's positions as being way out there or plain whacko. So, do I expect Lewis to mostly hold the line and not go full Leap Manifesto? Yes, I do.

Lewis knows that for the NDP to become relevant again, not to mention regain party status, pragmatism has to be at least the order of the day over the short to medium term. So far, Carney has been more sizzle than steak, which creates an opening for the NDP. No question that if Carney gets a renewed trade deal with the United States, it will be a tough go for the NDP to regain party status. However, I don't see many new or improved paper-based trade agreements. So, there's an opportunity there. Look to Lewis to go against his basic instincts and make the most of it. After all, the party's political survival likely depends on that, especially given that thirty percent of eligible voters did not cast a ballot in this leadership race. 

PLQ : L'arme secrète de Milliard : Charles Milliard !

Pour évaluer la valeur d'un homme ou d'une femme politique, il faut apprendre à connaître la personne qui se cache derrière le rôle. Et c'est là que réside la force naturelle et authentique de Milliard : c'est quelqu'un qui a sillonné le Québec de long en large plus que quiconque. Il connaît très bien le porte-à-porte et est généralement bien accueilli, même par ceux qui n'ont pas d'affection particulière pour le PLQ. Charles est tout sourire et chaleur humaine. Il est « No Drama », pour reprendre l'expression américaine. C'est un gars décontracté qui surfe sur la vague de la modération et de la compassion. Son choix de devenir pharmacien a marqué un tournant naturel pour lui.

Les Québécois auront une décision importante à prendre en octobre, et le public ne semble pas à la recherche de bouleversements majeurs. Ils semblent satisfaits de vivre dans notre société telle qu’elle est : pas de grands projets pour devenir un pays, et encore moins pour endurer une bataille sans fin entre la gauche et la droite. Ceux qui veulent faire la leçon aux autres seront de moins en moins les bienvenus, surtout à l’approche du jour J cet automne.

Ce n’est pas un hasard si le PQ est en perte de vitesse avec un chef déterminé à tenir un référendum dès son premier mandat au gouvernement. S’il est vrai que 70 % des Québécois ne veulent pas de ces enjeux, eh bien voilà : une opportunité naturelle pour Milliard et les libéraux. 

Contrairement au scepticisme naturel de la population francophone à l’époque de l’ancien chef, les Québécois semblent ouverts au discours de Milliard sur les grands enjeux au Québec. Il n'a pas d'historique à Ottawa. Il est chef pour vous. Sur le plan personnel, il possède les mêmes qualités qu'Éric Duhaime, sans la rhétorique controversée de la droite. Pour Milliard et, dans une certaine mesure, pour Duhaime, le débat politique est un jeu d’addition, c’est l’inverse qui se produit lorsque PSPP prend la parole. Il est clair que le chef du PQ est son talon d’Achille. 

Auparavant, on tenait pour acquis que le PLQ n’avait aucune chance de revenir au pouvoir. Aujourd’hui, il faut admettre que si Milliard mène une bonne campagne, il pourrait nous surprendre à la manière de Jack Layton lors des prochaines élections. Cette campagne sera remportée par le parti qui séduira les électeurs « purs laine ». Rien de moins. PSPP a déjà le soutien d’au moins un tiers des électeurs, mais le reste semble se jouer entre le PLQ et le PCQ. On verra quelle sera la dynamique des trois principaux chefs au Québec. PSPP et Duhaime ont remporté la mise dans leurs camps respectifs. Milliard, quant à lui, sera en mode d'expansion, avec la tâche de convaincre . On ne devrait pas sous-estimer Milliard. Cette élection semble avoir la saveur de celle de Lesage-Johnson. Reste à voir qui sortira vainqueur. Mais quoi qu’il en soit, une période de changement régnera au Québec à partir d’octobre prochain.

Le débat de la CAQ à Laval : comment gagner la bataille mais perdre la guerre.

Parfois, avoir été journaliste porte ses fruits. On développe un certain sens de la communication, de la recherche et de la mise en contexte : ce sont les points forts de Drainville. Dès le début, il a tenté, avec politesse et tact, de présenter Fréchette comme une tour de gelée, se pliant au vent le plus populaire après une éternité d’indécision et d’incertitude. Aux yeux des observateurs, il semblait évident que sa campagne était principalement axée sur Christine la girouette. Une bonne stratégie pour marquer des points, mais clairement insuffisante pour remporter la course. Vous avez des doutes sur Fréchette ? Eh bien, me voici, prêt à prendre la relève de Legault. 

Le seul véritable succès de cette stratégie a été d'enclencher la colère de la technocrate ; jusqu’à présent, elle ne semblait pas à la hauteur pour s’engager dans un débat et une discussion plutôt animés sur les enjeux politiques du Québec. À la suite de ces attaques, Fréchette a retrouvé ses repères émotionnels, laissant derrière elle l’impression d’être sortie d’une chaîne de montage de robots, un peu comme Stephen Harper. 

C’est bien beau que Drainville soit un bon débattant, mais il lui manque la qualité la plus précieuse pour une campagne à la direction réussie : un soutien solide d’au moins une pluralité des membres. Ce n'est pas un secret que Bernard n’est pas très populaire parmi les députés, encore moins parmi les membres du parti. C’est un peu similaire à l’approche de Pierre Poilièvre, si l’on compare ses chiffres à ceux de ce dernier auprès du grand public. Bref, la CAQ ne peut pas remporter d’élections avec Drainville à sa tête. Voilà la triste réalité.

