Angus Reid: 50 to 37.

This is the way I like to dissect polls: who's ahead nominally and who's really ahead. To begin, this is a huge poll so it needs to be taken extremely seriously. Secondly, there's a debate about AR polls and how they possibly tend to over poll CPC numbers. I'm not qualified to support or refute that statement.

Now, back to the poll: it shows the CPC ahead in the nominal horse race and way ahead among men.

But, but, but, we trail badly with women -- who vote more reliably than men and who are by and large progressives. So, Pierre still has his work cut out for him to move that needle which the CPC hasn't done so far.

A plurality of Canadians support either the Trudeau Liberals or the NDP -- I can understand where diehard Liberals are coming from but geez, why anyone in their right minds would vote NDP after Jagmeet keeps selling himself to the Liberals is way, way, beyond me. But I digress.

So, what does polling generally say about women and climate change, the COVID-19 crisis and trucker protests? Where are women on inflation and a bad economy? I wonder what focus groups will ultimately reveal and whatever it is, we'll have to adjust our policy priorities accordingly in order to have a serious and clear shot at winning. Pierre seems to get that but can he bend sufficiently to make considerable inroads in the 905? We'll see.

So, burn that in our brains: it's 37 percent versus 50 and we need to move those numbers especially with voting women. That's the real big picture, not inflation or a bad economy. Those two issues alone won't sufficiently move those numbers for us. Period. In short, we won't win without women. We need to do what Harper did, at minimum, to win.