Helping Out The National Post.

[Fred] "DeLorey said Poilièvre must work out precisely why the party lost another election [our third in a row if we don't count Harper's loss in 2015] and what needs to be done differently before voters go to the polls again."

We lost because no one likes Pierre. What needs to be done differently? Get a new leader to at least have a fighting chance in next fall's election. 

Why Canada Has Trouble Coming Out White In The Wash.

Few use the term confederation to describe our political structure these days, especially given that economic might rests principally in two jurisdictions: Ontario and Alberta. In point of fact, this economic and political arrangement is indeed a federation, one in which economic jealousy is far more powerful than political resentment. Much noise is made about so-called Laurentian elites, read Quebec, dominating our federation, but in economic terms, nothing could be further from the truth. 

At its most raw, separatism is a pocketbook issue where an argument is made that economic reality can be vastly improved by going it alone. Those who choose to be the most candid and realistic are forced to acknowledge that, for most of our history, Canada's interests have equated with Ontario's interests. The green-eyed monster lives and thrives with each announcement adding to the economic importance of that citadel on a hill otherwise known as Toronto. The urge to go solo stems from there. 

A concrete and pointed example can be found in the recent decision taken where Canada will host the multilateral Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB) and guess what, the traditional divides and cleavages are alive and well as Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia battle it out for the nod. Lucky Carney. No matter how you slice and dice this one, it won't end well for the federal government.

Ain't federalism just grand! More resentment and unending bickering ahead. 

The Master Plan: The Fix Is Already In.

Can you say Brookfield Infrastructure Partners? I'm shocked.

TheUndertakerTM Is Going To Go Out There And Fight For Canada.

Now we know that the country is really doomed. He'll do as good a job with this file as he did in the last election. God help us.

Trump Really Loves And Respects Women!

Kristi Noem

Pam Bondi

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Tulsi Gabbard

Trump's really showing us who he is, as if we didn't already know it. 

Both Starmer and Poilièvre Will Be Brutally Removed.

These two are bona fide idiots: in Starmer's case, it's particularly galling given the fact that over sixty percent of Labour members want him out! And so he will inevitably be removed with gusto by the party. In Poilièvre's case, he's already gone crazy: he actually tells people with a straight face that he's the future prime minister. Ha, ha, ha, what a fucking joke. This guy is completely delusional. He will use any excuse, real or imagined, to hang on. So far, our caucus is nothing but a bunch of cowards. I don't call him TheUndertakerTM for nothing, given that politically he's precisely that. If he leads us into the fall election, our party will get royally creamed. So, for me, it will be a delayed nirvana rather than an immediate gratification. In either case, Pierre will be gone for good, and I, for one, will celebrate with a bottle of champagne. That's what I like about being me: I either win now and he leaves, or I win this fall when he loses his second election and then finally goes. He won't be truly missed by anyone. Well, maybe by Byrne! LOL.

Québec : Hésitation.

Sondage Léger :

PQ : 30%

PLQ : 28%

CAQ : 22%

PCQ : 11%

QS : 8%

Rien n'est acquis.

UK: Pressure Is Building For Starmer To Go.

He can't hold out much longer. After all, at least sixty percent of Labour members want him to go now. He is weighing his options and likely will announce his decision this weekend. Translation: he will resign once he finds a face-saving fig leaf. He has no choice if Labour wants to be competitive against Reform UK because right now, Reform will win the next election hands down, and Farage will become the next PM.

Nanos: More Of The Same.

LPC: 42%

CPC: 33%

NDP: 12%

BQ: 6%

GPC: 4%

Léger : Meilleur premier ministre.

Ne sait pas/Refus : 29 %

SPP : 22 %

Fréchette : 20 %

Milliard : 15 %

Duhaime : 8 %

Ghazal : 5 %

UK: Labour Members' YouGov Poll.

Burnham: 59%

Starmer: 37%

Liaison: No Surprise To Anyone.

