AB Results.

Here's what I don't like: calling the tune with only 35% of the vote counted. Just doesn't feel right to do so. The networks should have waited until at least 51% of the vote was in and counted. 

I agree that Smith's strategy was the right one to let Albertans have their say now. To have not allowed a vote would have only fueled separatist feeling in the end.

But this is not over, not by a long shot! The separatists will keep at it, just like in Quebec, which is their right. That's why I want Harper back as CPC leader. He's the only person with enough credibility in the province to successfully put this issue to bed over the long term. IMHO, no one else can accomplish that. Harper is also the guy who can break the logjam on badly needed constitutional change.

So Canada won the battle tonight but she is still a long way from winning the war. Every living, breathing separatist already knows that. You ain't seen nothing yet coming from them. This is far from a done deal.

There Goes Getting Any Sleep.

Just great.

Is It A Mess?

I hope not. No results...

UCP.

The first results are minutes away but if 51-56% of UCP members and supporters are for Leave, then quite obviously they will want to give Smith the heave-ho if Remain wins.

Kind of logical.

CFB Wainwright: What A Horrible Tragedy.

R.I.P

Like The Carney Liberals...

I would proudly sell Mom, Dad and family down the river to win power. That's why I'm relentless in demanding that the leader be replaced as quickly as possible. It's either be ruthless or forever occupy the opposition benches. Which is your choice?

CPC: Cowardly MPs, Get Rid Of Him Now!

Even losers can do basic arithmetic: 137- 63 = 74 seats gone bye, bye.

Carney: Seven More By-elections?

No way. Not a chance. Canadian potential voters, by and large, have given the Liberals a permission slip, if not a blank cheque, to proceed with the government's economic agenda. With a plurality of polls showing the Carney Liberals leading the PP Conservatives by double digits, the Liberals would be crazy not to go to an election at the earliest opportunity.

I would put the odds at seven out of ten that that's where Carney is headed. First, the Liberals outfoxed us by effectively giving Trudeau the heave-ho, and now they could gain up to 75 more seats.

Polling Canada:

Record Liberal Numbers, Conservative Collapse and Alberta’s Independence Question

With the Liberals projected to win 249 seats and the Conservatives just 63, attention also turns to whether Alberta’s independence movement can gain momentum

Record Liberal Numbers, Conservative Collapse and Alberta’s Independence Question

Canada Pulse Insights: Three-Quarters (73%) Say Carney Should Keep Going on His Economic Changes: Only 27% Want an Election First.

"Liberals (46%) Lead Conservatives (34%) by 12 Points; NDP at 9%

With the Alberta referendum looming and federal Parliament returning on Monday, October 19, 2026, a new Canada Pulse Insights national poll finds that three-quarters (73%) of Canadians believe Prime Minister Mark Carney should proceed without interruption with his economic changes—fast-tracking infrastructure projects, relaxing certain environmental reviews, altering labour strike rules and pursuing closer economic ties with Europe—because there is no time to waste during the trade war with the United States.

Just over a quarter (27%) say the changes are too major to make without a direct vote and that he should stop and seek a fresh mandate by calling a national election. Notably, decided Conservative voters are divided: 47% say the Prime Minister should keep going, while 53% say he should stop and call an election.

On the federal ballot, the poll finds the Liberal Party of Canada leading the Conservative Party of Canada by 12 points among decided voters, 46% to 34%. Against the backdrop of the referendum, the two parties are more closely divided in Alberta, with 41% supporting the Carney Liberals and 46% supporting the Poilievre Conservatives."

Well, it's cold comfort for me that only 53% of CPC party supporters are morons. Anyone with a brain already knows that we'll get a thumping in the next election, especially if PP is still our leader. Talk about obvious...man, oh man, so many brain-dead Conservatives.

Israel: 2026 Election Poll Tracker.

From Haaretz:

فلسطين: حان الوقت لكي تقطع مجموعة السبع وغيرها المساعدات عن الضفة الغربية.

هذا الأمر يتجاوز كل الحدود. فقد أرجأ عباس، الذي يُنظر إليه على نطاق واسع على أنه مجرد ديكتاتور فاسد، الانتخابات التشريعية التي كان من المقرر إجراؤها في 28 نوفمبر، إلى العام المقبل. ومن المقرر الآن إجراؤها في سبتمبر 2027، وهو الموعد الذي ستُجرى فيه الانتخابات الرئاسية أيضًا. وقد حاول عباس إلقاء اللوم على إسرائيل، لكن معظم المراقبين يعتبرون ذلك ذريعة واضحة. فما هو الدافع الحقيقي؟ من المرجح أن تفقد حركة «فتح» قبضتها الحديدية على السلطة في انتخابات برلمانية حرة ونزيهة.

