Why Pierre Should Be Crying Every Night.

In short, I'm right, and caucus is wrong. What a bunch of fools:

Abacus:

54% approve of the Carney government while 29% disapprove.

51% approve of Mark Carney, while 29% disapprove. Only a 22-point lead.

44% DISAPPROVE of Pierre Poilièvre, while 37% approve. A seven-point lead.

CBC News Alberta:

65% favourable view of Mark Carney.

54% favourable view of Pierre Poilièvre.

Even in rural AB, Carney is ahead by 1 point.

Nanos:

Liberals: 45%

Conservatives: 32%

New Democrats: 11%

Bloc québécois: 6%

Greens: 3%

Liaison:

Liberals: 45%

Conservatives: 33%

New Democrats: 9%

Bloc québécois: 6%

Greens: 2%

Carney: The Gift That Keeps On Giving for LIBERALS...

Canada’s Carney is proving to be one of the most popular politicians ever.

Canada’s Carney is proving to be one of the most popular politicians ever

With each passing day and week, Pierre's grip on our party is loosening. The cold, stark reality is finally setting in and even dawning on CPC MPs. 

He will be gone soon enough. It's now only a formality, and a matter of when.

Jivani in DC: Pick Your Scenario.

Let's start with the least controversial scenario: Jivani and several other CPC MPs went to DC to create further dialogue in hopes of reviving CUSMA negotiations, which of late appear to have stalled. So far, the lead Canadian negotiator, LeBlanc, has been largely unsuccessful in making substantive progress in trade negotiations with the Trump Administration. But this interpretation falls apart for two reasons: the obvious one is the fact that the delegation was not headed by the leader. Secondly, Pierre was caught flat-footed. He and his OLO apparently were not informed about the DC visit. 

The next possibility is the Heseltine scenario: Jivani made the trip to raise his profile and broaden his American contacts because he is biding his time but is intent on challenging Poilièvre's leadership further down the road.  I view this as unlikely given how the last Liberal leadership race went for Freeland. Put another way, he or she who strikes the first blow inevitably doesn't become the leader. Lessons learned in the Canadian context.

The last scenario means setting the stage for the arrival of a black knight who will directly take on Pierre. Under those circumstances, a potential leader like Jivani would support the current one and only join the race if Pierre failed to win on a first ballot. In short, the Major-Hurd example. 

IMHO, this isn't the last act in TheJivaniExperienceTM. It's not a second beachhead, but it ain't nothing either. Likely more to come. Stay tuned.

Léger: Oh, It's Just Eleven Points.

No party has a membership more prone to outright delusional behaviour than mine: the CPC. It's such a hoot listening to your average Conservative supporter or member game the process surrounding a snapshot in time where polls reveal almost universally that the CPC is done as dinner when it comes to winning the next election. I concede that they have a point when the argument is made that methodology is an important factor that may skew poll findings to some degree. Well, yes, but even the pollsters who saw a tighter race did not see a CPC win in April of last year. To put it in elementary terms so that the average Conservative can get it: support wasn't there to win on election night, wasn't there a second time between then and now and won't be there on the next election night. 

Back in the old days of Hollywood, they called Bette Davis box-office poison, and that moniker applies in spades now to the CPC leader. Most potential voters did not like Pierre back when, cared for him even less on election night and don't want to have anything to do with him going forward. So, there you go. 

Caucus knows what they have to do and should just get on with it. Ditch him ASAP so we can have at least a fighting chance in the fall election, which seemingly no one sees coming other than yours truly. But it is coming. 

And for the record: LPC: 48%, CPC: 37%, NDP: 6%, BQ: 6% and GP: 2%. 

First They Restructure Committees And Then...Comes The Poison Pill To Provoke A Fall Election.

Carney's Liberals are happier than a pig in shit. They have no doubt that Pierre will be around as CPC leader in the fall, and that fills them with glee, knowing that when they engineer the sudden need for an election, the opposition parties will be unable to stop it.

This Prime Minister doesn't want a bare majority -- he wants one in Mulroney territory, and polls show that the Liberals can get it this fall without breaking a sweat. So...the manufactured election will do two things: give Carney a huge majority and, in addition, rid the Conservatives of our leader. No one in this party will want Pierre to stick around after that, having lost by that point two elections in a row. You know what they say about happy but limited silver linings! 

 

Fréchette : Le parcours de Campbell est-il instructif ?

La dernière fois qu’une femme a pris la tête du gouvernement fédéral, c’était en 1993, lorsque Kim Campbell est devenue Première ministre. Au moment de son accession au pouvoir, le Parti progressiste-conservateur recueillait environ 12 % des intentions de vote. L’ère Mulroney avait causé de graves dommages. 

Après avoir été élue à la tête du parti, Campbell a rapidement gagné 7 points, avec un taux de popularité supérieur à 40 %. De plus, elle a laissé Jean Chrétien loin derrière elle, avec un taux d’approbation de 51 %. Elle devançait ainsi largement Chrétien, qui n’enregistrait que 31 % dans les sondages. 