TheUndertakerTM needs to start praying fervently. 

Liberals: 43%

Conservatives: 34%

New Democrats: 11%

Bloc Québécois: 6%

Greens: 2%

Politique québécoise : le triple dilemme qui confronte les politiciens.

Commençons par la plainte déposée par le PQ auprès du Directeur général des élections concernant l’élection partielle d'Arthabasca : il est allégué que le PCQ aurait dépassé le plafond de dépenses autorisé lors de cette campagne. De plus, il semble que les factures payées par le PCQ n’auraient pas été réglées à la juste valeur des services fournis. Il en va de même pour la location d’un local de campagne dans la circonscription pour la campagne d’Éric Duhaime. Le prix du marché pour l’achat du livre du chef du PCQ est également contesté. Il apparaît que les exemplaires du livre distribués gratuitement lors du porte-à-porte ont été achetés à prix réduit. Enfin, on allègue que des heures supplémentaires ont été payées lors de cette élection complémentaire sans preuve écrite suffisante permettant de justifier le paiement de telles sommes. Pour sa part,  Duhaime rétorque qu’il a sollicité au préalable l’avis du DGE concernant l’achat des livres et que tout le reste, en ce qui concerne les diverses allégations du PQ, a été effectué conformément aux règles et obligations de la Loi électorale. 

Quant au PQ et au PLQ, leurs dilemmes respectifs sont liés à l'appui des partis selon les sondages. Prenons, par exemple, le dernier sondage Synopsis : il place les deux partis au coude à coude avec 30 % de soutien chacun. La CAQ suit avec 18 %, et le PCQ tire derrière à 13 %, cinq points devant QS.

Les libéraux sont confrontés à deux problèmes : d’une part, le faible niveau de soutien parmi les francophones, d’autre part, la concentration extrême de leur vote dans la région du Grand Montréal. C’est pourquoi des changements dans la stratégie électorale s’imposent, car l’approche actuelle de Milliard est loin d’être acceptable pour renverser la tendance, étant donné que les résidents des régions pure laine considèrent le PLQ avec un mélange de méfiance et d’indifférence en tant qu’institution, en ce qui concerne les politiques linguistiques, éducatives et culturelles du parti. En bref, Milliard ne fait pas suffisamment d’efforts dans ces trois domaines qui demeurent cruciaux pour l’électorat québécois. Quant au PQ, son problème à deux tranchants est lié au référendum sur la souveraineté, une initiative impopulaire auprès du public. L’autre faiblesse concerne le style personnel du chef, à la fois trop dogmatique, franc et inflexible sur les questions politiques. En effet, ce dernier facteur est perçu comme un signal d’alarme par la plupart des électeurs. 

Dans un monde politique idéal, le choix serait « aucun des candidats ci-dessus ». Mais la triste réalité de la situation obligera les gens à choisir le parti le moins mauvais de tous, pour former le prochain gouvernement. Pour l’instant, le vent qui souffle en diminuant, tel qu’il se présente, reste favorable au PQ. Nous verrons si cette tendance se maintient le soir des élections.

UK: Starmer Looks Done To Me.

It's not one man who can save Labour, so...Burnham isn't a saviour in the making. He will likely be the party's candidate in the Makerfield byelection. But Reform UK could take the riding nonetheless. 

Meanwhile, Streeting has quit cabinet. Now, will he declare and take on Starmer? I think he will.

Nanos: TheUndertakerTM Does It Again!

He can't wait to lose that fall election, and HE will in Mulroney spades!

Nanos:

Liberals: 46%

Conservatives: 33%

New Democrats: 9%

Bloc Québécois: 5%

Greens: 4%

What's Good For Starmer Is Good for Poilièvre.

At least Starmer knows how to win an election...

UK: Mighty Glad My Name Isn't Starmer!

