Why The Conservatives Are Damned If They Do And Damned If They Don't.

Let's start with context: Ignatieff supported Harper in 2009 for about a year. The Liberals later withdrew supply and confidence and defeated the government. The end result: Harper's re-election. This is where we are now: the Conservatives backed the Liberals' major projects bill, sending it to the Senate. When Parliament comes back in the fall, what will happen then? Will Poilièvre support government bills on a piecemeal basis or more generally? Either way, the lack of opposition implies consent at least in most voters' minds. Put another way, Conservative acquiescence suggests that the government is doing a good job across the board, whether the party actually believes that or not. It's a little like death by a thousand cuts. 

The alternative is to find a dance partner and defeat the government at the Conservatives' pleasure. This is the ultimate high-risk strategy. It would trigger an election, one that would likely return the Liberals with a majority. Talk about two unpalatable alternatives for a government in waiting. 

In my mind, we've got to get to spring before this thing blows up. At that point, the Conservatives withdraw supply and confidence or wait for better polling numbers in the fall. But either way, an election will come next year. It's like rolling the dice and coming up snake eyes. Picking our poison will be the order of the day.