Quant à Fréchette, elle manque un peu de confiance et de chaleur charismatique nécessaires pour inaugurer une nouvelle ère de renaissance pour la CAQ. Elle est là pour sauver ce qu’elle peut, rien de plus. Il est fort probable qu’avec Fréchette comme cheffe, la CAQ ne se dirige pas vers l’extinction. Elle aura rempli sa mission, mais sans conserver le pouvoir. Les technocrates possèdent très rarement, au fond d’eux-mêmes, la passion brûlante requise pour reconquérir le Québec. Fréchette manque de la fougue nécessaire pour convaincre politiquement un peuple qui semble avoir déjà décidé que l’heure de la CAQ sera bientôt révolue. 

13 avril 2026 : la dernière chance pour Pierre de prouver qu’il est un véritable chef et d’assumer la responsabilité de ces défections.

Il est temps d’arrêter de tourner autour du pot : nous avons perdu trois députés parce qu’ils n’appréciaient pas le style autoritaire du chef, ni la manière dont lui et l’OLO géraient les relations avec le caucus. Point final. Quiconque pense que d’Entremont, Ma et Jeneroux ont rejoint les libéraux par amour pour Carney et son gouvernement se fait des illusions. C’est absurde. Ils sont passés chez les libéraux parce que c’était leur seule option pour rester députés à long terme. 

Mettons les choses au clair dès le départ : le PCC n’a absolument aucune chance de l’emporter dans les circonscriptions d’University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest et Terrebonne. Les récents sondages suggèrent que les libéraux rafleront les trois circonscriptions. Naturellement, comme je m’y attendais, Outhouse a prouvé qu’il ne connaissait rien à la politique québécoise et n’a pas réussi à bloquer un candidat du PCC à Terrebonne. Cette décision – ou plutôt, cette absence de décision – garantit une victoire libérale dans la circonscription. Bravo, les gars ! En politique, on ne vaut que par sa dernière décision, et Outhouse a échoué à ce test, tout comme Pierre. 

En conséquence, les libéraux de Carney obtiendront enfin la majorité à la Chambre des communes et, en théorie, contrôleront le Parlement pendant les quatre prochaines années. Cela signifie que l’heure de vérité a sonné pour Pierre : seuls neuf des derniers sondages donnent aux libéraux une avance à deux chiffres. Pendant ce temps, Angus Reid leur donne une marge de huit points. Le meilleur sondage, datant d’il y a quelque temps, plaçait Pierre en tête du classement des « meilleurs premiers ministres », avec 44 % d’opinions favorables. Aujourd’hui, sa cote de popularité s’établit à -59 %. Prenez un moment pour bien en prendre la mesure. Et voici le coup de grâce : 49 % des Canadiens veulent qu’il démissionne, ce qu’il ne fera pas.

Je félicite Pierre d’avoir modéré son style de leadership, d’être plus ouvert à la flexibilité et aux nouvelles idées, ainsi que pour son approche inclusive récente en matière d’accès aux médias. Cependant, ces changements admirables ne feront pas évoluer ses résultats dans les sondages. C’est comme passer des lunettes aux lentilles de contact. Cela ne fait pas pencher la balance en sa faveur.

Donc… S’il veut avoir une chance de passer le cap des prochaines élections — qui auront probablement lieu l’automne prochain, étant donné que Carney et les libéraux sont tellement avides de pouvoir qu’ils viseront un mandat majoritaire des électeurs —, Pierre devra aborder publiquement ses nombreuses lacunes et s’engager à faire mieux à l’avenir. Outhouse ne lui dira pas ça, mais moi, je le ferai. Sinon, son caucus deviendra encore plus imprudent et frustré, et cela ne peut que se terminer par une remise au goût du jour de la Loi sur la réforme et, au final, par son renvoi sur la même voie qu’O’Toole. Étant donné que ses subordonnés ont joué un rôle actif dans l’éviction d’O’Toole, tout comme votre serviteur, ce serait ironique si cela finissait par revenir comme un boomerang pour mordre Pierre aux fesses.

Bref, Pierre, les mois entre aujourd'hui et l’automne prochain sont ta dernière chance de redresser la barre du Parti conservateur. Profites-en au maximum, sinon tu disparaîtras inévitablement de la scène politique en tant que chef.

Et pour aider tous mes collègues conservateurs à digérer ce qui précède, voici le dernier sondage Léger. Lisez-le, de préférence un verre à la main.

Politique canada : le PLC atteint 49% des intentions de vote - Léger

13 April 2026: Pierre’s last chance to prove he's a true leader and to take responsibility for the defections.

It’s time to stop beating around the bush: we lost three MPs because they didn’t like the leader’s command-and-control style, nor the way he and the OLO managed relations with caucus. Full stop. Anyone who thinks that d’Entremont, Ma and Jeneroux joined the Liberals out of love for Carney and his government is deluding themselves. That’s bullshit. They switched to the Liberals because it was their only option to remain MPs over the long term. 

