This election isn't about Trump. It's about Biden and whether he can adequately do the job in a second term. Biden's run is ego-driven -- remember, he was supposed to be the president who would only serve one term. So much for that. Biden broke his word. In short, he likes the job and doesn't want to give it up, even if voters would rather have another person as the Democratic Party nominee. So, Biden's re-election effort is all about himself.
At least Biden isn't stupid: he's furiously prepping at Camp David for next Thursday's debate. Smart move. If he can command the policy agenda in the rough and tumble, he'll score points in the polls, but he can't make miracles given that he's so low in the presidential approval ratings already. His number is a record low, far below 50% for a presidential incumbent. So, it's already Biden's election to lose. If Biden performs badly or gets knocked off his marks by Trump, then Trump gains momentum with independents. But it won't be a knockout for Trump: the Bushes, Reagan, Obama and Trump all had bad debates in the past, but none of them were KO-ed after a lousy performance.
As for Trump, he already has nothing to lose. Everyone already knows he's an asshole most of the time, and not that many people care. Surprisingly. Cutting off Trump's microphone won't stop him -- he'll do everything he can to get under Biden's skin and knock him off balance. And if it works, Trump will consolidate his lead in the polls.
Finally, if it's a draw, no one will have any increased momentum coming out of the first debate. Probably the strangest election in American history where at least a plurality of the American people wanted someone else other than Biden or Trump to be a party's standard-bearer.
Ultimately, this race could be the next Bush v. Gore, and we all know how that turned out. Biden may win the popular vote but still lose in The Electoral College. Think of it, another four years of Trump in the White House. God help us.
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