Looks like this is the end for Starmer: what a soap opera. 81 MPs are needed to trigger a leadership contest, and at this hour, they appear to have one more vote than they need. Over 90 MPs and 4 cabinet ministers have called for Starmer's resignation. 112 are backing Starmer, while another 100 want a leadership race delayed. Most significant of all is that 403 MPs have not taken a position, and that does not bode well for Starmer over the medium run.

No word yet on the meeting between Starmer and Streeting. Another interesting issue is whether Burnham will be allowed to contest a byelection, and whether he can win. Some argue that at this stage, no Labour seat is safe. Will he join Starmer's cabinet as a first step to that end?

It's a matter of timing now: will the race take place on Starmer's timetable or not? And will Streeting, Rayner, Miliband, Carns or Jones run? So far, only West is in.  

Why Is Pierre Still In His Job?

Liaison Strategies: 

Liberals: 44%

Conservatives: 33%

New Democrats: 10%

Bloc Québécois: 6%

Greens: 2%

Research Co.:

Liberals: 46%

Conservatives: 31%

New Democrats: 11%

Bloc Québécois: 7%

Greens: 3%

Daniel B. O'Dowd, R.I.P. (1961-2026)

Dan passed away peacefully at Saint-Sacrement Hospital today, thanks to MAID. We are so proud of him for his excellence and dedication to his profession. He was always ready to lend a helping hand to the downtrodden and those in need. He was a member of Kiwanis for many years and served as Lieutenant Governor at one point. He was also very active in the English-speaking community and, in 2015, was Grand Marshall of Quebec City's Saint Patrick's Parade.

Farewell, dear Twin, Brother and Friend. May you find happiness and peace in Heaven. 

Conservatives Supposedly "Prefer" Abacus Data and Angus Reid Institute.

I laugh heartily when fellow Conservatives go on and on all the way to boredom about the supposed skewed methodology at most polling firms. Right. Partisans and politicos are always the same: looking for a fig leaf justification that dismisses why most people can't stand them or their party. Yeah, it sure is the way methodology is done, that is, until the firms using that methodology come out with numbers showing that same party either newly or serially in the ditch. Give me a break. Mind you, I agree that methodology affects the numbers, but only at the margins. That factor alone, IMHO, is not enough to produce seriously inaccurate results. Others even argue that those two companies overpoll for the CPC. But that's a debate for another day.

And speaking of Abacus:

Liberals: 46%

Conservatives: 36%

New Democrats: 8%

Bloc Québécois: 6%

Greens: 3%

Well, surprise, surprise, there goes the fall election for the CPC. The PP Effect strikes again in its usual and predictable direction...

Canadian Federalists Are Crazy!

I mean, what the fuck are they smoking when it comes to the Alberta referendum? Most commentators are taking precisely the wrong tack when it comes to the provincial plebiscite: they're arguing that a way should be found to kill it.

First off, that's a deliberate and serious violation of the conditions of democracy and representative government. Secondly, as long as Smith's conditions are met, it's got to be a go. People must be able to have their say, and the result must be respected by all sides.

And then there's the huge elephant in the room that seems to escape most so-called sophisticated political commentators. If you don't hold it as promised, support for separation will immediately tick up, likely in waves. So, collectively, give your heads a serious shake. Conservation and the continuity of Canadian federalism more than likely depend on it.

Pierre Only Cares About Himself, His Salary And Eventual Pension.

Pierre doesn't give a shit about the party or your riding. All he cares about is his job, perks and privileges. That should be obvious by now, even to the most Kool-AidTM drinking Conservative MP or member. 

He's just like his idol, Justin Trudeau: he's planning to stay on even if that means losing the next election, which is exactly what it means. Pierre is another Trudeau who thinks that by divine right of kings, he can remain leader for as long as he sees fit. Well, sorry, no. We're sick of you, just like we were of Trudeau. You're nothing more than an undertaker-looking milestone around our party's neck, and you need to go yesterday.

