The Carleton Message: Here's How The CPC Loses Again To Carney And He Gets A Majority.

The Carleton ballot was the longest ever seen in Canadian history. That told you at least two things: to begin, that many, many, many, people simply hated Pierre's guts either due to his personality, leadership style or policy choices. Secondly, that the left was solidly in line and determined to defeat Pierre in a riding that he held for twenty years.

Part of the loss was due to redistricting. That played a not inconsiderable role, but it wasn't by any stretch of the imagination the decisive factor while Pierre blew up in his own riding. 

The leader has indicated he's staying on and will run in an Alberta byelection. Fair enough. But Pierre needs to recognize the obvious: he and his platform weren't centrist and moderate enough to win government in Canada. It's as simple as that. Real hard right parties do not and will never form government in this country going forward. So, Pierre has a choice. He can tact to the center where most of the votes are and move party policy toward the middle, or he can stay the same and run next time with a comparable platform. Make no mistake that the percentage of the vote we won this time was not even close to being the majority of the popular vote, which we won two times before. In short, the next election construct, whenever it comes, will be this: the CPC either adapts and moves in the direction of a moderate view of the world, à la Ford or Houston, or we stay the same and lose again. See how that works?

If we stay the same policy-wise, then all it will do is likely give Carney his majority next time. Remember that Carney will either call an election or create a crisis and use it as a pretext to call an election when the Liberals know they can win big. So, again, Pierre can adapt and reposition the party or almost inevitably prepare to lose during an election at a time of Carney's choosing. 

Carney wants a majority. So expect an election no later than a year from now and probably before. You know, another new and stronger mandate from the voters to deal with Trump sometime within the next twelve months. Forget the bullshit of two years or longer. The election is coming, and a lot faster than most people think.