Let’s make one thing clear from the outset: the CPC has absolutely no chance of winning in the ridings of University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest and Terrebonne. Recent polls suggest the Liberals will sweep all three ridings. Naturally, as I expected, Outhouse proved he knows nothing about Quebec politics and failed to block a CPC candidate in Terrebonne. That decision—or rather, the lack of one—guarantees a Liberal victory in the riding. Great going, guys! In politics, you’re only as good as your last call, and Outhouse has failed that test, along with Pierre. 

As a result, Carney’s Liberals will finally secure a majority in the House of Commons and, in theory, control Parliament for the next four years. This means the moment of reckoning has arrived for Pierre: only nine of the latest polls show the Liberals with a double-digit lead. Meanwhile, Angus Reid gives them an eight-point edge. The best poll, from some time ago, placed Pierre at the top of the ‘best prime minister’ rankings, with 44% in favour. Today, Pierre’s rating stands at -59 per cent. Take a moment to let that sink in. And here’s the coup de grâce: 49 per cent of Canadians want him to resign, which of course he won’t do.

I commend Pierre for toning down his leadership style, being more open to flexibility and new ideas, and for his recent inclusive approach to media access. However, these admirable changes will not shift his poll numbers. It’s like switching from glasses to contact lenses. It doesn’t tip the scales in his favour.

So… If he wants any chance of making it through the next election—which will likely take place next fall, given that Carney and the Liberals are so power-hungry they’ll be aiming for an elected five-year majority mandate—he’ll need to publicly address his many shortcomings and commit to doing better in future. Outhouse won’t tell him that, but I will. Otherwise, his caucus will become even more reckless and frustrated, and that can only end with them dusting off the Reform Act and, ultimately, sending him down the same path as O’Toole. Given that his subordinates played an active role in ousting O’Toole, just like yours truly, it would be rather ironic if that ended up coming back like a boomerang to bite Pierre in the ass.

In short, Pierre, the months between now and next fall are your last chance to right the Conservative ship. Make the most of it as party leader, or you will inevitably disappear from that position on the political scene.

And to help all my fellow Conservatives digest the above, here is the latest Léger poll. Read it, preferably with a drink in hand.

Carney's Liberals climb to 49% and lead by 14 points - Leger

More Proof That Trump Is A POS.

As if we need any more. No wonder God has him pissing and shitting himself every day. Payback time, baby. But this fucker never learns:

"Robert Mueller just died. Good, I'm glad he's dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people!"

Trump had told us a while back he didn't expect to make it to heaven. He got that one right, for a change.

Débat de la CAQ à Québec : match nul.

En bref, avec trois cents personnes dans la salle, ce débat s’adressait à ceux qui étaient déjà convaincus, aux partisans les plus fervents de la CAQ. Je ne pense pas que Drainville, ni même Fréchette, soient à la hauteur pour sauver ce gouvernement. Ce gouvernement a fait son temps. 

Cela dit, ce fut un débat sincère et de grande qualité : je trouve Fréchette trop hésitante, trop évasive sur les grands enjeux auxquels le Québec fait face. Elle semble être en perpétuelle réflexion. Cela ne suffit pas pour diriger le Québec. Drainville, quant à lui, est catégoriquement attaché au projet du troisième lien. Il nous rappelle qu’un projet plus à l’est risque d’entraîner des coûts inacceptables. Il accorde la priorité à la conservation et à la protection de l’eau, notre ressource la plus précieuse, mais il est complètement à côté de la coche en ce qui concerne l’extraction du gaz naturel au Québec, notamment sur l’île d’Anticosti et ailleurs. À mon avis, il est temps de se tourner vers le gaz naturel comme mécanisme de transition vers une énergie propre et renouvelable. Cela dit, cette transition s’étalera sur plusieurs décennies et ne se fera certainement pas au cours des dix prochaines années. Drainville ignore complètement cette alternative.

En effet, la CAQ est là pour maintenir une course à trois dans tout le Québec et une lutte à quatre dans la région de la Capitale-Nationale. Telle est la triste réalité de la situation. Nous verrons si les électeurs seront prêts à permettre à la CAQ, même avec un nouveau chef, de sauver sa réputation et son honneur lors des prochaines élections générales cet automne.

The 2027 Taiwan Invasion Pipe Dream.

Xi Jinping is a troubled figure, a man who's ruthless in his quest for total power, who will do whatever it takes to keep it. For Xi, the end definitely justifies the means, as we saw with the take down of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. An extremely dangerous foe indeed. It's rumoured that Xi is isolated in Beijing, having become increasingly paranoid and concerned for his personal safety. As a result, he purportedly sleeps in a fortified bunker.

That brings us to the erratic thinking behind Xi's apparent desire to invade Taiwan, which American national intelligence agencies have publicly predicted could occur as early as next year. Xi's motives are apparently two-fold: an argument suggests that he could easily consolidate power during wartime, with the country rallying to his cause if military victory appeared possible over the medium term. The second reason is more personal and dubious: it's my understanding that Xi believes in the search to extend lifespans and that that also comes into the mix. Taken together, it remains likely that an invasion is only a question of when in Xi's mind. 