Let's make things clear: you know perfectly well that you don't have what it takes to win an election against Carney. You really don't. Think of the party and caucus and leave before the soon-to-be ex-MPs finally have the guts to move against you using the Reform Act. As I continually remind our MPs, just like a broken record: it's either Poilièvre's hide or it's theirs, at least as far as fifty of our elected members are concerned. Move against Pierre now or wait for the inevitable reckoning this fall when Carney pulls the plug and gets a Mulroney-sized majority. Wake up now, suckers!

Fréchette : Il ne faut pas la sous-estimer.

Les choses commencent bien ! La CAQ renaît de ses cendres sous la direction de Fréchette. Elle s’impose d’emblée dans ses nouvelles fonctions, et je dois avouer que je la trouve sympathique et qu’elle maîtrise parfaitement ses dossiers. Waouh, c’est au moins le début de ce qui s’annonce comme un retour possible en force. Les sondages nous diront ce qu’il en est au final. 

Pour les partis d’opposition, le message est très clair : méfiez-vous de son talent. Fréchette est loin d’être un symbole du déclin politique de la CAQ. Elle sera, à tout le moins, une force redoutable lors des prochaines élections. 

Milliard : Il est en train de gâcher ses chances de devenir premier ministre.

Charles,

Tu dois, à tout prix, éviter de devenir le prochain Rodriguez – un homme qui s’est révélé incapable de faire preuve d’un minimum de bon sens dans cette affaire. À l’époque, je m’étais farouchement opposé à l’expulsion de Marwah du caucus et au maintien de cette suspension sous ta gouverne. Ce fut une erreur monumentale de ta part, une qui ne doit pas se répéter lorsqu’il s’agit des grands enjeux qui préoccupent les Québécois, en particulier les « pur-laine ».

Tu conviendras avec moi que si tu n’es pas capable de convaincre la majorité des Québécois francophones que tu es prêt à te battre bec et ongles dans l’intérêt du Québec – en particulier pour défendre et promouvoir la langue, la culture et la laïcité –, alors le PLQ n’aura aucune chance de former le prochain gouvernement cet automne.

Parlons maintenant de ton caucus : ses membres n’ont qu’un rôle consultatif. Ils n’ont pas de droit de veto sur les politiques du parti ni sur le prochain programme électoral. En d’autres termes, ce n’est pas aux Anglo-Québécois ni aux communautés culturelles de déterminer les politiques du PLQ. Et pire encore, en tant que chef, ce n’est pas à toi de te plier aux décisions collectives des députés, même si ces positions sont soutenues par une majorité au sein du caucus parlementaire.

C’est toi le chef, et ce que tu dis devient la ligne du parti. Point final. Tu dois donner aux opposants les plus acharnés une raison irréfutable de retrouver confiance dans le Parti libéral du Québec. Ni ton caucus ni tes membres ne sont en mesure de relever ce défi haut la main. Tout repose sur tes épaules. En bref, si nous perdons, ce sera à cause de toi. Si nous gagnons, ce sera grâce à toi.

Deuxièmement, tu dois comprendre que si tu ne réintègres pas immédiatement Marwah au sein du caucus, c’est fini pour le PLQ dès lundi prochain. Je me fiche complètement de ce que pensent tes députés : ce n’est pas une bataille d’ego au sein d’une aile parlementaire. Il s’agit d’une décision fondée uniquement sur le rapport du commissaire à l’éthique, rien de moins. Le rapport parle de lui-même et confirme la crédibilité de Marwah.

Ton talon d’Achille demeure un manque flagrant d’expérience politique. C’est à toi de prendre les grandes décisions et à ta députation d’en débattre, sans avoir le dernier mot sur ces politiques et enjeux auxquels est confrontée la nation québécoise. Si tu comprends cela, tu seras le prochain premier ministre, mais si tu te tiens à un processus décisionnel collectif beaucoup trop influencé par les communautés anglophones et culturelles, eh bien, tu ne le seras jamais.

