Bye, Bye, Prigozhin.

Is this a surprise? Nope, not at all. I was expecting it from Day One, but now the fun will be trying to find fingerprints. Maybe the plane was shot down by Russian air defences and maybe not.  Could it be an accident? That's theoretically possible, but that's not likely to be what most people will think or assume. 

And if Putin is involved, does Prigozhin's untimely demise strengthen Putin's hand or weaken it? Well, the big positive is one less traitor that Putin has to deal with. Follows the death of several Russian generals recently. Sure, it sends a message, but that message is old hat. It's been sent so many times already that it has no practical effect in reality. That's why these deaths keep happening.

Does Prigozhin's death leave an impression of Putin being in control or losing control? Sure, in the short run, it consolidates his power by getting rid of a major adversary, but over time it diminishes Putin's hold on the leadership. Not a plan I would have advocated or pushed for. 

Putin has potentially gone out of his way to make 50,000+ Wagner Group enemies. Can all these people be corralled, much less controlled? I doubt it. So...some people will likely be gunning for Putin and looking for a way to get even. That's at least 50,000 fighters. If Putin is involved, this was a big strategic mistake. Why go out of your way to create a legion of determined enemies? To Putin, I would say, not good. His future could get interesting, fast.