However, Xi's removal of Zhang and Liu did not play out as expected. One needs to understand why Zhang was adamantly opposed to invading Taiwan. He recognized that it was insane, given the American commitment to the island. Zhang knew that the Americans could never opt out, even if already engaged in other war operations at the same time. For Trump, or any other president, Taiwan remains a national-security red line in the Indo-Pacific theatre. The other critical motive behind Zhang's opposition to an invasion is the elephant in the room: the open secret in army circles about endemic corruption in the military leading to inoperable and faulty defence equipment and systems. That sad reality, taken from a Chinese perspective, was demonstrated for all the world to see in Iran. Put another way, Xi can't count on military hardware and systems to operate as designed, or even function at all in a wartime environment. That's the brutal reality that Xi faces. It's somewhat ironic that the incorruptible Zhang was the messenger about all of the rampant corruption that has plagued the military for decades. 

Then there are other PLA considerations: it's no coincidence that the likely deaths of Zhang and Liu have not been publicly announced. The longer we wait for news about their fate, the more likely they were summarily executed by national security or police forces. That can only mean trouble for Xi. Eventually, the news will come out, and it won't be to Xi's advantage. When it does, that will seal the deal on the impossibility of invading Taiwan. From that point on, Xi will be at his most vulnerable and could be taken down by the military. In the interim, Xi will undoubtedly do all he can to take back power, but will it be enough? 

Finally, keep in mind the role that the CIA is playing in China, not only egging on and likely in some cases fomenting dissent and unrest in the main cities, but also conceivably playing a hand in the explosions heard across China. Those explosions can't be pinned on the PLA, because if the military were the source, they would have moved against Xi by now. No wonder Xi wants Trump in Beijing on March 31st. The end result, from his perspective, is likely to be disappointing to say the very least. It's a red horse year, and it is rapidly galloping further into the distance. That likely portends ill for the future. Wen Jiabao recently asked the trillion-dollar question. All of China and the rest of the world are waiting for the final answer.

2027年入侵台湾的想法纯属幻想。

习近平是一个心理失常的人物，为了追求绝对权力不择手段，为了死守权力不惜一切代价。对他而言，目的绝对能证明手段的正当性，正如我们在他处理张有夏和刘振利一事中所见。他确实是一个极其危险的对手。有传言称，习近平在北京处于孤立无援的境地；他变得越来越多疑，并对自身安全深感担忧。因此，据说他睡在加固的地下掩体中。

这迫使我们思考习近平表面上想要入侵台湾背后的特殊心态；美国情报机构已公开预测，此事最早可能于明年发生。习近平的动机似乎有两方面：一种观点认为，一旦开战，他便能轻易巩固权力；若中期内有望取得军事胜利，全国人民将团结在他周围。第二个原因则更为个人化且颇具争议：据我所知，习近平相信延长寿命的研究，这也已成为他考量因素之一。综合来看，在习近平的思维中，入侵台湾恐怕只是时间问题。

然而，习近平撤换张和刘的举措并未如预期般展开。必须理解张为何如此坚决反对入侵台湾。他深知，鉴于美国对台湾的承诺，此举纯属疯狂之举。张某深知，即便当时美国正忙于其他军事行动，也绝不会袖手旁观。对特朗普或任何其他总统而言，台湾始终是印太地区内的一条国家安全红线。张某反对入侵的另一个关键动机，是军方内部众所周知的“房间里的大象”——即军队内部根深蒂固的腐败，已导致国防装备和系统无法正常运作且存在缺陷。从中国的角度来看，这一严峻现实已在伊朗展现在世人面前。换言之，习近平无法指望军事装备和系统在战时环境中按设计运行——甚至根本无法运行。这就是习近平面临的残酷现实。讽刺的是，正是张某——一位正直清廉之人——揭露了困扰军队数十年的猖獗腐败。

关于解放军还有进一步的考量：张和刘可能已经死亡，但尚未被官方宣布，这绝非巧合。我们等待他们下落的消息越久，他们被国家安全部门或警方处决的可能性就越大。这无疑是习近平的一大麻烦。消息终将传出，而相关背景肯定对他不利。届时，入侵台湾的可能性将彻底破灭。从那一刻起，习近平将处于极其脆弱的境地，甚至可能被军队罢黜。在此期间，习近平无疑会竭尽全力夺回控制权，但这够吗？

最后，请注意中情局在中国扮演的角色——它不仅在火上浇油，某些情况下甚至可能在主要城市煽动异议和动乱，而且很可能与全国各地听到的爆炸声有关。这些爆炸并非解放军所为，因为如果军方是幕后黑手，他们早就对习近平采取行动了。难怪习近平正寄希望于特朗普3月31日抵达北京。从他的角度来看，结果恐怕至少会令人失望。今年是马年，而这匹红马正疾驰远去。这很可能预示着未来将发生不祥之事。温家宝最近提出了一个价值万亿的问题。整个中国，乃至全世界，都在等待最终的答案。

Why Floor-Crossers Could Destroy The Liberals After Pierre Is Gone.

Carney is likely too clever by half. The Liberals are rolling on the floor from serial orgasms as they decimate CPC ranks one MP at a time and make a first breach in the NDP dyke. Rumours are swirling around Ottawa that most of the NDP caucus will be next: a mass defection sometime after Lewis becomes leader. I'll believe that one when I see it, but back to Carney: the PM better be praying already for a majority because if the GIC drops the writ next fall with the Liberals in search of an increased majority, they may not get it. That strategy barely worked for Ford. In my book, Kory blew it, but I digress.