C’est aussi simple que cela. Réveille-toi et assume tes responsabilités individuelles avec panache. Ton destin politique en dépend. Et surtout, ne deviens pas un autre Rodriguez.

Why Pierre Should Be Crying Every Night.

In short, I'm right, and caucus is wrong. What a bunch of fools:

Abacus:

54% approve of the Carney government while 29% disapprove.

51% approve of Mark Carney, while 29% disapprove. Only a 22-point lead.

44% DISAPPROVE of Pierre Poilièvre, while 37% approve. A seven-point lead.

CBC News Alberta:

65% favourable view of Mark Carney.

54% favourable view of Pierre Poilièvre.

Even in rural AB, Carney is ahead by 1 point.

Nanos:

Liberals: 45%

Conservatives: 32%

New Democrats: 11%

Bloc québécois: 6%

Greens: 3%

Liaison:

Liberals: 45%

Conservatives: 33%

New Democrats: 9%

Bloc québécois: 6%

Greens: 2%

Carney: The Gift That Keeps On Giving for LIBERALS...

Canada’s Carney is proving to be one of the most popular politicians ever.

Canada’s Carney is proving to be one of the most popular politicians ever

With each passing day and week, Pierre's grip on our party is loosening. The cold, stark reality is finally setting in and even dawning on CPC MPs. 

He will be gone soon enough. It's now only a formality, and a matter of when.

Jivani in DC: Pick Your Scenario.

Let's start with the least controversial scenario: Jivani and several other CPC MPs went to DC to create further dialogue in hopes of reviving CUSMA negotiations, which of late appear to have stalled. So far, the lead Canadian negotiator, LeBlanc, has been largely unsuccessful in making substantive progress in trade negotiations with the Trump Administration. But this interpretation falls apart for two reasons: the obvious one is the fact that the delegation was not headed by the leader. Secondly, Pierre was caught flat-footed. He and his OLO apparently were not informed about the DC visit. 

The next possibility is the Heseltine scenario: Jivani made the trip to raise his profile and broaden his American contacts because he is biding his time but is intent on challenging Poilièvre's leadership further down the road.  I view this as unlikely given how the last Liberal leadership race went for Freeland. Put another way, he or she who strikes the first blow inevitably doesn't become the leader. Lessons learned in the Canadian context.

The last scenario means setting the stage for the arrival of a black knight who will directly take on Pierre. Under those circumstances, a potential leader like Jivani would support the current one and only join the race if Pierre failed to win on a first ballot. In short, the Major-Hurd example. 

IMHO, this isn't the last act in TheJivaniExperienceTM. It's not a second beachhead, but it ain't nothing either. Likely more to come. Stay tuned.

Léger: Oh, It's Just Eleven Points.

No party has a membership more prone to outright delusional behaviour than mine: the CPC. It's such a hoot listening to your average Conservative supporter or member game the process surrounding a snapshot in time where polls reveal almost universally that the CPC is done as dinner when it comes to winning the next election. I concede that they have a point when the argument is made that methodology is an important factor that may skew poll findings to some degree. Well, yes, but even the pollsters who saw a tighter race did not see a CPC win in April of last year. To put it in elementary terms so that the average Conservative can get it: support wasn't there to win on election night, wasn't there a second time between then and now and won't be there on the next election night. 

Back in the old days of Hollywood, they called Bette Davis box-office poison, and that moniker applies in spades now to the CPC leader. Most potential voters did not like Pierre back when, cared for him even less on election night and don't want to have anything to do with him going forward. So, there you go. 

Caucus knows what they have to do and should just get on with it. Ditch him ASAP so we can have at least a fighting chance in the fall election, which seemingly no one sees coming other than yours truly. But it is coming. 

And for the record: LPC: 48%, CPC: 37%, NDP: 6%, BQ: 6% and GP: 2%.