وبالتالي، فقد حان الوقت للدول الديمقراطية الكبرى لقطع جميع المساعدات عن فلسطين في أعقاب هذا القرار. يجب أن يسمع عباس الرسالة بصوت عالٍ وواضح. إن تأجيل الانتخابات التشريعية حتى الخريف المقبل أمر غير مقبول.

Palestine: Time For The G7 And Others To Cut Off Aid To The West Bank.

This is beyond disgraceful. Abbas, widely regarded as nothing more than a corrupt dictator, has postponed legislative elections previously scheduled for November 28 until next year. They are now set for September 2027, when a presidential election will also be held. He has tried to pin the tail on the Israeli donkey, but most observers regard that as a thinly veiled pretext. What's the real motive? Fatah would probably lose its stranglehold on power in a free and fair parliamentary election. 

As a result, it's time for the major democracies to cut off all aid to Palestine in the wake of this decision. Abbas needs to get the message loud and clear. Postponing legislative elections until next fall is unacceptable. 

His Boundless Bisexuality.

Now, that should finish him off but good. Smile world, smile. He don't get to check out my ass. LOL.

Trump Gets The Last Laugh While The Rest Of Us Cry.

From #Investing:

"A year after Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to shut off electricity exports to the United States amid escalating trade tensions, the province is turning to American power to help keep its own lights on this winter.

Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has secured 600 megawatts of electricity capacity from a U.S. energy company [Alpha Generation] for six months beginning November 1, 2026. The arrangement comes as Ontario prepares for maintenance-related pressure on its electricity supply, raising questions about the province’s energy independence and its relationship with American suppliers."

Alberta: The FIRST Referendum.

They say turnout could reach 85%. Polls say Remain is slowly pulling away in the final weekend before the vote. Colour me skeptical. I still worry that the Send Ottawa A Message shtick has gained traction in this riskless vote. Again, my gut says the end result will be more competitive than decisive. It's a long shot, but yes, Leave could win depending on voting patterns across the province.

Post-referendum, the big question becomes what happens to Smith, both as premier and party leader? Is she on the way out if Remain wins decisively? Hers is a party perpetually pissed. All those old crank has-beens who mostly haven't ejaculated since Jesus was a pup, but I digress. 

Then there's the next election: how will the referendum vote affect the UCP and the NDP? Will the end result put more wind in the social-democratic hordes' sails? Nenshi must be salivating.

CPC MP Resignation: The Six Stages.

1.    A Trickle;

2.    A Rill;

3.    A Stream;

4.    A River;

5.    A Bankfull Discharge;

6.    A Flood.

For now, we're at Stage TWO.

Was PP really speaking about Albertans and Canadians when he said this, or was he talking about himself?

“Quitting is the easy way out — and Albertans are not quitters.”

You know what that means: regular alcohol consumption by CPC MPs is about to go up substantially.

Abacus: The Leaders.

CPC: Collapsing In The Polls.

Thank you, Pierre Poilièvre!

Why is he still our leader? I'll bet that Carney can't wait to go to an early election. 

Canada: Abacus.

Canada: Léger.

Canada: Liaison.

Canada: Nanos.

Canada: EKOS.

Carney reaffirms Canadian oil and diesel exports to the US in Sunday call with Trump.

Carney folds once again. Tick, tock, tick, tock. That sound you hear is POS Trump roaring with laughter. And the American concessions are? A prized goose egg...they must be really grateful.

Trump Tariffs: What Carney And Poilièvre Won't Tell You.

In short, off-book unfunded liabilities in American dollars equal 120 trillion.  Total aggregate financial obligation of 137 trillion. Total recorded liabilities of 48 trillion. National debt of over 40 trillion. Trump's OBBBA reduced revenue by 5 trillion. A revenue shortfall that is more than 25 times the federal government's annual tax collection. 

So...a world without American tariffs against Canada and other countries is not possible in the future. Whether Trump is president or someone else is, American tariffs against Canada in some form are here to stay.

Canada: Speaking Of Our Dud...

Exactly how many MPs will resign from caucus between now and next spring? In this party, confidence in the leader is decided by a set of feet heading quickly out the door.

Oh, look. Liaison just came out:

I know, let's switch to Équipe Pierre Poilièvre - Pierre Poilièvre Team!!!

BC: Polling Canada.

It's all over the place.

British Columbia provincial polling | Polling Canada

Democratic Tidal Wave In November?

