Saturday 30 October 2021

G20: Putin And Xi Conspicuously Absent.

Putin being absent is no surprise given the bad relations that Russia presently has with the United States. Russia has pretty much been living in a deep freeze since the annexation of Crimea -- and add to that the disastrous vaccination rates in Russia. So, there's plenty of reasons for Putin to avoid the collective cold shoulder awaiting him at the G20.

But unlike Putin, Xi has even more legitimate reasons not to leave China: first and foremost, his continuing feud with Jiang with rumours of an assassination attempt having already taken place against Xi. One was under the impression that Xi had already consolidated power sufficiently not to be at political risk. Add to this the increasing hardline rhetoric on Taiwan and the ever-increasing flyovers of Taiwan's air defense zone. That's why Biden's verbal representations have been unambiguous -- even if walked back later by the White House -- because Washington D.C. takes the Chinese invasion possibility more seriously than it has ever before.

Will internal infighting in China lead to reckless military adventurism against the so-called renegade province? Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail otherwise what would initially be a tight regionally focused conflict could rapidly spiral down into a larger conflict, more than likely drawing in at least Japan and perhaps other area players. 

So, at minimum, we're living in politically trying times with the rest of the G20 tasked with a sacred obligation: maintain diplomatic and economic channels and work to reduce tensions wherever they appear. That should be the G20's focus. God help the rest of us if it somehow fails in its mission and ends up as just another fruitless League of Nations.


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