Midterms: The Incoming Tide Is Republican.

No question about that. Republicans will win big in the midterms up and down the ballot, largely due to independents, who've abandoned the Democrats. This thing has seesawed back and forth, but Republican momentum is now clear and perhaps unshakable: Walker and Oz are proof enough of that. 

The generic congressional polls show that the Republican tide may eventually turn into a landslide, but more than likely not a rout for Democrats. 

And then there's the terrible attack on Paul Pelosi. People will be appalled, disgusted, but will it ultimately move enough votes to mitigate or reverse the Republican trend? Who knows. It's the only thing not already baked into the cake.

RealClear Politics:

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Republicans (R)	Democrats (D)	Spread
RCP Average	10/12 - 10/27	--	48.0	45.1	Republicans +2.9
Data for Progress (D)**	10/26 - 10/27	1217 LV	49	45	Republicans +4
Trafalgar Group (R)	10/25 - 10/27	1089 LV	48	42	Republicans +6
Rasmussen Reports	10/23 - 10/27	2500 LV	49	42	Republicans +7
InsiderAdvantage	10/25 - 10/25	750 LV	48	44	Republicans +4

FiveThirtyEight:

Generic ballot, 2022

AVG.

Oct.26-27	1,217	LV	B Data for Progress		Democrat	45%	49%	Republican		Republican	+4
Oct.25-27	642	LV	B/C Tufts University		Democrat	48%	47%	Republican		Democrat	+1
Oct.25-27	1,089	LV	A- Trafalgar Group		Democrat	42%	48%	Republican		Republican	+6
Oct.23-27	2,500	LV	B Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research		Democrat	42%	49%	Republican		Republican	+7
Oct.24-26	1,014	RV	B/C Echelon Insights		Democrat	48%	45%	Republican		Democrat	+3