Netanyahu's Priorities: First, Second And Third.

The next opportunity to get to the promise land, to quote MLK, is 27 October 2026. That's the only definite in Israeli politics when legislative elections will be held. With that in mind, I would suggest that Netanyahu's plan is one, two, three.

FIRST: Political survival. Nothing comes ahead of this in Netanyahu's mind. Not the Gazan War or even Israeli and other foreign hostages. Bibi is all about staying in power as PM, and nothing he does is based on anything more significant than that. Notice how Gallant and Gantz were no-shows at Saturday's press conference. Netanyahu wanted them there, but they have bigger fish to fry and Bibi knows it. Each of them would like to replace him as prime minister. Tensions are rising over the war and hostages and with the Supreme Court 8-7 ruling that part of his judicial reform plan is unconstitutional, it's one more large thorn in Bibi's side. Nevertheless, Bibi is all about Bibi. That's how he survives. Polling, on the other hand, has not been kind, with up to 80% of Israelis wanting him to take personal responsibility for the war and resign. Significantly, only 64% want early Knesset elections, and Netanyahu is counting on that to stay in power. 

SECOND: War in Gaza. Major differences exist about tactics, the intensity of the fighting, Palestinian deaths, ceasefires, humanitarian pauses and non-precision munitions. Then there's the matter of who gets to rule Gaza post-Hamas? Netanyahu sees the war going on for "many more months", while Gallant and Gantz have their own ideas on all of the above. 

THIRD: Hostages. This is the wild-card. Granted that it's a net-positive for Israelis and especially families, but it isn't necessarily so for Bibi and his longstanding coalition partners. Potentially getting them all out is counterbalanced by why they were taken hostage in the first place. The law of hostage releases is one of diminishing political returns for him. Hamas and the other terrorist groups are not stupid. They know about the upward gradation scale. It's one thing to trade hostages for juveniles or low-priority prisoners in Israeli jails. It's quite another to release bona fide terrorists or murderers in order to secure the remaining hostages' release. 

The last thing to take into account, of course, is the nature of coalition-building in the multi-party Knesset. In most cases, governing coalitions follow seat changes in legislative elections. Put another way, it's likely going to be exceedingly difficult to oust Netanyahu as prime minister without resorting to early elections first and that is definitely not a given at this stage, if ever. So...Bibi may be able to hang on until fall 2026, unless Likud demands that he resigns, which is unlikely. 

Netanyahu, quite certainly, is a wounded duck. But everything is in the distinction. What he's not is a dead duck, and that is not inconsequential in Israeli politics. Don't count Bibi out just yet.