European Baby Steps Towards Peace In Ukraine.

I'm all for Starmer, Macron, Merz and Tusk travelling to Kyiv, but ending the war in Ukraine will take much more than a symbolic political presence in the capital. On the military front, the ten Northern European-nation Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), which includes the UK, has agreed to partner with Ukraine in the cause of peace. It's a small start. But real military change in Europe can only happen if Ukraine receives a territorial commitment from two other continental military structures: the European Union-led Rapid Deployment Capacity, a force of five thousand under British command mandated to protect EU citizens and of course, NATO's own Allied Reaction Force (ARF) which is charged with maintaining the territorial integrity of NATO states. The NATO Force Model (NFM) is the alliance's way to go going forward. 

I've long argued that the politicians couldn't see the big picture and are far too tentative regarding security guarantees provided to Ukraine. It goes without saying that were Ukraine to be invited to join NATO, for example, the war with Russia would end the next day. Putin would have absolutely no appetite to take on NATO proper. That would be a proposition of rapidly diminishing military returns and a war that Russia could not win. Even Putin knows that to resort to tactical nukes would mean escalating to a war posture that would not be in the best interests of Russia. Millions of Russians and other Europeans would die rapidly. 

Ukraine's allies are pushing for a 30-day ceasefire, one that the Kremlin seemingly has no desire for unless Moscow's conditions around monitoring and maintaining such a ceasefire are met. Russia has begrudgingly come around to a ceasefire now that it's also being pushed by Trump, no doubt much to Putin's astonishment and annoyance.

In the final analysis, is Ukraine a region of EU interest or a theatre of NATO operations related to the alliance's collective defence? Now, that's the crunch-time question, isn't it? In fact, Ukraine already enjoys Horizon Europe associated membership. That's one small step away from full EU membership. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration strenuously opposes Ukraine joining NATO. 

So, threading the needle and providing Ukraine with adequate security guarantees will not pass through NATO membership. In short, increasing military links with the EU would perhaps be sufficient to ensure that Ukraine's territorial integrity is either restored or at least solidified on nation-state territory it presently holds. Without that, the stalemate on the ground likely will continue for the foreseeable future. Ukraine and Russia both need an out. Time will tell if they ultimately get one.