CPC: The Good, Bad And Ugly About Being Vanilla.

Well, a vanilla anything is thoroughly loved by almost everyone. That person wins every federal election in the theoretical political games. Applies here, applies in the States. Trouble is, polling should never be based upon results pitting an incumbent prime minister or president against an unknown other guy or gal. One of the best examples for an unelected person is Hillary: remember most of her polling numbers as first lady? Exactly. Once she got into the arena and won, she never achieved polling numbers as high as she had as first lady.

In this country, our invisible Conservative leader has already won the next election. How many times have I seen this kind of polling before? Too many. So it becomes all about the canvas and the quality of the paint. 

This brings us to Pierre Poilièvre. He's rolling the dice and running on issues he believes are future election winners. When he talks about the cost of living, the housing crisis, the irresponsible digitization of money by the Bank of Canada (and the Federal Reserve), he's on solid ground. But when he supports the unvaccinated, possible investment in crypto and protesters, some of whom have committed illegal acts, that's where his slippery slope begins. Team Poilièvre thinks they can win with all of this. I'm not as confident to put it diplomatically.

The next election will be all about listening and government helping people where it can and to the extent that our fiscal capacity permits. Poilièvre has that part down pat. But on likability and powers of persuasion to really move the needle in his direction with undecided voters, well, there's still plenty of room for improvement there. 

I would argue that Trudeau's 2015 canvas was comprehensive enough to almost assure a win. Poilièvre's on the other hand still lacks the royal jelly that's needed to cement him into the PM's job. Mulroney naturally had that jelly. Harper came to eventually develop it. It remains to be seen if Poilièvre can successfully tweak his game plan, thereby returning the CPC to power come the next election. It would be a mistake to count him out at this juncture. However, in the end, Poilièvre himself will be the sole architect either of political failure or newfound unity. Only the fates know how this one will eventually turn out.