Iran Attacks Israel.

Iran has struck Israel with a seeming combination of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. Interceptions have been happening over Jerusalem and likely other parts of Israel. Some have been made by various defensive systems, while fighter aircraft and warships from the United States, Israel and the UK are reported to have been involved.

The Iranian response, to many's surprise, hasn't been proportional. It's viewed as a deliberate escalation in the wake of the destruction of a building near the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. That attack killed seven officers of the Quds Force, including two generals. Israel hasn't claimed responsibility for that attack but is largely viewed as having been responsible.

Let's take a step back and ask why did Israel reportedly attack an Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria? Here's my bet: a direct command and control link between the Quds Force and Hamas before and on October 7th. Nothing else makes sense or probably served as a motive for the Israeli strike. 

But back to the Iranian attack: one might suggest that the disproportionate nature of the Iranian response is an indication of the instability of the Iranian regime. That could be why Iran went big. Clearly, Iran has grossly miscalculated if they expect this attack to be the end of it. 

For her part, Israel has no alternative but to respond in kind with something equally dramatic and probably far more decisive. So, the next shoe to drop is bound to be devastating to Iran. After all, Israel must respond to a de facto declaration of war. Iran, after the fact, wants to tamp things down. They also want the United States and its allies to stay out of it. Not a chance.

Netanyahu will strike back, perhaps later than sooner. It won't be pretty, given that Iran doesn't have the level of sophisticated defence systems that Israel has.

Are these the first innings of a new Middle East war? Probably.