Des Moines Register Poll.

Is this a case of us not being able to see the forest but for the trees? I think so. To me, the numbers are misleading. First off, with Trump at 48%, every MAGA Republican is for Trump. Until they're not. The forest says Trump is under 50%. There's a meaning there and it could be significant. When Trump won the presidency, a lot of his vote was from shy or reluctant supporters.  Let's reverse engineer that: they say they're already rock solid for Trump but are they really? Maybe, maybe not.

Haley comes in at 20%, pushing Mister All 99 counties into third with DeSantis fading at 16%. Pretty much what I was expecting.

Then there's the weather: I still think Trump will take it but will it be over 50%? I don't think so.

Once we get to New Hampshire, can Haley win? I think she gets enough of an Iowa bounce to beat Trump in The Granite State.

Then it's a two-person race into South Carolina. They say they're for Trump there but we'll see.

Conventional wisdom is just that, so take about everything going forward with at least a grain of salt.