Voter attitudes have a way of turning on a dime, especially during bad economic times: an Angus Reid Institute poll had the CPC leading by a historic twenty-nine points in late December 2024. So, even Carney is not immune to sudden and dramatic political disruption. Imagine a scenario in which the Liberals are returned in a fall election, but with a minority. Unlikely now, but not improbable. Were the CPC to change leader in the wake of that vote, that could prove to be a huge opening for the Conservatives. Add to that evolving perceptions on floor-crossers: most voters are OK with that right now, but if the economy goes into recession or turns drastically south, Canadians could quickly get religion and sour on Liberal shenanigans as being anti-democratic and opportunistic. That won't happen if Pierre is still the leader, just in the same way that Justin was unable to dig up a comeback issue. But add a fresh CPC leader to the mix, and it becomes a new ballgame, one that likely would highly favour the Conservatives. Depending on who becomes leader, it could even be a return to the Mulroney good times. Laugh if you want to, but remember that Trudeau's departure proved that nothing is ever impossible in politics. With Carney, the Liberals came back from near-certain decimation.

 

Why CPC Floor-Crossers Will Inevitably Bring Down Pierre.

I like my MP, but he made a mistake by saying publicly that there will be no more turncoats. He's wrong. It's an open secret in Ottawa that at least two more CPC MPs are in active discussions with the Liberals. Those conversations are a blatant vote of non-confidence in Pierre's leadership. Notice how the OLO has failed thus far in spinning the defections in our favour, and that won't change going forward.

At first, MPs only had to contend with horrible Best Prime Minister numbers and most of caucus were prepared to play the waiting game and purse their lips. However, that is slowly changing now that the top-line party generic number is consistently in negative double digits. Anyone who thinks that things will get better after the Liberals pull a majority out of the hat is dreaming. MPs are not yet prepared to vote on Pierre's leadership, but that day will come in about a year, when emotions come into play. By then, the party number will still not have begun to turn around, and MPs will want to vote their pocketbook first -- in other words, save their hides in the next election. So, Pierre will go bye-bye, thanks to the Reform Act. I have an idea who will be our Long, but it won't be Chong.

Unfortunately, Pierre has no good options: either he gets the heave-ho next year, or Carney calls a snap fall election, and he loses his job right after the vote. He should be preparing himself psychologically for either eventuality because both scenarios are carved in stone. His leadership is already on its last legs. He just doesn't know it yet. The only remaining open question is exactly when the deed gets done.

CPC: Doing All We Possibly Can To Get Carney To A Majority.

I don't know about you, but I want to find out why three CPC MPs crossed to the Liberals. I'm not buying any of their bullshit about how great Carney is and how he'll keep the country together. I also want to know what the dynamic was in caucus that MADE them cross. Finally, did the leader play a role in their departures? As if I can't guess. I have no proof, but my gut is screaming that if anyone else were the leader, they would still be in caucus, period. 

Now, let's move on to the latest strategic disaster: I'm calling for the immediate termination of all party and OLO Quebec advisers. Their role was to give the leader sound advice that would reduce the chances of the Liberals winning in Terrebonne, and they did the exact opposite -- the recommendations they made allowed for a Conservative candidate in that riding. What a fucking ship of fools! Our job was to pull the CPC candidate, thereby allowing the Bloc to win the riding with a larger majority than it would otherwise have received. For the brainless in CPC circles, we needed a BQ win, and by keeping our candidate in place, we've increased the chances of another Liberal win. Can anyone be more stupid than that? As a result, the Bloc is unlikely to win as the CPC vote siphons off just enough votes to almost guarantee a Liberal win. Great going, hopeless morons. You've done it again. Enjoy yourselves in opposition for at least another four years... Carney is bent over, dying with laughter. Hope he doesn't pull a muscle.

UPDATE: Natural Resources Portfolio.

It comes as no surprise to anyone who invests in or trades natural resource stocks that we're in a bull market, with the latest component to join the party being energy stocks. Other sectors, such as nickel and zinc, have yet to join the party as subsets. As you know, in this sector, bull markets are always punctuated by one to three trough periods during which commodity prices can fall by as much as 50%. That's when I'm in heaven buying QUALITY juniors, intermediates, large-cap and royalty stocks, while the amateurs and tourists are shitting their pants and selling quickly. 

For purposes of this post, I will give you an update on all stocks that have led to at least a twenty-percent gain during the first trough, meaning as of last Friday:

Lavras: 790

Abra: 576 - 341

Thor: 479

Edge Copper: 389

Greenhart: 370

Discovery: 315 - 313 - 310

Osisko Metals: 314

Integra: 280

1911: 265

Radisson: 247

Uranium Energy: 236

Troilus: 235

Elemental: 224

Maple: 223

Cavvy: 186

Triple Flag: 169 - 53

Mako: 165

Nexgen: 156

Vox: 153

Atomic Eagle: 143

Equinox: 139

SPC: 139

White Gold: 136

Metalla: 135

Churchill: 131

Silver One: 130

Stillwater: 130

Homeland Nickel: 128

Mundoro: 126

Sprott Physical Uranium: 125

Empress: 125

Guanajuato: 122

Shamaran: 121

Talon: 114

Orogen: 102

Excellon: 99

Coppernico: 96

Euro Sun: 95

Paladin: 90

Eco Atlantic: 87

BTU: 84

Reconnissance Energy Africa: 82

Buffalo Potash: 79

Silver Tiger: 78

Sable: 76

Generation Mining: 73

Minera Alamos: 69

Bannerman: 66

Solgold: 62

Paladin: 61

B2: 61 - 36

Nexgold: 58

Ongold: 57

Galloper: 56

Cartier: 53

Epic: 53

Scottie: 52

Enquest: 49

Metals Creek: 38

New Found: 34

RTG: 33

Galleon: 32

Wallbridge: 32

Royal Gold: 31

Meren: 30

Gran Tierra: 29

Melkior: 27

Source Rock: 26

Pasofino: 26

Cambria: 23

Orecap: 23

Arc Resources: 20

Dans le blanc des yeux : Anaida Poilièvre Galindo.