Malgré sa popularité, Campbell n’a finalement pas réussi à traduire son soutien personnel en gains pour son gouvernement. Les libéraux ont pris la tête au cours de l’été, dépassant le PPC avec 40 %, soit une avance de 4 points.

À l'automne et pendant la campagne électorale, cet écart s'est creusé, le PLC formant un gouvernement majoritaire avec 42 % des voix, contre 16 % pour le PPC. Ce dernier, qui détenait auparavant un gouvernement majoritaire de 169 sièges, s'est retrouvé réduit à 2 sièges après les élections. En bref, Jean Charest et Elsie Wayne.

La leçon à en tirer est la suivante : même avec une forte popularité personnelle, rien ne garantit que ce soutien individuel sera à l'avantage de ton parti. Fréchette pourrait devoir faire face à ce genre de scénario, s'il venait à se produire lors des prochaines élections.

Armed Attack at the Washington DC Hilton.

Frankly, I didn't think that Trump had it in him: he behaved with class and moderation when speaking to the press once back at the White House. Three times. Simply incredible. Trump must have been born under a lucky star.

White House Correspondents' Dinner: Did the Gunman have a Plastic Gun?

Wow.

Carney's Canada-U.S. Economic Relations Advisory Committee.

This is pure gold for Carney. It reeks of bipartisanship, much to PP's dismay. Among its members are Charest, O'Toole and Raitt, formerly associated with our party, in one case nominally. 

And there's more: the unintentional but obvious subtext goes in two exquisite directions. It gives the middle finger to Harper and Poilièvre in spades and, even more deliciously, is an unanticipated but apparent vote of non-confidence in Pierre's leadership. So, what else is new?!

Léger : PQ 31%, PLQ 28%, CAQ 17%, PCQ 14% et QS 8%.

Le message suivant, adressé à Charles Milliard, n’a aucun lien avec le sondage Léger mentionné en titre. Bref, Charles, tu me mets vraiment en joli tabarnak ! Tout d’abord, tu dois comprendre deux choses : tu es le chef et c’est à tes députés de suivre la ligne du parti et les directives de ton cabinet. Voilà le premier point. Ce n’est pas ton rôle d’être en consultation constante avec ton caucus ni de céder à ses demandes sur les grands enjeux qui préoccupent le Québec et la population majoritaire. L’autre question concerne le niveau d’engagement actif non seulement dans la défense de la langue française, mais aussi dans son renforcement par le biais de nouvelles politiques linguistiques jugées essentielles par la grande majorité des Québécois. En d’autres termes, promouvoir le français sans en assurer le progrès et son expansion à ce niveau est inacceptable pour la plupart des électeurs francophones, qui sont les concitoyens des anglophones et des allophones. Le niveau d’engagement du PLQ doit, à tout le moins, égaler celui de la CAQ pour être crédible en tant qu’option politique sérieuse. Et j’irais même plus loin : pour remporter les prochaines élections, nous, au Parti libéral, devrons surpasser la CAQ sur la question du français, de sa protection et de son épanouissement. C’est ce qui sera en jeu lors de la prochaine campagne électorale.

Permettez-moi également de te rappeler que ce n’est pas le rôle d’un caucus parlementaire de dicter la ligne politique du parti ou la position du chef sur une question qui fait la une de l’actualité ou qui se révèle prioritaire pour le Québec à un moment donné. Si l’un de nos députés n’est pas en mesure de se rallier à la ligne politique du parti et de son chef, eh bien, il appartiendra à toi de trouver un nouveau candidat dans cette circonscription. Prends ta place, sans t'affirmer avec la timidité d’un nouveau-né. Comme on dit en anglais : this is big picture stuff, c’est une question d’ensemble, et si le chef et ses députés ne parviennent pas à rassurer le public sur leur priorité absolue qui est le français et les enjeux qui y sont liés, nous n’aurons aucune chance de former le prochain gouvernement. Les Québécois recherchent un champion. Jusqu’à présent, la population ne te considère pas comme le choix naturel. Câlice, le temps presse. Agis avant qu’il ne soit bien trop tard pour le parti. Le mois d’octobre approche à grands pas.

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Nanos Numbers State The Obvious.

Unless you've been unconscious over the last year, none of this should come as a surprise to you. The latest polls reveal one thing: this polling trend, where the CPC is down, is not recoverable for the party. Pierre is nothing more than a milestone around our necks, and as long as he stays as leader, the lower our polling numbers will go.

Nanos has the Liberals first with 46 percent, a whopping fourteen-point lead over the Conservatives. FOURTEEN points! The NDP number is rising in the wake of their leadership race and now stands at 12 percent, with the BQ polling 5 percent and the GP one point behind. 

It doesn't take a genius to draw your own conclusion. Here's mine: the LPC is holding steady while the New Democrats rise and the CPC stagnates in the low thirties. Couple that with the latest rumour coming out of Ottawa that a polling firm predicts the Conservatives could lose as many as fifty seats if an election were held today. 

