Why Floor-Crossers Could Destroy The Liberals After Pierre Is Gone.

Carney is likely too clever by half. The Liberals are rolling on the floor from serial orgasms as they decimate CPC ranks one MP at a time and make a first breach in the NDP dyke. Rumours are swirling around Ottawa that most of the NDP caucus will be next: a mass defection sometime after Lewis becomes leader. I'll believe that one when I see it, but back to Carney: the PM better be praying already for a majority because if the GIC drops the writ next fall with the Liberals in search of an increased majority, they may not get it. That strategy barely worked for Ford. In my book, Kory blew it, but I digress.

Voter attitudes have a way of turning on a dime, especially during bad economic times: an Angus Reid Institute poll had the CPC leading by a historic twenty-nine points in late December 2024. So, even Carney is not immune to sudden and dramatic political disruption. Imagine a scenario in which the Liberals are returned in a fall election, but with a minority. Unlikely now, but not improbable. Were the CPC to change leader in the wake of that vote, that could prove to be a huge opening for the Conservatives. Add to that evolving perceptions on floor-crossers: most voters are OK with that right now, but if the economy goes into recession or turns drastically south, Canadians could quickly get religion and sour on Liberal shenanigans as being anti-democratic and opportunistic. That won't happen if Pierre is still the leader, just in the same way that Justin was unable to dig up a comeback issue. But add a fresh CPC leader to the mix, and it becomes a new ballgame, one that likely would highly favour the Conservatives. Depending on who becomes leader, it could even be a return to the Mulroney good times. Laugh if you want to, but remember that Trudeau's departure proved that nothing is ever impossible in politics. With Carney, the Liberals came back from near-certain decimation.