Nanos Research.

Mark Carney remains the most commonly selected choice for prime minister at 54.0%, while Pierre Poilievre is at 18.2%.

Liaison Strategies.

 

Nanos Research.

LPC: 45%

CPC: 30%

NDP: 13%

BQ: 7%

GPC: 5%

Liaison Strategies.

Liberals: 44%

Conservatives: 35%

New Democrats:11%

Bloc Québécois: 5%

Greens: 2%

GHIB: Steam Is Coming Out Of Their Heads at GM.

Ford is on the ball! Gretchen crossed in a Mustang.

TFF.

CPC: Why We Keep Losing.

So far, it's four in a row, which normally is unacceptable in a political party. Meanwhile, the Liberals keep winning because every time one of their leaders loses, he has the good sense to resign. Think Martin, Dion and Ignatieff. 

In this party, it's keep the faith and remain likely deluded. OK, fine. Pierre is still leader for one reason only: his self-esteem issues. Without that job he thinks he's nothing politically and he's dead on. But hey, the membership wants what the membership wants, so to use a Carneyism: who cares! It is what it is. Just go with the flow.

CPC: Pierre's Leadership.

I'm throwing in the towel. I have no more time to waste on this. Caucus won't move and Pierre won't be going anywhere, so life's too short as they say.

I don't know if Kory and the others are fronting for Ford but it could be. Ford probably already feels the bit between his teeth but this party isn't the Ontario PCs.

And even if he runs in the next cycle, will Darth Vader block him like happened to Charest? 

I'm not saying Pierre can't win but I think he won't win so there you have it. If I'm right, our job collectively is to just take the hit in the next campaign and then move on under new leadership.

And so it goes.

 

PLQ : L’affaire Baudelot : encore un chef qui manque de discernement.

Eh bien, voyons voir… On ne tient pas une candidate pour responsable du passé lointain de son conjoint alors que celui-ci est irréprochable depuis des décennies ! De plus, c’est un principe fondamental de notre système judiciaire que toute personne est présumée innocente en cas de « doute », à défaut de preuve qui contredise ses actes ou ses déclarations.

Et pire encore, qu’attend Milliard pour accueillir à nouveau Marwah au sein du caucus parlementaire ? Il va sans dire qu’elle a déjà passé le test dit de « tolérance zéro » du parti.

Ce n'est pas uniquement notre chef qui a le droit de parler avec l'UPAC ou le DGE.

Outhouse Wants To Hear From The Base.

Aren't we supposed to be hearing from him, you know, the guy who already has a master plan to win? 

He won't be getting input from me. Outhouse already knows what I think.

Second White House Correspondents Dinner 2026: Trump Is Nothing More Than A Running Gag.

The irony was simply delicious watching Trump at the Waldorf Astoria Washington, DC, the hotel that Trump built, reduce himself to the level of a running joke. His appearance there marked the final swan song of his presidency, with MAGA hordes and other assorted Republicans deserting him in ever-increasing numbers with each passing day. 

Any astute political observer could have told you that it inevitably would end like this. Trump, the so-called human wrecking ball, sealed the deal on Day One of his first Administration. Everything Trump touches ends one way or another in disaster. 

But best of all is watching that sinking feeling settling in Vance and Rubio's minds that their part in this Administration is the modern equivalent of the scarlet letter -- persona non grata for a future party nomination. That's the only reason why Republican governors and senators are still smiling occasionally.

But back to Trump: in an ideal world, no one would shake the hand of such a person. But we're dealing with Americans here, a people that, at least in formal settings, puts civility above all else. Trump took advantage of that in offering his hand to WSJ reporters and, in true American spirit, they reciprocated, albeit reluctantly. I'm not going to condemn them for that. 

That farcical, surreal scene served as the perfect epitome for this Administration. January 20, 2029 can't come soon enough for most Americans. Trump is still breaking polling records, just not in the way he liked. Put more succinctly, it's already going to hell in a handbasket. And so it will drift until the midterms. Americans will once again have their say. Their message likely will speak louder and more clearly than any of Trump's. Fitting, in the end. 

Brazil: Flavio Shows Himself To Be Unfit To Be President.

It was obvious even before Flavio became the Liberal Party's candidate. Most of the center-right didn't want to have anything to do with him. That speaks volumes. And to have Flavio declare that the next election is a fight between good and evil is over the top. Who is he thinking about? Those who are rich and privileged or everyone else? Most Brazilians have no hope of ever living like Flavio and his family. So, that statement should be immediately disqualifying, at least in the eyes of your average Brazilian.

And to have foreign leaders weigh in against Lula. That supposedly isn't right. Trump will no doubt be thrilled to see Netanyahu and, more importantly, Milei add their two cents. But ironically, in Canada, when Ontario Premier Ford does the same, criticizing the Trump Administration, that's a terrible no-no. Trump, the hypocrite, never changes. 

