Liberals: 41%
Conservatives: 36%
New Democrats: 12%
Bloc Québécois: 7%
Greens: 3%
I'm not questioning the poll per se nor its methodology. Some claim that Angus Reid and Abacus Data can overestimate CPC support, but I think that point is at least debatable. I don't want to consider that as a conclusion already set in stone.
However, what I will argue is that Conservatives have no reason to rejoice now that the gap is only 5 points. If you know anything about the NDP, you're not prone to illusion. It may be Lewis serving as leader, but the party's mentality is still very much Jagmeet's. And all of you know how that goes: when push comes to shove for Carney and the Liberals, the average NDP voter will abandon their party to rush over and prop up the Liberals, just like Singh did. NDPers live by their golden rule: it's not winning power or holding the balance in a minority Parliament. It's keeping the Conservatives out, generally speaking, and PP in particular. So there you have it, no matter how much the Liberals falter, NDP voters will be there in the end to prop up Carney. Sort of like the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
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