Quelle personne remarquable ! 

Petition To Award The Order Of Canada To Don Cherry.

Some Conservatives are backing a petition to award the Order of Canada to Don Cherry. Others, from the province of Quebec, are opposed. One camp says that because of his accomplishments in hockey, he should receive the honour, while another says his remarks about francophones and Quebec should be an automatic disqualifier. Cherry was recently awarded the Order of Ontario.

I see some merit in both arguments, but to settle it, I want to apply the Ahenakew Test: his remarks were judged by the OC Advisory Council as having brought disrepute to the Order of Canada, and GG Clarkson stripped him of his membership.

In both cases, I do not wish to cite the controversial remarks, but Cherry's constitute a pattern. In this case, the AC would have to examine the comments in question and then recommend to the GG whether the award should go ahead. 

I have read the texts of the offensive remarks, and they fail to meet the standard for the award. I have not seen any clarification or contrition coming from Cherry, which is surprising. 

So, in the end, I stand with most of the Quebec Conservative MPs. This should be a teaching moment for the party because, quite obviously, English-speaking CPC MPs don't get it, not one bit. That leaves the leader in a tough spot, having apparently already signed the petition. Ouch. We do indeed still live in a world of three solitudes. What a terrible shame for the country.

CPC: We're Done Now.

It's depressing, and it won't get any better: Idlout crosses from the NDP. Add to that the certainty of the Liberals winning both Ontario byelections, and that's it for us.

The Liberals already have that majority in spirit. And it gets better: Pierre is only 35 points behind Carney, and Carney is planning to prorogue right after the byelections. It's going to be a long three years.

Charles sur Tout le monde en parle.

Charles a fait une bonne impression et n'a pas tardé à sourire. C'est un bon début.

The sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference are currently underway.

As with all state affairs in China, the rumours circulating throughout Beijing and indeed the entire nation could set a world record – some true, others false, but most impossible to verify. In the realm of political intrigue, none can rival the Communist Party, whose masterful strategizing leaves the CIA trailing in its wake. They remain an enigma within another enigma, a mystery shrouded in riddles.

Attempting to discern precisely who is in favour and who has fallen from grace is futile. Despite Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli having been purged by Xi Jinping, the Two Sessions lists still include them as delegates. This indicates the military is awaiting the final verdict on their fate, and that waiting period is drawing to a close. Their fate remains unknown, yet whatever outcome unfolds portends ill for Xi Jinping. Had they been executed, why delay announcing their deaths? Xi likely fears that the military might stage a coup to overthrow him if the generals perished at the hands of his own security forces or police.

Xi Jinping, still in power, appears precariously vulnerable: his decision to sit alongside Party delegates at the opening ceremony of the Two Sessions signals his political fragility and uncertain future. Compounding this, Xi has ceased leaving Beijing, reportedly holed up in a reinforced bunker, exposing his palpable anxiety.

The reformist faction, led by Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Liu Yuan, appears to have lost its nerve. They have forgotten the iron law that hesitation leads to demise, a lapse that could prove fatal. The failure of both reformists and the princelings to strike decisively constitutes a grave error. Prioritizing the Party's survival above all else is tantamount to inviting Xi Jinping to execute another flanking manoeuvre. This time, opposing Xi may cost them their lives. The conservatives share equal blame—rumours suggest Zeng Qinghong is privately mediating the rift between Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping, effectively offering Xi a lifeline. Can Xi outmanoeuvre his opponents and consolidate power? Time will tell, but the brutal reality is that time is the enemy of the reformists. Xi will fight for survival at any cost—the stakes for him and his family are simply too high.

And what of Li Qiang? Has he begun distancing himself from Xi Jinping? If so, this would be a perilous game indeed. He would do well to remember the fate that befell Li Keqiang while swimming.

全国人民代表大会和中国人民政治协商会议的会议正在举行。

如同中国所有国事，流传于北京乃至全国的传闻足以创下世界纪录——有虚有实，但多数难以求证。在政治阴谋领域，无人能出共产党之右，其运筹帷幄之高明令中情局望尘莫及。他们始终是谜中之谜，谜团裹挟着谜题。

试图准确辨别谁得宠谁失势实属徒劳。尽管张友夏和刘振立已被习近平清洗，但两会名单仍将他们列为代表。这表明军方正等待对其命运的最终裁决，而等待期已近尾声。无人知晓他们生死，但无论结果如何，都预示着习近平将遭遇厄运。若二人已遭处决，为何迟迟不公布死讯？习近平恐怕担忧，若将领死于其安保部队或警察之手，军队可能发动政变推翻他。

