Why CPC Floor-Crossers Will Inevitably Bring Down Pierre.

I like my MP, but he made a mistake by saying publicly that there will be no more turncoats. He's wrong. It's an open secret in Ottawa that at least two more CPC MPs are in active discussions with the Liberals. Those conversations are a blatant vote of non-confidence in Pierre's leadership. Notice how the OLO has failed thus far in spinning the defections in our favour, and that won't change going forward.

At first, MPs only had to contend with horrible Best Prime Minister numbers and most of caucus were prepared to play the waiting game and purse their lips. However, that is slowly changing now that the top-line party generic number is consistently in negative double digits. Anyone who thinks that things will get better after the Liberals pull a majority out of the hat is dreaming. MPs are not yet prepared to vote on Pierre's leadership, but that day will come in about a year, when emotions come into play. By then, the party number will still not have begun to turn around, and MPs will want to vote their pocketbook first -- in other words, save their hides in the next election. So, Pierre will go bye-bye, thanks to the Reform Act. I have an idea who will be our Long, but it won't be Chong.

Unfortunately, Pierre has no good options: either he gets the heave-ho next year, or Carney calls a snap fall election, and he loses his job right after the vote. He should be preparing himself psychologically for either eventuality because both scenarios are carved in stone. His leadership is already on its last legs. He just doesn't know it yet. The only remaining open question is exactly when the deed gets done.