Colour me skeptical, even with polls pegging Trump as the most unpopular modern-day president at 32%, since W's ill-fated 19% during the 2008 financial crisis. Republicans generally, and MAGA particularly, are a curious breed prone to dismiss reality in favour of blind loyalty to the party and the president. Put another way, if you aren't lower-to-middle-class and hurting economically, you're still likely voting for the Republicans. And that isn't an insignificant block of voters.

Trump keeps telling people to act as if his name is on the ballot, and that stirs nothing but glee from Democrats. Sure, in our neck of the woods we're heading for political nirvana, but Trump's call will also rally the comfortable and the well-off. Not just the trillionaire-billionaire-millionaire class.

Then comes the down-ballot: it looks like the Democrats have already locked up the House with projections that they'll win at least 20 seats.  The party must win 4 seats to hold a Senate majority, and that looks doable. The states to watch are Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Maine and Alaska. Either the turnout of the disaffected or the contented will decide these races.

When it comes to state legislative seats, party momentum as a change agent is likely to lose some of its fizz. In the end, down-ballot, a pretty good night for Democrats, but likely not an earth-shattering win. Trump, MAGA and Republicans aren't close to being dead just yet.          

From on high, Donald Trump looks to be in league with James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson and Richard Nixon, but voting-day appearances could be deceiving or disappointing after the polls close.                     

Référendum en Alberta : ne comptez pas sur le taux de participation pour déterminer si le « oui » l’emportera.

Le jour du scrutin, les Albertains auront l’occasion de comparer et de mettre en contraste deux écoles de pensée. La première soutient que les électeurs considèrent l’urne comme un vecteur de changement et que, par conséquent, un taux de participation élevé est synonyme de votes en faveur de la réforme ou du renouveau. À l’inverse, l’argument référendaire suggère que le fait de voter et une forte participation ont tendance à favoriser le statu quo plutôt qu’un changement majeur, voire radical. En substance, la participation peut être un facteur important, bien qu’elle soit peu susceptible de modifier le résultat dans le cadre d’un référendum où le nombre de bulletins de vote est soit moyen, soit élevé.

En Alberta, plus de 80 % des personnes interrogées déclarent avoir l’intention de voter lors du référendum de la semaine prochaine. On s’attend à ce que le taux de participation se situe entre 80 et 85 %; si ces prévisions s’avèrent exactes, la plupart des Albertains admissibles prévoient de faire entendre leur voix aux urnes. Comparons cela aux taux de participation observés lors des deux dernières élections provinciales : 61 % en 2023 et 68 % en 2019.

J’ai fait valoir que ce premier référendum ne devait pas être considéré comme n’entraînant ni conséquences ni risques. Il s’agit d’un vote destiné à envoyer un message à Ottawa, et je pense que ce point de vue favorise les forces du « oui ». Je pense également que le soutien au camp du « oui » est sous-estimé, car certains Albertains ne voudront pas admettre aux sondeurs qu’ils sont favorables à la sécession. J’irais même jusqu’à dire que si tous les éléments s’alignent, le « oui » pourrait remporter une victoire surprise. Bref, un véritable séisme politique.

Et puis, il y a cette question qui fâche : la déclaration de Smith selon laquelle, si le camp du « maintien » l’emporte, les séparatistes peuvent oublier l’idée d’un deuxième référendum. On parle là d’une arme à double tranchant. Ses commentaires visaient à clarifier les choses, mais n’auraient peut-être pas dû être formulés avant le dépouillement des votes. En s’exprimant maintenant, Smith a probablement renforcé la détermination des séparatistes et de leurs alliés. Cela signifie sans aucun doute que, dans une certaine mesure au moins, ses commentaires ont aidé les forces du « oui ».

Et comme si Smith n’avait pas déjà assez de problèmes, plus de 50 % du caucus de l’UCP sont en faveur du « Leave », certains réclamant déjà sa destitution comme cheffe du parti. Aïe! Un retour en arrière vers l’époque de Kenney. Cela pourrait signifier que Smith remporte son référendum, mais qu’elle perd finalement son poste de cheffe de parti et de première ministre. À l’approche du scrutin, les choses ne s’annoncent pas bien pour Smith. Elle pourrait bien finir grande perdante juste après le référendum.

Alberta referendum: don't rely on turnout to determine whether the ‘Yes’ vote will win.

Albertans will have the opportunity to compare and contrast two schools of thought on voting day. The first argues that voters see the ballot box as a change agent and that, consequently, high turnout means ballots cast for reform or renewal. Conversely, the referendum argument suggests that voting and a high turnout tend to favour the status quo rather than major, or even radical, change. In essence, turnout can be a major factor, though it is unlikely to change the outcome in an average-to-high-turnout referendum.

