Totalitarian despots tend to see themselves as military geniuses of the highest order -- just think of Hitler in Russia -- but they're far from it. Putin is no exception and will fatally miscalculate from the get-go.
A Ukraine invasion is no longer an if, it's now an almost inevitable when. Here's why. Putin wants Ukraine out of the western orbit and he wants that yesterday. He knows that can no longer be accomplished politically by the vote so military action is his only option.
Here's my take: when it comes, it will be a Blitzkrieg attack on three fronts: forces crossing into Ukraine from Russia, Belarus and Crimea. They will likely attempt a pincer movement to quickly overrun Kyiv.
An easy enough in but probably with an unexpected number of Russian conscript casualties. Putin thinks he has Biden on the run politically, and he's right but that's not seeing the forest for the trees.
That's not the real deal. Since 2020, Ukraine is a NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner and that's big news. When military push back comes from the West, the UK will take the lead given the especially close relations between London and Kyiv.
After all, it's MI6 who broke the news of the puppet players Russia plans to install in office once Ukraine has been taken.
It's no coincidence that Britain has already sent anti-tank weapons while the United States limits itself to ammunition.
In the end, it's London that will call all the shots in the defensive response and just like in two world wars, America will inevitably follow with the rest of NATO bringing up the rear.
So...Putin better be careful what he plans for: a quick win on the ground will sooner or later turn into the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and we all know how that one ended for The Kremlin.
How ironic will it be for him when Putin's misadventures in Ukraine ultimately lead to his political demise in Mockba.
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