Next Monday, Rodriguez will officially announce that Beauchemin has withdrawn from the race and is now supporting Rodriguez. It's a small gift for Pablo, given that some of Beauchemin's organizers categorically refuse to also back Rodriguez.
Pablo is clearly ahead in the race, but he is far from being the candidate of fifty-one percent of the Liberal caucus. The same goes for party members. Rodriguez still has a lot of work to do to win over the undecided. The question is whether another star candidate is coming and if so, Rodriguez will still have a lot of work to do to convince the undecided. If the answer is no, Rodriguez has a good chance of becoming the next leader. On the other hand, if a star candidate emerges, we could see a campaign led by someone other than Pablo. Therein lies the danger for Rodriguez's campaign. We'll see in the coming months. My conclusion is simple: unless another major candidate emerges, Pablo will be the next leader.
We must recognize that the leadership of the Liberal Party is not very prestigious these days. The election campaign will be a three-way battle, not a two-way one. That's not exactly ideal for a party and a leader who want to form the next Quebec government. There's a long way to go. It's always possible, but I don't think it's very likely. And there you have it.
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