Alberta Referendum: Why The Separatists Will Win!

Let’s start with one of the questions, the one concerning separation:

Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta initiate the legal process provided for in the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should secede from Canada?

I want to make it clear and confirm my support for Smith’s decision to organize this initial referendum. Like her, I believe that Albertans must be heard and that, had the government blocked this initiative, the consequences for national unity would have been both immediate and disastrous. 

Let us now turn to the reasons why I think the separatists will win. They start with 35 percent support for their option. Add to that a vague question, which does not require constitutional negotiations on separation to take place immediately after the referendum, and the final outcome will be chaotic, to say the least. 

 I think the separatists will urge federalist Albertans to send a message to Ottawa by voting ‘Yes’, and if they play their cards right, it won’t be too difficult for them to secure the 15 percent plus one vote they need to get a win. People will be told that it's ‘risk-free’ to vote ‘Yes’ now, and then vote ‘No’ later. This will be a distortion of the well-known refrain that ‘the West wants in’. 

If the ‘Yes’ vote wins, the danger to the Canadian federation will grow rapidly: we know Trump and what he is capable of. I expect his Administration to maintain, at the very least, close ties with the Alberta separatists. Trump has his eye on Alberta’s oil and gas; he might therefore suggest that an independent Alberta could benefit from a fast-track process to achieve statehood, which would pose a problem for the ‘remain’ option. If such a scenario were to unfold, I think Albertans would probably welcome this offer and might, in the end, accept Trump’s offer.

 But let’s get back to the question: if the ‘Yes’ vote wins, it will mean that Smith must resign as UCP leader. Let’s not forget that, on the face of it, she is the head of the federalist camp and its principal advocate in the province. Her party’s members are split into two equal camps on this issue. So… if the ‘No’ vote loses, there's no way Smith can stay on as Premier. 

To sum up: I have a sinking feeling that the ‘Yes’ vote will win. And as a result, this vote will change the course of history in Alberta and in the other Canadian provinces and territories.