Brasil: Flávio está se mostrando inadequado para a presidência.

Isso já era óbvio mesmo antes de Flávio se tornar o candidato do Partido Liberal. A maior parte da centro-direita não queria ter nada a ver com ele. Isso diz muito. E a alegação de Flávio de que a próxima eleição é uma batalha entre o bem e o mal carece de credibilidade. Em quem ele está pensando? Nos ricos e privilegiados, ou no resto da população? A maioria dos brasileiros não tem a menor esperança de algum dia viver como Flávio e sua família. Portanto, essa declaração deveria ser motivo para desqualificação imediata, pelo menos aos olhos do brasileiro comum.

E alguns líderes estrangeiros estão se manifestando contra Lula. Supostamente, isso não é aceitável na política interna. Trump, sem dúvida, ficará encantado ao ver Netanyahu e, mais importante ainda, Milei se manifestando. Mas, ironicamente, no Canadá, quando o primeiro-ministro de Ontário, Ford, faz o mesmo, criticando o governo Trump, isso é considerado uma interferência imperdoável na política americana. Trump, o hipócrita, nunca muda.

Carney Chokes: No Late Fall Federal Election.

Everyone who knows anything about politics can quickly figure out what this means: Carney choked because internal Liberal polling is simply dreadful, declining rapidly, but with the LPC still in the lead. Barely. As a result, the PMO just announced byelections in Beaches-East York, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord and North Vancouver-Capilano on August 31.

Another opening for PP. Let's see what he can do between now and then. Can we win at least one riding? The results will be a telling barometer for our party's electoral future. Personally, I would bet the farm and deploy almost all of our resources in Beaches-East York. Why? In short, as Ontario goes, so goes the country. 

GHB: Am I The Only One Who Predicts That?...

I think by now that we know exactly who Trump is. He's apparently pissed off because the Americans were not invited to the opening ceremony last Friday. So, won't be surprised if the bridge doesn't open tomorrow at noon. 

The Deep State.

They're running out of patience and don't like serially being fucked over. But he is far too stupid to recognize that. It won't end well just like last time.

Is Burnham About To Commit Political Suicide?

In short, the proposed "death tax" would help fund an NCS.  Higher taxes on inherited estates and combining that tax with the capital gains tax. Double taxation is never the way to go, and how these proposed reforms will affect the middle class will be key to Labour's future electoral prospects. Given the choice, I would head toward corporate tax rates instead. I would raise the main corporate rate for UK-based and incorporated companies. 

Remember that Farage is in the wings, positively salivating. He expects Burnham to make him PM. Please note Nigel was at -28% in 2024. Two months ago he was at -15%. Now, he's back at -27%. Burnham needs to keep those swings top of mind. The Clacton special election is next month, and Farage is likely to win. None of the major parties are contesting that byelection. 

Looks like Nigel and Marine both learned to ply their trade in the EP! Personal capacity, indeed.

Ford Is Feeling His Federal Oats And It Shows. LOL.

Conventional wisdom had it that Ford wasn't interested. I was skeptical of that. Ego tends to call the tune in the end, and despite abysmal French, it looks like Ford is ready to go if the opportunity presents itself. Ford doesn't want to be the only gal or guy fronting for Team Canada. That speaks volumes. As a result, in my book, it isn't any longer a matter of if but more a question of when. That should keep the next CPC leadership race interesting, to say the least. And the elephant in the room will be the same as last time: what will Darth Vader do?

GHB: Why Carney's Redemption Is Unlikely.

At least this keeps PP in a good mood. He has correctly assessed that Carney is now personally vulnerable in a big way and will try to make the most of it. Who can blame him!

People laughed when I quickly pegged Carney as a lightweight who was in over his head. Well, the GHB fiasco is proof enough of that. This has badly hurt Carney and the Liberals. The Prime Minister is coming off as politically impotent, and that means serious trouble down the pike. 

As usual, Ford has correctly set the mood: give 'em what you get and more, but the premiers generally and Danielle Smith specifically don't have the stomach for this fight. No doubt Ford wants to use electricity, oil, gas, minerals, you name it, but Smith will put the kibosh on that for sure. For all practical purposes, Smith has already boxed Carney in. 

So...don't expect anything substantive or seriously consequential from the feds in the next two weeks. We need to fight like hell, but that simply ain't in the cards. Expect Pierre to make the moves, but will it change the political landscape in a major way? Maybe. 

That POS!

I agree with Ford: match them tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar and don't fucking cave this time.

Starmer Is Gone.

Starmer headed a government and still had the decency to go with his self-respect intact. But not PP. He's hanging on to his job for dear life because without that job Pierre is nothing politically. He's the next Justin. Make no mistake. Pierre will eventually be gone as well. Between now and then it will be a daily drip to political oblivion.