仍掌权的习近平看似岌岌可危：他选择在两会开幕式上与党代表同席而坐，昭示其政治脆弱性与未来的不确定性。雪上加霜的是，习近平不再离开北京，据称蜷缩在加固的掩体中，暴露了其显而易见的焦虑。

以胡锦涛、温家宝和刘源为首的改革派似乎丧失了胆识。他们忘记了犹豫者必亡的铁律，这一疏忽可能致命。改革派和太子党未能果断出击，构成重大失误。将党的生存置于一切之上的做法，无异于邀请习近平再次实施侧翼包抄。这次，反对习近平可能要付出生命的代价。保守派同样难辞其咎——传闻称曾庆红正在私下调解胡锦涛与习近平之间的矛盾，实际上为习近平提供了救命稻草。习近平能否智胜对手并巩固权力？时间自会给出答案，但残酷现实是：时间对改革派而言是敌人。习近平将不惜一切代价求生——对他及其家族而言，赌注实在太高。

李强又如何？他是否已开始与习近平保持距离？若真如此，这将是场危险的游戏。他最好记住李克强游泳时遭遇的命运。

Carney Shows His True Colours And Likely Voters Are Busting Down Doors To Support That Cynicism.

What a pathetic joke. Carney has once again shown his real political inclination: he, like every other living and breathing federal Liberal, is only about power, getting and holding on to it by using every trick in the book. Hence, the byelections in University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne will take place on April 13.

The party of no principles has reached a new low by recruiting a former Ontario NDP deputy leader, Doly Begum, as their candidate in Scarborough Southwest. Some people are calling this turn of events shocking. Not me. I know exactly who the federal Liberals are: willing to send Mom and Dad down the river just to stay in power. Naked political ambition is all they think about. Typically Liberal.

So here are the Liberal plans: they will put unprecedented resources into Terrebonne, knowing that if they take that riding, they will have secured a majority, provided that the next speaker is not a Liberal. Terrebonne will be a referendum on Carney and Blanchet. Quebecers will decide whether the Liberals get a majority. The party that turns out its vote best will win. My money is on the Bloc. In addition, if Outhouse is worth his salt, he'll convince Poilièvre not to run a candidate in the riding, thereby increasing the chances that the Liberals won't win. You know what they say: the enemy of my enemy is at minimum a temporary ally. 

If the LPC lose Terrebonne, they will pick up the pace to try and get more Conservative floorcrossers. And this time, they will go after former CPC cabinet ministers. In short, they will do an Emerson, offer it to anyone who agrees to sit as a Liberal. 

Finally, if neither of these options bears fruit, they will create the circumstances that lead to a fall election. It could be a poison pill or simply a call on Canadians to give the Liberals a majority. 

A three-pronged strategy to get that majority. Carney won't give up until he controls the Commons. And so far, few voters are prepared to storm Parliament Hill to prevent it. 

PP Has To Contend With Bipolar Political Disorder.

Poor Pierre, it can't be easy dealing with bipolar politics. It all started with the euphoria that followed Calgary, once it became clear that the membership was united. Then came the divisions within the caucus and the recent departures that Conservatives consider a betrayal. That's true, but each departure had a snowball effect and showed everyone that the leader's relationship with the caucus was not always harmonious. The OLO often had its thumb on the scale, which irritated dissident MPs, some of whom have now left and others who are still considering their political future. 

Let's dare to look at the polls: yours truly has poopooed the prevailing political wisdom that the last election and the next one will be mainly, if not exclusively, about Trump. In a word, that's bullshit. Canadian electoral trends are almost always linked to likability and strength of character. That's how recent giants like PET, BM, JC and SH won elections. You either liked them or you didn't, but you had confidence in their ability before checking the box.

That's where Pierre fails: many voters don't like him or his anti-woke agenda. They see it as disrupting the mosaic of national politics. You know, the Canadian way of going along to get along. Is this a fair assessment of PP? Perhaps not, but ultimately, politics is about perception, not reality. The Pierre I know and see has mellowed: he is much more confident since getting married and becoming a father, and the sacred sacrament has done wonders for him: he smiles easily now and, with age, no longer takes himself as seriously as he did when he was pegged as Pierre the bomb thrower. Family life has done him good. He is also much less hostile and antagonistic towards the mainstream media, those feared and biased enemies of most conservatives. So... is this perception entirely accurate? The obvious answer is no. But that's how politics works. In short, Pierre is waiting for Carney to slip up, screw up or blow up. And yes, that could still happen, but ultimately, you can't count on that to win an election. Time isn't yet up for the leader, but it is running out fast in the hourglass. Pierre needs to rethink his strategy if he wants to win. He will have to dig deep within himself to find qualities and fresh inspiration leading to a winning formula. Outhouse can't win the next campaign for him. Only he can do that. Over the medium term, we'll see if he can make the most of the situation.

CPC: very slim chances of forming the next government, according to the Léger poll.

Carney's Liberals climb to 49% and lead by 14 points - Leger

PCC : très faibles chances de former le prochain gouvernement, selon le sondage Léger.

 Politique fédérale : écart de 14 points entre le PLC et le PCC - Léger

Léger : Un seul sondage ne signifie pas le début d'un bouleversement.

