What Will Be The Pierre Principle?

This title is the ask of the decade: what will be Pierre Poilièvre's game plan to power, and will it work out spectacularly or blow up in his face? That doesn't depend on Byrne or anyone else. It depends on Poilièvre's own judgment and his strategic ability to play what's right to build further and continuous momentum until an election is called.

No doubt about it, Pierre is smiling right now: those ascending poll numbers are primarily based on two things: a crashing economy and increased inflation. Add to that Trudeau Fatigue, to put it politely, and you have the baseline for solid polling advances. But here's another factor that Team Poilièvre will never admit -- practically no one knows Pierre, who he really is and what he stands for -- he's basically a blank canvas in the minds of most Canadians, especially likely voters.

So, this is where things become politically dangerous: who gets to ultimately paint the canvas before and during an election, Pierre or the Trudeau Liberals? We need to get out front on that and solidly paint that picture ourselves. And far more importantly, we need to paint a picture that a Liberal room will find difficult or next to impossible to counter in Canadians' minds.

Do I see that solidly taking shape so far? Not really. Most of it will come from the totality of policy, and some from the company that the leader keeps. Pierre already knows that some of his policy will lead to the big payoff politically, while others need to be jettisoned yesterday as they already serve as a counterweight to his political momentum. Namely, truckers and vaccines. Opposition to vaccine policy and support for truckers are definitely not issues that will win us government. Far from it. Add to that the company he keeps at his rallies and events. Those attendees need to be seriously vetted before PP goes anywhere near an individual at an event. Know who the most prominent people are beforehand and know what makes them prominent, good or otherwise. In short, protect the leader from potential PR disasters that build anti-PP photographic momentum. And then comes putting aside one's own pride and ego and allowing the leader to publicly distance himself from the wrong people in a timely and definitive manner. That's crucial to putting out Liberal war room fires before they seriously get going.

Now, let's take a look at polling numbers: our party has been continuously ahead since the second week of August. I wasn't expecting that. Most polls have us in the lead between one and eight percent. And far more importantly, the three pollsters with the best consistent track record put us somewhat out front: Nanos by three points, Ipsos by five and Léger with a six points advance. That's momentum that's building.

Finally, I need to address conventional wisdom where supporters of a strong NDP jump ship to the Liberals in a campaign to STOP the Conservatives. It has happened repeatedly before. Again, much of this will be based on the look that PP will have built between now and the next vote. Right now, Pierre gets to shape the clay of his political face, or he can let the opposition parties do it for him. Scheer and O'Toole didn't get that. What about Poilièvre?