G20: Where's Xi?

Sometimes, Xi must wish he was back slopping the pigs. I know I wouldn't want his job, what with him having to deal with the late Jiang's security services' repeatedly trying to off him and what not. Something tells me that when Jiang died, perhaps he did not necessarily finally go as voluntarily as people may have been led to believe. If so, interesting payback.

This is an illustration of Scenario 1 where Xi is facing a rear-guard action to remove him. It explains why changes have been made at the top as Xi increasingly stacks the deck with allies. But is it really working? What about all those reports of Xi going missing for extended periods of time? Is that because of more threats to his life? Hard to say.

There certainly is at least grumbling within the party and rumours of plans to remove him. If accurate, no wonder he decided to stay in Beijing. Taking an airliner suddenly may not have been a good idea, or perhaps he might be overthrown while abroad. Again, who knows. Xi has been consolidating his leadership, but is he really secure? Time will tell.

That brings up to Scenario 2 which is a logical extension of the first one. What if there's a leadership litmus test and its name is Taiwan? Will internal politics necessarily force Xi to take an uncompromising stand on the renegade province? To consolidate his leadership, will he have to take some form of military action against Taiwan?

I think it's safe to say that relations with The West and the United States, in particular, are probably at an all-time low, post-Deng. This is exceedingly dangerous and raises the bar of global instability. So, a conflict with the United States could come over or in the Taiwan Straits and more than likely, it would come somewhat accidentally due to some kind of unforeseen provocation by either side. 

It's not exactly peaches and cream time in Beijing, especially with the Chinese economy already taking quite a hit. The masses are, at the very least, discontented and that could also threaten Xi. No wonder Xi either decided not to or was forced not to be a consistent enthusiast of the travelling skies. Definitely glad I'm not in his shoes.