To me, things are starting to look like a Republican iceberg, with most of what's next to come seemingly below the water line. You could also potentially call it the first break in the Trump dam. If you really want to know where it's at when it comes to caucuses and primaries, the thing to do is track local polls closely to see if the centre holds or if the sand is shifting.
The Iowa polls have been all over the place -- with Trump leading others with percentages as high as 67% (against Pence) and as low as 42% (three times, against DeSantis) -- but the latest poll from The Trafalgar Group has Trump leading DeSantis 42-16%, that's a twenty-six point lead. But the real story is the remaining 42%. They aren't yet moving as a block toward anyone else, but they don't want Trump either. Looks and smells like an iceberg to me.
Mind you, the national numbers aren't reflecting the change: Trump is ahead of his rivals by forty-six points in the latest CBS News/YouGov poll, which puts him at 62%.
As for the politicians, Christie is attacking Trump at every opportunity, telling reporters that Trump is a coward and scared of him. That's apparently why Trump will skip the debate stage next Wednesday. Meanwhile, Cassidy, who voted to impeach Trump in the second Impeachment trial, is calling on Trump to leave the race. Cassidy says Trump can't beat Biden, according to polling. He also doubts that if Trump was convicted, that the latter could then go on and win a presidential race.
And if all of this isn't enough, the icing on the cake is the supposed automatic disqualification from running for president as per the 14th Amendment. Only a fool wouldn't believe that January 6th wasn't an insurrection intent on keeping Trump in office, but there's potentially some wiggle room for Trump, whether he was an actual participant. Did he really engage in the insurrection? Well, he did call for people to go down to The Capitol and told them to fight like hell for their country. He never explicitly called for violence but was planning to go there himself until The Secret Service decided otherwise. So, in my mind, it isn't a lead pipe cinch linking Trump to the engagement process, but it isn't a totally unreasonable conclusion to draw either. Time and process will tell.
It's for sure that with a lot of legal balls in the air that that, in and of itself, doesn’t exactly strengthen Trump's grip on the nomination, so his re-nomination is not a certainty. Is it still probable? Sure it is, at least for now, but polls will ultimately tell the tale. Trump has to fear a massive coalescing around another candidate and IF that happens, then Trump likely will be done as dinner, much to the surprise of his most rabid and loyal supporters.
Keep your eye on the prize and watch for unexpected developments as the race unfolds. Sometimes, a debate performance actually changes the dynamics in a race while other times, a candidate has a good to great debate but then still loses. In short, anything, quite literally, is possible down the road. It remains to be seen if Trump is somehow once again destined to be the Republican standard-bearer against Biden. Don't take anything for granted. That's what the Iowa polling is telling us, at the very least.
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