NATO Troops In Ukraine: Either Way Putin Loses.

Putin is livid at the prospect of NATO troops possibly eventually ending up in Ukraine. He's threatened a nuclear response should that happen. It's not unreasonable to suggest that this kind of rhetoric first floated by Macron and now by Sikorski, likely with Tusk's tacit consent, is a game-changer designed to prevent Russia from overrunning and occupying Ukraine over the long term. Putin likely is way beyond boiling mad. 

Of course, this is a dangerous game of one-upmanship: if we learned nothing other than this from the disastrous Vietnam War, it was that military advisers are the first stepping-stone to actual frontline military commitment. No one knows that better than Putin. 

So, NATO is being both clever and risky. We're playing a high-stakes game for all the marbles, with the European continent as the ultimate prize. Exactly what flavour of advisers does Brussels intend to send at some yet-to-be-determined point of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict?

Let's game it out: you could send strictly only military advisers who would largely remain in Khiv and who'd advise Zelenskyy on weapons and tactics. You know, vanilla-white types. Or, you could go the other way and send small contingents of ground troops as a symbolic gesture re: Ukrainian territorial integrity. Limited, black forces. 

Either way, Putin's problem would flow from any kind of NATO casualties on Ukrainian soil. That would inevitably put NATO's ground forces in escalation mode, and that would neither serve the Kremlin's interests nor preclude a widening of the war where NATO becomes a direct party. In short, neither of these scenarios is good for Russia or her plans in theatre. Putin knows that, with NATO all-in, he can't beat Ukraine. That's an iron-clad fact. 

As a result, it's deliciously ironic how holding up Ukraine funding in DC increases the chances significantly of NATO involvement, to some extent, on the ground in Ukraine. For Putin, that would be a no-win scenario. Quiet, deliberate escalation is what Putin fears most. And without a doubt, Putin is exactly on target.