Le dernier sondage Léger montre que l'avance du PQ n'est plus que d'un point : trente et un pour cent, le PLQ est à un point derrière, le PCQ à quinze pour cent, la CAQ à treize pour cent et QS à neuf pour cent.

Ce qui m'intéresse, c'est la répartition parmi les francophones à travers le Québec, et à cet égard, l'écart est désormais de vingt points entre le PQ et les libéraux, avec trente-neuf pour cent pour le Parti québécois. Cependant, le PLQ mène de neuf points avec trente-neuf pour cent des voix parmi la population âgée de 55 ans et plus. 

En résumé, plus le PQ mobilise son électorat dans les différentes régions du Québec, plus il a de chances de remporter les élections. À ce stade, le PLQ ne peut pas faire la même observation, étant donné que le parti est surreprésenté dans la région métropolitaine de Montréal.

Comme son prédécesseur, Milliard devra faire campagne sur le terrain et démontrer ses profondes convictions. Les électeurs auront à évaluer la stature du chef et son programme. Ils rechercheront un soutien inconditionnel au Québec et une stratégie qui permettra le renouveau et le développement séquentiel de la nation. Ils rechercheront leur champion, ce qui signifie que la confiance sera probablement accordée à un homme plutôt qu'à un parti. Les récentes performances de PSPP à cet égard ont peut-être ouvert la voie à Milliard. Il devra jouer habilement ses cartes pour gagner la confiance des francophones. Ce n'est pas impossible, mais pour l'instant, la tâche semble presque titanesque. 

JFK: Truman Nails The CIA To The Cross.

The Washington Post
December 22, 1963 - page A11

Harry Truman Writes:
Limit CIA Role
To Intelligence

By Harry S Truman
Copyright, 1963, by Harry S Truman

---

    INDEPENDENCE, MO., Dec. 21 — I think it has become necessary to take another look at the purpose and operations of our Central Intelligence Agency—CIA. At least, I would like to submit here the original reason why I thought it necessary to organize this Agency during my Administration, what I expected it to do and how it was to operate as an arm of the President.
    I think it is fairly obvious that by and large a President's performance in office is as effective as the information he has and the information he gets. That is to say, that assuming the President himself possesses a knowledge of our history, a sensitive understanding of our institutions, and an insight into the needs and aspirations of the people, he needs to have available to him the most accurate and up-to-the-minute information on what is going on everywhere in the world, and particularly of the trends and developments in all the danger spots in the contest between East and West. This is an immense task and requires a special kind of an intelligence facility.
    Of course, every President has available to him all the information gathered by the many intelligence agencies already in existence. The Departments of State, Defense, Commerce, Interior and others are constantly engaged in extensive information gathering and have done excellent work.
    But their collective information reached the President all too frequently in conflicting conclusions. At times, the intelligence reports tended to be slanted to conform to established positions of a given department. This becomes confusing and what's worse, such intelligence is of little use to a President in reaching the right decisions.
    Therefore, I decided to set up a special organization charged with the collection of all intelligence reports from every available source, and to have those reports reach me as President without department "treatment" or interpretations.
    I wanted and needed the information in its "natural raw" state and in as comprehensive a volume as it was practical for me to make full use of it. But the most important thing about this move was to guard against the chance of intelligence being used to influence or to lead the President into unwise decisions—and I thought it was necessary that the President do his own thinking and evaluating.
    Since the responsibility for decision making was his—then he had to be sure that no information is kept from him for whatever reason at the discretion of any one department or agency, or that unpleasant facts be kept from him. There are always those who would want to shield a President from bad news or misjudgments to spare him from being "upset."
    For some time I have been disturbed by the way CIA has been diverted from its original assignment. It has become an operational and at times a policy-making arm of the Government. This has led to trouble and may have compounded our difficulties in several explosive areas.
    I never had any thought that when I set up the CIA that it would be injected into peacetime cloak and dagger operations. Some of the complications and embarrassment I think we have experienced are in part attributable to the fact that this quiet intelligence arm of the President has been so removed from its intended role that it is being interpreted as a symbol of sinister and mysterious foreign intrigue—and a subject for cold war enemy propaganda.
    With all the nonsense put out by Communist propaganda about "Yankee imperialism," "exploitive capitalism," "war-mongering," "monopolists," in their name-calling assault on the West, the last thing we needed was for the CIA to be seized upon as something akin to a subverting influence in the affairs of other people.
    I well knew the first temporary director of the CIA, Adm. Souers, and the later permanent directors of the CIA, Gen. Hoyt Vandenberg and Allen Dulles. These were men of the highest character, patriotism and integrity—and I assume this is true of all those who continue in charge.
    But there are now some searching questions that need to be answered. I, therefore, would like to see the CIA be restored to its original assignment as the intelligence arm of the President, and that whatever else it can properly perform in that special field—and that its operational duties be terminated or properly used elsewhere.
    We have grown up as a nation, respected for our free institutions and for our ability to maintain a free and open society. There is something about the way the CIA has been functioning that is casting a shadow over our historic position and I feel that we need to correct it.

__________________________________________________________________________

BLOG COMMENT: This op-ed is a public document, but interestingly enough, the CIA chose to deem it classified, ensuring that it was not "released" by them until December 15, 2004. It is a precursor to The Crow's so-called justification for the killing of Kennedy:

O'Dowd.: Central Intelligence Agency - Statement of Policy.