In Alberta, more than 80 percent of those surveyed say they intend to vote in next week’s referendum. Turnout is expected to be between 80 and 85 percent; if these forecasts prove accurate, most eligible Albertans plan on making their voices heard at the ballot box. Let us compare this with the turnout rates seen in the last two provincial elections: 61 percent in 2023 and 68 percent in 2019.

I've argued that this first referendum should be seen as carrying neither consequences nor risks. It is a vote intended to send a message to Ottawa, and I think this view favours the ‘Yes’ camp. I also think that support for the ‘Yes’ side is being underestimated, as some Albertans will not want to admit to pollsters that they favour secession. I would even go so far as to say that if all the pieces fall into place, the ‘Yes’ vote could pull off a surprise win. In short, a veritable political earthquake.

And then there's the real elephant in the room: Smith’s statement that if the ‘Remain’ camp wins, the separatists can forget a second referendum. Talk about a double-edged sword. Her comments were meant to clarify matters, but perhaps should not have come until the vote was counted. By speaking out now, Smith has probably strengthened the resolve of the separatists and their allies. This undoubtedly means that, at least to some extent, her comments have helped the ‘Yes’ side.

And as if Smith didn’t have enough problems already, over 50 percent of the UCP caucus favour ‘Leave’, with some already calling for her removal as party leader. Ouch! A flashback to the Kenney days. It could mean that Smith wins her referendum, but ultimately loses her position as party leader and premier. As the vote approaches, things aren't looking good for Smith. She could end up as the big loser right after the referendum.

PSPP : Un gouvernement à la pièce !

Vous me connaissez bien à présent. Je suis rarement du genre à croire qu’il y aura un accord, officiel ou officieux, avec un parti quelconque pour maintenir la confiance de la chambre. Bref, pas question ! Les ententes seront fragmentaires : un parti par-ci, un autre par-là. Ce qui signifie que les trois partis d’opposition auront probablement l’occasion, à un moment donné, d’appuyer le gouvernement du PQ dans ses travaux parlementaires.

Cela me rappelle avec nostalgie l’époque de Stephen Harper, lorsque le Parti libéral de Michael Ignatieff, en 2009 et 2010, a permis au gouvernement conservateur de survivre lors des votes budgétaires, soit à la suite d’une entente préliminaire, soit grâce à l’absence délibérée d’une trentaine de députés lors du vote.

Du point de vue du PQ, il est de loin préférable d’avoir, du moins en théorie, trois alliés potentiels plutôt qu’un seul. Quoi qu’il en soit, je peux vous garantir une chose : compte tenu du tempérament potentiellement explosif du chef du gouvernement, il devra probablement jeter un long regard sur sa collection de photos de ses enfants à plus d’une occasion. En d’autres termes, la nature quelque peu agitée de sa personnalité contribuera-t-elle à des hauts et des bas potentiels pour ce premier ministre ? Nous pourrions tous être témoins d’une maturation soudaine et profonde de PSPP à la suite des querelles parlementaires. La survie politique du gouvernement pourrait en dépendre à un moment donné.

Canada: Mainstreet.

Mark Carney: 51%

Pierre Poilièvre: 31%

Still haven't ditched the loser? You've made the Liberals' month!

Québec : Research Co.

 

Brasil : Plano Político.

 

Plano Político — Agregador de Pesquisas Eleitorais 2026

Québec : 127QC.com.

Québec : 127QC.com.

Québec : Projection 127.

Québec : Route 127.

Québec : Mon vote.

Enfin, ma décision est prise. Je vais vous en faire part demain soir.

Québec : Liaison.

Québec : Voix du Québec.

Vote-Scope: Brantford - Brant South.

Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations By-Election Forecast — Vote-Scope

Canada : Vote-Scope.

Adieu, Pierre !

Partielles fédérales — neuf courses en attente — Vote-Scope

Canada: Vote-Scope.

Bye, Pierre!

Canada By-Elections — Nine Pending Races — Vote-Scope

Le PQ en perte de vitesse.

Comme je l’ai dit à plusieurs personnes cette semaine, le PQ a atteint son apogée une semaine trop tôt. Selon les derniers sondages et simulateurs de vote, le parti n’atteint plus les 30 %. Le PQ est confronté à deux problèmes : le plus important est son obstination à vouloir tenir un référendum dès son premier mandat – ce dont les électeurs ne veulent pas. C’est là son talon d’Achille, qui risque de faire s’évaporer les voix qui lui permettraient normalement de former un gouvernement majoritaire. Le deuxième problème tient à la répartition démographique des préférences politiques : au moins la majorité des électeurs de la CAQ choisissent le PLQ comme deuxième choix, ce qui n’augure rien de bon pour le PQ.

