PP Has To Contend With Bipolar Political Disorder.

Poor Pierre, it can't be easy dealing with bipolar politics. It all started with the euphoria that followed Calgary, once it became clear that the membership was united. Then came the divisions within the caucus and the recent departures that Conservatives consider a betrayal. That's true, but each departure had a snowball effect and showed everyone that the leader's relationship with the caucus was not always harmonious. The OLO often had its thumb on the scale, which irritated dissident MPs, some of whom have now left and others who are still considering their political future. 

Let's dare to look at the polls: yours truly has poopooed the prevailing political wisdom that the last election and the next one will be mainly, if not exclusively, about Trump. In a word, that's bullshit. Canadian electoral trends are almost always linked to likability and strength of character. That's how recent giants like PET, BM, JC and SH won elections. You either liked them or you didn't, but you had confidence in their ability before checking the box.

That's where Pierre fails: many voters don't like him or his anti-woke agenda. They see it as disrupting the mosaic of national politics. You know, the Canadian way of going along to get along. Is this a fair assessment of PP? Perhaps not, but ultimately, politics is about perception, not reality. The Pierre I know and see has mellowed: he is much more confident since getting married and becoming a father, and the sacred sacrament has done wonders for him: he smiles easily now and, with age, no longer takes himself as seriously as he did when he was pegged as Pierre the bomb thrower. Family life has done him good. He is also much less hostile and antagonistic towards the mainstream media, those feared and biased enemies of most conservatives. So... is this perception entirely accurate? The obvious answer is no. But that's how politics works. In short, Pierre is waiting for Carney to slip up, screw up or blow up. And yes, that could still happen, but ultimately, you can't count on that to win an election. Time isn't yet up for the leader, but it is running out fast in the hourglass. Pierre needs to rethink his strategy if he wants to win. He will have to dig deep within himself to find qualities and fresh inspiration leading to a winning formula. Outhouse can't win the next campaign for him. Only he can do that. Over the medium term, we'll see if he can make the most of the situation.