So, I remind you again that it's either his ass or most of yours. Pick a lane now and come out publicly against the leader if you want this party to win the next election. Pierre is deliberately hanging on and doesn't give a shit what any of you think. Act accordingly. Dump him now.

Carney: What A Loser.

He won't even get off his ass to reply in QP and admit that he was wrong. How many times will it take before he honours us with an answer? This guy is accountable to no one in his own mind. And of course, the countless dolts will lap it all up and find a million reasons to make excuses for his behaviour. What a fucking joke but sadly, the joke is on all of us.

Sondage Léger : Le PQ en tête.

PQ : 31%

PLQ : 28%        

CAQ : 17%

PCQ : 14%

QS : 8%

Sondage Léger : Meilleur premier ministre - Québec.

PSPP :    23 %

CM :       17%

CF :        16%

ED :        11%

RG :        4%

Ne sait pas :    30%        

POILIÈVRE OUT!: We've Made A Beachhead!

Angus Reid made my day: we are now at thirty percent of past CPC voters who want Pierre out. When it comes to the general public, sixty percent view him unfavourably while forty-five percent blame him for pushing people away [out] of his party. And those are the people who vote. Man, this is great. 

Time is Pierre's most powerful enemy. It will continue to move the numbers against his leadership. We will get him out. It's only a matter of a few months. Each floor-crosser was a vote of non-confidence in the leader. Let's wait and see if there will be any more.

58% of past CPC voters stand by Poilievre’s long-term leadership, but increasing numbers say he should go - Angus Reid Institute

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Now You Know Why Only A Handful Of CPC MPs Defended Pierre.

Most of the caucus is angry and frustrated. What party in its right mind would keep a leader who couldn't even win his own seat, a seat he held for TWENTY years? The writing is already on the wall. This will play out over the next three to four months, and in the end, Pierre will be gone. It will most resemble the playbook used against Trudeau: one MP, then a trickle, followed by a half-dozen and finally one-third to one-half of caucus. Once we hit that mark, no one will be able to save Pierre's leadership. He'll be done as dinner. Hopefully, by then, he'll have put his ego in check and have the decency and humility to just go. But I won't be holding my breath waiting for him to leave. So, keep pushing and with each passing week, push harder!

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Nanos Breaks Down The Real Issue Pertaining To Pierre's Leadership.

© Nanos Research.

Preferred PM

52%▼2Carney25%▲2Poilievre14%Don't know4%▲1Lewis3%Blanchet2%May

Nanos Research federal poll | 2026-04-10

PLQ : Sondage Pallas.

Ah, on voit ici se dessiner le début d'une tendance où le PLQ est en tête, mais cette fois avec trois points d’avance sur le PQ. Ce dernier n’obtient que 29 % des intentions de vote. Le PCQ et la CAQ sont au coude à coude à 14 %, tandis que QS est à la traîne avec 11 %.

Avant tout, il est dans la nature même des libéraux de prendre le pouvoir, quel qu’en soit le coût ou l’impact préalable sur leur coalition. Traduction : ce n’est qu’une question de temps avant que Milliard ne se retourne contre les communautés anglophones et culturelles. Peu importe si les anglos sont déjà en révolte au sein du parti, la réplique dans la langue de Shakespeare sera « so what ». 

S'il doit se contorsionner comme un bretzel pour remporter les prochaines élections, je peux vous assurer que Milliard n'y verra que du positif. Après tout, les membres minoritaires de la coalition du PLQ sont déjà pris pour acquis et, en substance, tenus en otage. Ils n'ont nulle part où aller. En bref, ils feront partie de ceux qui subiront des dommages collatéraux à la suite de la prochaine campagne électorale.

POILIÈVRE OUT!: CPC Supporters Will Start Lying To Pollsters.

Act 3

This will be the first pressure tactic used by dissident Conservatives to put pressure on Pierre to go: they will begin deliberately lying to pollsters, telling them that they intend to vote Liberal in the next election to further inflate Liberal gains in the polls. Once CPC numbers reach a negative tipping point, dissidents will have all the ammunition they need to demand that the Reform Act be dusted off.

 

POILIÈVRE OUT!: Pierre Blows The "Very Badly Educated" in Economics Schtick.

Act 2

I can picture Katy rolling her eyes: he just doesn't get it. Pierre should know by now that people are always on the lookout for a reason to dismiss both the leader and his argument, and he played right into that Liberal narrative. First off, in Comm 101, you acknowledge the Prime Minister's degrees from Harvard and Oxford. Then you explain how he's a Keynesian, and only then do you put your main arguments forward while emphasizing at the same time what Austrian economic theory professes and why it is correct in its analysis of the digitization of money and the relationship to increased inflation via what is commonly but erroneously termed "money printing." Finally, you make the case that there's a direct causal relationship between Keynesianism and beyond core inflation historical statistics. 

I imagine there's no hope that Pierrre will ever get this right...