À mon avis, cette campagne recèle deux « secrets » : le vote silencieux en faveur du PLQ et une concentration plus large du soutien au PCQ dans plusieurs régions du Québec. En d’autres termes, ces électeurs ne semblent pas vouloir voter pour le PQ, principalement en raison de sa position en faveur de la souveraineté.

Je vois le PQ sur une trajectoire descendante qui se poursuivra et s’accélérera peut-être lors du scrutin de demain. Par conséquent, je ne prévois pas de gouvernement majoritaire du PQ. Loin de là.

PSPP sera-t-il le prochain à nous dire qu’il a perdu les élections à cause de son programme national ? Nous verrons si le PLQ se retrouve, plus ou moins par surprise, en position minoritaire. Deux blocs opposés à la souveraineté. Ce n’est pas un signe très positif pour le PQ alors que la campagne touche à sa fin.

Lorsque le chef du PLQ nous dit que la part des voix de son parti est sous-estimée, cela pourrait être le signe d’un revirement des votes en faveur de son parti.

Québec : 127QC.com.

Québec : Mainstreet.

Québec : Pallas.

Qc125.com : sièges.

Québec : Qc125.com.

Une élection référendaire ?

Québec : Léger.

Québec : Voix du Québec.

Québec : Projection 127.

Québec : Route 127.

Québec : 127QC.com

Québec : Vote-Scope.

Projection des sièges

66

36

15

6

4

Qc125.com : Sièges.

Québec : Léger.

Party Name Change!

Maybe we should just call ourselves the Conservative Stockholm Syndrome Party of Canada. Rings pretty true, doesn't it?

I'm Shocked.

The POS' paid bots are trying to log in to my X account. Geez, I wonder why. Go fuck yourselves.

Why The CPC Can't And Won't Win The Next Election.

Those who make up the CPC caucus are a bunch of second-rate politicans who amount to a house of cards. Any sentient politician of the highest calibre instinctively knows the real deal. Others, not so much. Regrettably, no one in our caucus knows down to their bone marrow that the country must always come first, even above a party's political ideology. That is non-negotiable. Only then do the party's interests take precedence over a leader's personal well-being, wishes or agenda. In short, both country and party must come before the individual.

In this caucus and under this leader, one is struck by how cowardly our MPs are. These people have zero guts and no backbone when it comes to reading the riot act to the leader. He can thank his lucky stars I'm not in his OLO because I would be hard-charging within ten minutes of getting in the room, and I can guarantee you that this guy would be on the way out!

How this leader must laugh every day with a caucus that has no more spine than a marshmallow. It's so easy for him to intimidate, bully and bullshit to get his way and keep his job when every political indicator that's important clearly shows us that this guy is a liability and should have already been shown the door.

As contemptible as our caucus is, our membership is even worse: they make excuses for a guy who lost his own seat after twenty years and who will never win an election because most people can't stand the sight of him, not to mention his quirky personality. The membership is as stupid as they come: losing FIVE elections in a row is perfectly fine with them as long as the leader gaslights them into thinking that their collective agenda will one day be part of a CPC government's agenda. 

But back to our MPs: so many regard it as contemptible when they leave office or change parties, and frankly, I agree with that assessment but not for the reason you may think. What's contemptible is seeing them take the easy way out, without holding the leader to account. None of them has the guts to stand up in caucus and tell the leader to his face that he's already done. Remind him that between 50-70 seats are about to go the way of the Dodo bird and that the end result is mostly due to the leader's conduct and how voters see him. 

We need a Heseltine or a Howe, and we can't for dear life find a single resigning MP who isn't a coward with his tail tucked between his legs. That's contemptible in spades. I'm telling you right now that this leader has no honour or sense of duty. He will gladly preside over yet another embarrassing defeat and then, with 100% certainty, he'll tell us that he's staying on as leader, even after losing two elections in a row.

I know this guy like I invented him. He has absolutely no problem with taking all of us down with him. He couldn't care less how many of you lose your seats because he'll be OK in his Alberta riding and in the final analysis, that's the only thing that counts in his world: his meal ticket and his power. All the rest of you are politically expendable. And frankly speaking, when so many of you go down for the count, I'll be laughing and so glad that such a ship of fools has finally been politically decimated. 

Maybe we can find people with more integrity, guts and a sense of what's right in the next political cycle... 

Qc125.com : Sièges.

Québec: Route 127.

Québec : 127QC.com

BC: Ipsos.